Missouri State Bears at Xavier Musketeers

TALE OF THE TAPE

Xavier Musketeers Missouri State Bears Record 4-1 ← 2-3 Off Rating — — Def Rating — — Net Rating 0.0 0.0 eFG% 50.7% → 52.0% 3P% 36.7% ← 29.7% Turnovers/G 9.1 ← 11.1 Off Rebounds/G 10.9 → 12.3 Key Injuries None None

Gary's Take I love this spot for Xavier at home because their profile lines up perfectly with how Missouri State has struggled on the road. Xavier has been rolling in their own gym, stacking four wins in their last five with comfortable margins, while Missouri State has been blown out in both recent road trips, including a pair of double-digit losses away from home.

The efficiency edge shows up in how Xavier spreads the floor and protects the ball. Xavier’s superior three-point shooting and lower turnover count mean more high-value possessions, and that’s exactly how big favorites stretch games out. Missouri State leans more on two-point scoring and the offensive glass, but that advantage on the boards isn’t enough if they’re coughing it up more often and can’t keep up from deep.

Here’s how I see this playing out: Xavier’s guards control the tempo, the home crowd fuels an early run, and Missouri State’s shaky road defense cracks once they’re forced to chase from behind. Over 40 minutes, those extra threes and cleaner possessions add up to a runaway margin. Lock this in: Xavier Musketeers -18.5 -105. The only way this misses is if Xavier sleepwalks and lets Missouri State hang around at the line and on the offensive glass for all 40 minutes.