Saint John's (MN) Johnnies at St. Thomas-Minnesota Tommies

TALE OF THE TAPE

St. Thomas-Minnesota Saint John's (MN) Record 3-2 ← - Off Rating - - Def Rating - - Net Rating 0.0 0.0 Key Injuries None None

Gary's Take I love this spot for St. Thomas-Minnesota at home because we actually know what this team is right now (3-2 over their last five games). They’ve shown they can put up real numbers on the scoreboard with outputs of 88, 74, 87, 76, and 80 in that stretch (81.0 points per game across those five). More importantly, they aren’t just trading baskets; they’re winning comfortably when they have the edge (home wins by 23 and 35 points, 88-65 and 87-52). On the other end of the floor they’ve held opponents to 65, 82, 52, 66, and 88 in that same run (70.6 points allowed per game across the last five).

The numbers don’t lie – this offense is efficient and under control (55.5% effective field goal percentage with 48.1% overall shooting and 30.4% from three). That kind of shot-making paired with clean ball-handling is how you cover numbers at home (only 10.1 turnovers per game as a team). Even though they’re not pounding the offensive glass, they still generate enough extra chances to separate when the shots are falling (5.9 offensive rebounds per game). Over a full 40 minutes, that profile usually translates to multiple scoring runs where the opponent simply can’t keep up with the efficiency and possession edge (81.0 scored versus 70.6 allowed per game in the last five).

Here’s how I see this playing out: St. Thomas settles in early, shooters find rhythm in their own gym, and the ball security prevents any big Saint John’s runs (10.1 turnovers per game limiting live-ball mistakes). Once they get a lead, that scoring balance and efficiency tends to stretch games out rather than invite late backdoor covers (two home wins in the last five decided by 23 and 35 points, 88-65 and 87-52). The only way this misses is if the Tommies suddenly shoot well below their usual efficiency and stop valuing the ball (dropping far under 55.5% effective field goal percentage while exceeding 10.1 turnovers). Given what we’ve seen recently, I’m willing to lay a reasonable number with the home side and trust the profile to hold up (3-2 record in the last five with an average +10.4 point differential per game). Lock this in: St. Thomas-Minnesota Tommies -4.5 -110.