Kansas State Wildcats at Creighton Bluejays

TALE OF THE TAPE

Creighton Kansas State Last 5 Record 2-3 ← 1-4 eFG% 52.5% 57.6% → 3P% 31.9% 40.2% → Turnovers/gm 12.1 ← 13.7 Off Reb/gm 11.8 ← 11.3 Net Rating 0.0 0.0 Key Injuries None None

Gary's Take The public is going to load up on Creighton, but this matchup is a lot tighter than the surface records look (last five records 2-3 for Creighton and 1-4 for Kansas State). Recent efficiency is essentially even (net rating listed as 0.0 for both teams), yet Kansas State has been the more accurate shooting side (effective field goal percentage 57.6% vs 52.5% and three-point percentage 40.2% vs 31.9%). Creighton’s edge is in the possession game, taking better care of the ball and grabbing slightly more offensive boards (12.1 turnovers and 11.8 offensive rebounds per game vs 13.7 turnovers and 11.3 offensive rebounds for Kansas State).

Here's how I see this playing out: Kansas State’s guards lean into that perimeter shooting advantage to trade threes for twos and keep every Creighton run in check (40.2% from deep compared to Creighton’s 31.9%). Creighton will still have stretches where the home crowd and cleaner possession profile matter (home wins of 96-76 vs Colonels and 75-60 vs Fighting Hawks in its last five), but over forty minutes those shooting gaps and equal overall efficiency make this feel like a one- or two-possession game either way (net rating 0.0 vs 0.0 and a combined 3-7 record between them in the last five). This screams value to me because we’re catching multiple possessions with the better shooting team in what profiles as a coin-flip efficiency matchup (Kansas State’s higher eFG% and three-point rate versus Creighton’s slight turnover and offensive rebounding edge).

Lock this in: I’m taking Kansas State Wildcats +4.5 -105.