Stanford Cardinal at Notre Dame Fighting Irish

I am backing Notre Dame as a short home underdog in a game that means everything to their postseason hopes. The 13-16 record and ugly underlying efficiency metrics for the Irish are hiding the reality of their current roster. A lot of that data, including a massive blowout loss to Duke, came while freshman Jalen Haralson was out of the lineup. He returned against NC State and immediately dropped 25 points, sparking Notre Dame to a 96-point performance. With Haralson back alongside Cole Certa, who has been averaging 21.0 points over his last seven games, this Irish offense looks completely different than the unit that struggled through February.

Meanwhile, the market is overvaluing Stanford based on a pair of recent home wins against SMU and Pittsburgh. The 18-11 Cardinal's profile looks great in Palo Alto, but they have been a completely different team on the highway. They are just 1-4 in their last five true road games, posting a negative average scoring margin and recently dropping a game to a struggling Cal team. Stanford relies heavily on Ebuka Okorie for their offensive production, and Micah Shrewsberry's defense already proved they can scheme to take him away, holding Okorie to just seven points on 3-of-14 shooting in a defensive slugfest back in December.

This is the definition of a situational spot. Notre Dame is playing at Purcell Pavilion with their ACC Tournament lives on the line—they absolutely have to have this game to stay in the 15-team field. You have a desperate home team whose power rating is artificially suppressed by recent injury absences, catching points against a Stanford team that has consistently failed to replicate its offensive success on the road. The Irish have the defensive blueprint to slow down the Cardinal, and now they finally have the offensive firepower to close the deal. Take the points with the home team.