Kansas State Wildcats at Texas Tech Red Raiders

The Kansas State Wildcats take their new interim-coach energy on the road to United Supermarkets Arena to face a Texas Tech squad trying to reinvent itself. The 12.5-point spread reflects the Texas Tech team that built an elite 27.6 Net Rating, but that rating was anchored by JT Toppin. With Toppin and his 21.8 points and 10.8 rebounds per game out for the season, the Red Raiders' ceiling has completely changed. We saw the immediate impact in their last game, a 72-67 loss to Arizona State where Tech turned the ball over 17 times without their primary frontcourt stabilizer. Covering a massive double-digit spread requires high-end efficiency and margin-building consistency, which is incredibly difficult to sustain when you are actively scrambling to replace a superstar and leaning on smaller rotation players. Meanwhile, Kansas State's 11-15 overall record hides a startling reality about their active roster. Driven by the nation's second-leading scorer in P.J. Haggerty at 23.7 points per game, the Wildcats' starting five actually averages slightly more points at 69.3 and shoots a higher effective field goal percentage at 58.8 percent than Texas Tech's starters, who sit at 69.1 points and 55.1 percent eFG. Following the coaching change to Matthew Driscoll, K-State just dropped 90 points on Baylor while shooting 56.7 percent from the floor. Even expecting some offensive regression from that emotional high, the Wildcats possess the high-end perimeter scoring talent with Haggerty and Nate Johnson to consistently trade baskets. The market is pricing this game like the Texas Tech of January, but without Toppin to dominate the interior, 12.5 points is simply too many to lay.