BYU Cougars at West Virginia Mountaineers

The point spread in this matchup is glaring. You have the No. 19 ranked BYU Cougars, sitting at 20-8, laying only 1.5 points against an unranked, 16-12 West Virginia team currently riding a three-game losing streak. The public will reliably back the ranked team at a near-pick'em price, but the oddsmakers are clearly pricing in a fundamental flaw with the Cougars right now.

The root of that flaw is the mid-February season-ending injury to guard Richie Saunders. Without him, BYU's perimeter defense has completely unraveled. Over their last five road games, the Cougars have surrendered 90 or more points three times, and they are coming off a disastrous 97-84 home loss to UCF where they allowed the Knights to shoot 58.3 percent from beyond the arc. Head Coach Kevin Young publicly criticized his team's defensive intensity as soft.

This exact defensive vulnerability is the remedy West Virginia needs. The Mountaineers have struggled offensively for much of the season, ranking 163rd in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency, but their top scorer, Honor Huff, just snapped out of a slump by hitting six three-pointers on his way to 20 points against Oklahoma State. Going up against a reeling BYU perimeter defense, Huff and the Mountaineers are perfectly positioned to find their offensive rhythm.

Furthermore, this game presents a massive clash of styles that heavily favors the home team. BYU wants a track meet, operating at a fast tempo of 70.0. West Virginia wants to grind the game to a halt in the half-court, playing at a sluggish 62.6 tempo. In the Coliseum, the Mountaineers are equipped to dictate that pace. Despite a recent slip-up against Oklahoma State, West Virginia still boasts a top-30 adjusted defensive efficiency. Their entire defensive focus will be on making life difficult for freshman AJ Dybantsa, who has been forced to carry a superhuman load for BYU, averaging nearly 30 points and playing close to 40 minutes a night over his last five games. If West Virginia can turn this into a slow, physical half-court game, BYU simply does not have the depth or the defensive stops right now to win it on the road, where they are already a mediocre 3-4 in Big 12 play. West Virginia started the season 13-0 at home before hitting this recent wall. They are desperate, they are playing in their own building, and they are facing a BYU team that is actively bleeding on the defensive end.