NC State Wolfpack at Notre Dame Fighting Irish

We have a fascinating spot in South Bend today where the market seems to be overthinking a pair of recent blowouts. Both teams are coming off embarrassing losses—NC State couldn't hit a shot against Virginia, and Notre Dame got run out of their own gym by Duke—but only one of these squads has the structural stability to bounce back immediately.

The biggest mismatch on the floor is ball security. NC State is elite at protecting the rock, boasting a turnover rate of just 11.9%. Notre Dame sits on the other end of the spectrum at 14.8%, and that number is even more concerning without their primary point guard Markus Burton. While freshman Jalen Haralson returns today, asking him to fix a broken offense after missing three games is a big ask, especially since he committed 15 turnovers in his last three active starts. NC State’s ability to maximize possessions while the Irish cough it up should build a natural cushion.

Offensively, this is a prime 'buy low' spot for the Wolfpack. They shot a season-low 29% last game, but they remain the 11th-best three-point shooting team in the country at 39.0%. Facing a Notre Dame defense ranked #123 in efficiency that just surrendered 100 points is the perfect remedy for a shooting slump. Paul McNeil Jr. is already heating up with 22 points in that loss, and Ven-Allen Lubin has a massive advantage inside against a depleted Irish frontcourt. NC State is 6-2 on the road in the ACC for a reason—they travel well and handle business. Lay the points.