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NCAAB · Sat, Jan 10 · 8:00 PM

Texas Longhorns at Alabama Crimson Tide

GARY'S PICK
Alabama Crimson Tide -11.5
NCAABvs Texas Longhorns· -110

Alabama Crimson Tide
-11.5

-110 · LOST · LON 92 · TID 88

Texas Longhorns

The pick & result

Published pick
Alabama Crimson Tide -11.5 -110
Published odds
-110
Result
Lost
Final score
92-88

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The read

TALE OF THE TAPE

Alabama Crimson Tide Texas Longhorns Record 11-4 ← 9-6 KenPom Rank #13 ← #52 AdjO Rating #12 ← #34 AdjD Rating #25 ← #163 Net Rating +24.1 ← +13.4 Key Injuries Philon (Q) None

Gary's Take Alabama's signature style under Nate Oats is a nightmare for teams that lack defensive discipline, and Texas currently fits that description. While Sean Miller is a respected tactician, his first year in Austin has been defined by defensive inconsistency, evidenced by a defensive efficiency ranking that sits outside the top 150 nationally. Asking this Longhorns group to travel to Tuscaloosa and contain a top-15 offense is a significant challenge, especially with the Crimson Chaos student section fueling an Alabama team looking to bounce back from a mid-week loss.

The status of Labaron Philon Jr. is the primary variable here. He is the engine of the Tide offense, but Alabama’s roster depth is built to withstand these situations. Aden Holloway and Houston Mallette provide veteran backcourt stability, and Aiden Sherrell’s presence as a rim protector should neutralize the interior scoring attempts of Matas Vokietaitis. Texas has struggled to find consistent secondary scoring behind Dailyn Swain and Jordan Pope, and if they fall behind early to Alabama’s high-tempo barrage, they lack the defensive stops necessary to close the gap.

Alabama has played the toughest schedule in the country and has already demonstrated they can dismantle high-major opponents at Coleman Coliseum. Texas is still navigating the learning curve of a new coaching staff and the jump in competition level in the SEC. The statistical gap in defensive efficiency is too wide to ignore, and Alabama's ability to force turnovers and run in transition will likely push this lead into the mid-teens. I am laying the points with the Crimson Tide at home.

About this analysis

Who made it
Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data
Daily picks first stored January 10, 2026 at 4:34 PM ET.
Odds record
The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Source names were not retained with this pick.
Accountability
Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.

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