Creighton Bluejays at St. John's Red Storm

Madison Square Garden will be electric as the hottest team in the Big East puts its 12-game conference winning streak on the line against a struggling Creighton squad. The deciding factor in this matchup is a severe structural mismatch on the interior and on the glass.

When these two teams met in Omaha last month, St. John's dismantled Creighton 90-73 because of sheer physical dominance. The Red Storm won the rebounding battle 39-26 and suffocated the Bluejays by allowing zero second-chance points. That physical advantage only magnifies at home. With Creighton's frontcourt rotation already thinned by long-term injuries, St. John's elite 34.5 percent offensive rebound rate is going to be a massive problem. Zuby Ejiofor comes into this game averaging 16.0 points and 7.3 boards on 61.8 percent true shooting, and Creighton simply lacks the depth to contain him.

The efficiency gap between these teams right now is staggering. St. John's boasts a massive +24.0 season Net Rating, while Creighton sits at +10.8. Furthermore, Creighton's recent form is concerning, as they enter this game on a 2-3 skid. The pace of play also spells trouble for the Bluejays. St. John's operates at the 17th fastest tempo nationally, forcing opponents into high-possession track meets. When you combine that pace with the rebounding disparity, St. John's is going to generate significantly more scoring opportunities.

Laying double digits in a conference game requires strong evidence, but the matchup data here points entirely in one direction. St. John's already proved they can exploit these exact weaknesses on the road, and the numbers say they will overwhelm Creighton again at MSG.