TALE OF THE TAPE Creighton Kansas State
Last 5 Record 2-3 ← 1-4
eFG% 52.5% 57.6% →
3P% 31.9% 40.2% →
Turnovers/gm 12.1 ← 13.7
Off Reb/gm 11.8 ← 11.3
Net Rating 0.0 0.0
Key Injuries None None Gary's Take
The public is going to load up on Creighton, but this matchup is a lot tighter than the surface records look (last five records 2-3 for Creighton and 1-4 for Kansas State). Recent efficiency is essentially even (net rating listed as 0.0 for both teams), yet Kansas State has been the more accurate shooting side (effective field goal percentage 57.6% vs 52.5% and three-point percentage 40.2% vs 31.9%). Creighton’s edge is in the possession game, taking better care of the ball and grabbing slightly more offensive boards (12.1 turnovers and 11.8 offensive rebounds per game vs 13.7 turnovers and 11.3 offensive rebounds for Kansas State). Here's how I see this playing out: Kansas State’s guards lean into that perimeter shooting advantage to trade threes for twos and keep every Creighton run in check (40.2% from deep compared to Creighton’s 31.9%). Creighton will still have stretches where the home crowd and cleaner possession profile matter (home wins of 96-76 vs Colonels and 75-60 vs Fighting Hawks in its last five), but over forty minutes those shooting gaps and equal overall efficiency make this feel like a one- or two-possession game either way (net rating 0.0 vs 0.0 and a combined 3-7 record between them in the last five). This screams value to me because we’re catching multiple possessions with the better shooting team in what profiles as a coin-flip efficiency matchup (Kansas State’s higher eFG% and three-point rate versus Creighton’s slight turnover and offensive rebounding edge). Lock this in: I’m taking Kansas State Wildcats +4.5 -105.
TALE OF THE TAPE
Creighton Kansas State
Last 5 Record 2-3 ← 1-4
eFG% 52.5% 57.6% →
3P% 31.9% 40.2% →
Turnovers/gm 12.1 ← 13.7
Off Reb/gm 11.8 ← 11.3
Net Rating 0.0 0.0
Key Injuries None None
Gary's Take
The public is going to load up on Creighton, but this matchup is a lot tighter than the surface records look (last five records 2-3 for Creighton and 1-4 for Kansas State). Recent efficiency is essentially even (net rating listed as 0.0 for both teams), yet Kansas State has been the more accurate shooting side (effective field goal percentage 57.6% vs 52.5% and three-point percentage 40.2% vs 31.9%). Creighton’s edge is in the possession game, taking better care of the ball and grabbing slightly more offensive boards (12.1 turnovers and 11.8 offensive rebounds per game vs 13.7 turnovers and 11.3 offensive rebounds for Kansas State).
Here's how I see this playing out: Kansas State’s guards lean into that perimeter shooting advantage to trade threes for twos and keep every Creighton run in check (40.2% from deep compared to Creighton’s 31.9%). Creighton will still have stretches where the home crowd and cleaner possession profile matter (home wins of 96-76 vs Colonels and 75-60 vs Fighting Hawks in its last five), but over forty minutes those shooting gaps and equal overall efficiency make this feel like a one- or two-possession game either way (net rating 0.0 vs 0.0 and a combined 3-7 record between them in the last five). This screams value to me because we’re catching multiple possessions with the better shooting team in what profiles as a coin-flip efficiency matchup (Kansas State’s higher eFG% and three-point rate versus Creighton’s slight turnover and offensive rebounding edge).
Lock this in: I’m taking Kansas State Wildcats +4.5 -105.
The pick & result
Published pick
Kansas State Wildcats +4.5 -105
Published odds
-105
Result
Won
Final score
83-76
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The read
TALE OF THE TAPE
Creighton Kansas State
Last 5 Record 2-3 ← 1-4
eFG% 52.5% 57.6% →
3P% 31.9% 40.2% →
Turnovers/gm 12.1 ← 13.7
Off Reb/gm 11.8 ← 11.3
Net Rating 0.0 0.0
Key Injuries None None
Gary's Take
The public is going to load up on Creighton, but this matchup is a lot tighter than the surface records look (last five records 2-3 for Creighton and 1-4 for Kansas State). Recent efficiency is essentially even (net rating listed as 0.0 for both teams), yet Kansas State has been the more accurate shooting side (effective field goal percentage 57.6% vs 52.5% and three-point percentage 40.2% vs 31.9%). Creighton’s edge is in the possession game, taking better care of the ball and grabbing slightly more offensive boards (12.1 turnovers and 11.8 offensive rebounds per game vs 13.7 turnovers and 11.3 offensive rebounds for Kansas State).
Here's how I see this playing out: Kansas State’s guards lean into that perimeter shooting advantage to trade threes for twos and keep every Creighton run in check (40.2% from deep compared to Creighton’s 31.9%). Creighton will still have stretches where the home crowd and cleaner possession profile matter (home wins of 96-76 vs Colonels and 75-60 vs Fighting Hawks in its last five), but over forty minutes those shooting gaps and equal overall efficiency make this feel like a one- or two-possession game either way (net rating 0.0 vs 0.0 and a combined 3-7 record between them in the last five). This screams value to me because we’re catching multiple possessions with the better shooting team in what profiles as a coin-flip efficiency matchup (Kansas State’s higher eFG% and three-point rate versus Creighton’s slight turnover and offensive rebounding edge).
Lock this in: I’m taking Kansas State Wildcats +4.5 -105.
About this analysis
Who made it
Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data
Daily picks first stored December 13, 2025 at 11:34 AM ET.
Odds record
The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Source names were not retained with this pick.
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