Creighton Bluejays at Butler Bulldogs

The 12.5-point spread in this matchup is a direct overreaction to the 58-42 result we saw in the first leg of today's rare same-day doubleheader. Recency bias has heavily inflated this number, pricing in the assumption that Butler will repeat their dismal 32 percent shooting performance. In conference play, beating a familiar opponent by double digits twice in the span of a few hours is an incredibly difficult task, and the market has pushed this line too far toward the road team.

While Creighton managed minutes slightly better in the afternoon game, covering a near 13-point road spread requires a level of offensive efficiency that is hard to sustain in a fatigue-heavy environment. Both teams operate at a moderate tempo, and today's first meeting was an absolute grind with only 100 combined points. In a slow-paced, low-possession game, catching double digits with the home team is mathematically advantageous, as it limits the number of opportunities the favorite has to build and extend a massive lead.

Thad Matta's squad is highly unlikely to be held to 42 points again. Michael Ajayi has been a consistent interior force all season, leading the conference in double-doubles, and he still managed to generate solid production in the first game. With standard shooting variance pointing toward positive regression for Finley Bizjack and the rest of the Butler backcourt on their home floor, the Bulldogs have enough baseline offense to keep this second meeting much closer. Grab the points with the home underdog in a spot where the spread has simply run away from the underlying season-long data.