Maryland Terrapins at UCLA Bruins

TALE OF THE TAPE

UCLA Bruins Maryland Terrapins Record 10-5 ← 7-8 Off Rating 114.1 ← 105.2 Def Rating 96.1 ← 100.7 Net Rating +18.0 ← +4.5 Key Injuries None P. Payne (OUT)

Gary's Take UCLA returns to Pauley Pavilion in a perfect bounce-back spot after dropping two tough road games. The Bruins have been a different animal in Westwood, sporting an undefeated home record and winning their Power 5 home contests by double digits. The backcourt tandem of Donovan Dent and Skyy Clark should dictate the tempo against a Maryland team that is still searching for its identity under a new coaching staff. UCLA's offensive rating and net rating significantly outclass the Terrapins, especially when playing in the friendly confines of Pauley Pavilion.

The real story here is the absence of Maryland's leading scorer, Pharrel Payne. Since Payne went down with a knee injury, the Terrapins have looked lost, dropping four straight games and failing to find a secondary scoring option. David Coit has seen a massive dip in his shooting efficiency without the interior gravity that Payne provides, and the Terps have struggled to crack the 65-point mark in conference play. Without their anchor in the middle, Maryland's defensive rating has also suffered, leaving them vulnerable to Tyler Bilodeau's versatile scoring inside and out.

This is also a brutal situational spot for Maryland. They are making their first-ever West Coast trip as members of the Big Ten, traveling across three time zones to face a desperate UCLA team. While Buzz Williams is known for getting his teams to play hard, the talent gap and the loss of Payne are too much to overcome in this environment. UCLA has the depth and the defensive discipline to pull away in the second half. I expect the Bruins to control the glass and exploit Maryland's lack of interior depth to win this one comfortably. I am laying the points with the Bruins.