Iowa State Cyclones at Arizona Wildcats

It is Senior Night and a designated White Out at the McKale Center as the No. 2 Arizona Wildcats host the No. 6 Iowa State Cyclones with an outright Big 12 regular-season title on the line. Arizona is playing its best basketball of the season right now, fresh off dominant wins over Baylor and Kansas.

This matchup exposes a massive structural flaw for Iowa State. The Cyclones have struggled to defend the paint all year, ranking 113th nationally in opponent two-point field goal percentage. That is a nightmare scenario against an Arizona offense that relentlessly attacks the rim, taking 73.1 percent of its shots from inside the arc. The Wildcats also hold a massive advantage on the glass, boasting a 35.5 percent offensive rebounding rate compared to Iowa State's 28.0 percent. With Motiejus Krivas and Tobe Awaka rotating inside, Arizona is going to generate a staggering number of second-chance opportunities and trips to the free-throw line.

Depth and health also heavily favor the home team. Arizona is back to a full nine-man rotation following the recent return of five-star freshman Koa Peat, who immediately produced 12 points and seven rebounds in his first game back. The Wildcats' bench is contributing 24.5 points per game on over 60 percent effective field goal shooting. Conversely, Iowa State relies heavily on its starters, getting just 6.5 points per game from a bench unit that is currently thinned out by injuries to Xzavion Mitchell and Anthony Rise.

Iowa State has a deadly perimeter threat in Milan Momcilovic, who is shooting over 50 percent from three, but trying to trade road jumpers for interior layups is a losing formula. Arizona's engine, freshman guard Brayden Burries, is averaging 22 points and 8.5 rebounds over his last two games and will push the tempo all night. The Wildcats are just too big, too deep, and too healthy. I am laying the points with Arizona on their home floor.