Memphis Tigers at UAB Blazers

Bartow Arena serves as the backdrop for an AAC rivalry clash where UAB looks to snap a multi-game home skid against a Memphis squad seeking redemption after a last-second loss to Tulane.

Memphis possesses the most dominant unit in this game: a defense ranked 39th nationally in Adjusted Efficiency (100.1). They effectively neutralize perimeter-centric teams by forcing difficult, contested looks. Against UAB, whose offensive rating (110.3) sits outside the top 140, this defensive wall becomes the decisive factor. The Tigers specialize in suppressing opponent shooting efficiency, and their ability to control the glass through Aaron Bradshaw and Julius Thedford should limit the second-chance opportunities UAB needs to survive an elite defensive matchup. The gap between Memphis’s #39 ranked defense and UAB’s #137 ranked defense is the widest statistical margin on the floor.

While the Tigers struggle with raw shooting consistency, ranking 216th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency (107.0), they excel at generating points through sheer aggression. In their recent outing against Tulane, they attempted 38 free throws, converting 32. This style directly attacks UAB’s defensive weakness, as the Blazers rank 137th in defensive efficiency and often struggle with foul discipline when defending high-usage guards like Dug McDaniel. McDaniel’s playmaking and ability to navigate high-pressure environments give Memphis a distinct advantage in a close game, especially given their superior free-throw volume.

The situational context heavily favors the visiting Tigers despite the pick-em price. UAB has lost four consecutive games at home, suggesting that their typical home-court advantage is currently compromised or that the market is overvaluing the venue. Furthermore, Memphis holds a superior Adjusted Efficiency Margin (+6.89) compared to UAB, who sits in the mid-130s across major predictive metrics like T-Rank. When two teams are separated by nearly 30 spots in national rankings but the market offers even money, the value lies with the higher-rated defensive team. Memphis should dictate a slow, 69-possession tempo and grind out a victory. Take Memphis ML.