Ole Miss Rebels at Auburn Tigers

This is the ultimate "get right" spot for an Auburn team that desperately needs a convincing win to stabilize its NCAA Tournament resume. While the Tigers have struggled recently, they are facing an Ole Miss squad that is in complete free fall, having lost 10 straight games while surrendering an average of 92.6 points over their last five outings. The Rebels' defensive collapse is structural, not just a slump, and it matches up poorly against Auburn's greatest strength.

The deciding factor here is the whistle. Auburn ranks 2nd nationally in free throw attempts and 3rd in makes, a statistic that spells trouble for an Ole Miss defense that head coach Chris Beard recently criticized for committing "dumb fouls." Keyshawn Hall, fresh off an 11-of-11 performance from the line, should live at the charity stripe tonight. When you combine Auburn's ability to score with the clock stopped and Ole Miss's inability to get stops in live action, the path to a double-digit victory becomes clear.

History also supports this number. Auburn already defeated Ole Miss by 12 points in Oxford earlier this season. Bringing the matchup back to Neville Arena, where the Tigers have a significant home-court advantage and Ole Miss is just 2-10 on the road, only widens the gap. Expect Auburn's elite offense (#14 AdjOE) to overwhelm a porous Rebels defense, using the free-throw line to extend the lead late and cover the number.