Georgetown Hoyas at Xavier Musketeers

This "Battle for the Basement" in the Big East might look like a coin flip between two 13-15 teams on the surface, but the offensive disparity at the Cintas Center tells a completely different story. Xavier's record is deceptive; while they have lost three straight, their offense remains potent, averaging nearly 83 points per game in those losses. They are a different animal at home, boasting a 12-6 record compared to Georgetown's 4-7 mark on the road.

The most glaring issue for the Hoyas is their inability to score without KJ Lewis. Since his absence became indefinite, Georgetown's offense has cratered, managing just 47 points against Seton Hall and 60 against Marquette in recent outings. You simply cannot trade baskets with a Xavier team that ranks 20th nationally in assists and pushes the pace to 70 possessions per game if you struggle to break 60. Tre Carroll has been electric for the Musketeers, averaging over 21 points in his last five games, and he gives Xavier a go-to scorer that Georgetown currently lacks.

Xavier already proved they could handle the Hoyas, winning 80-77 on the road back in December. flipping that matchup to Cincinnati—where role players shoot better and the crowd is a factor—should be worth significantly more than the 2.5-point adjustment implied by this line. Add in Georgetown's documented tendency to fade in the second half due to a thin rotation, and this sets up perfectly for Xavier to pull away late.