NCAAB · Thu, Dec 11 · 8:00 PM

Iowa Hawkeyes at Iowa State Cyclones

GARY'S PICK

NCAAB@ Iowa State Cyclones· -110

TALE OF THE TAPE Iowa State Cyclones Iowa Hawkeyes Record 5-0 ← 4-1 eFG% 62.8% ← 59.4% Turnovers/G 10.1 → 10.0 Off Reb/G 12.0 ← 8.7 FT Rate 0.318 → 0.481 Key Injuries None None Gary's Take This is exactly the spot where value lives: a rivalry game with two efficient offenses (effective field goal percentage, turnovers) where one side is getting a pile of points. Iowa State has been rolling (record last five) and their shot-making plus edge on the offensive glass (offensive rebounds per game) lets them build real separation against weaker teams. But Iowa is built to hang around (free throw rate, free throw percentage). They live at the line and convert, and both teams take care of the ball (turnovers per game), which limits the kind of turnover-fueled runs that blow a game open. With similar tempo profiles (pace, possessions per game), there just aren’t a ton of extra possessions for Iowa State to stretch this into a runaway. I see Iowa State leading most of the way, but Iowa grinding out trips at the stripe and hitting enough shots to keep this within single digits. Lock it in: Iowa Hawkeyes +10.5 -110.

The pick & result

Published pick: Iowa Hawkeyes +10.5 -110
Published odds: -110
Result: Awaiting grade
Final score: Not available

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The read

TALE OF THE TAPE

Iowa State Cyclones Iowa Hawkeyes Record 5-0 ← 4-1 eFG% 62.8% ← 59.4% Turnovers/G 10.1 → 10.0 Off Reb/G 12.0 ← 8.7 FT Rate 0.318 → 0.481 Key Injuries None None

Gary's Take This is exactly the spot where value lives: a rivalry game with two efficient offenses (effective field goal percentage, turnovers) where one side is getting a pile of points. Iowa State has been rolling (record last five) and their shot-making plus edge on the offensive glass (offensive rebounds per game) lets them build real separation against weaker teams.

But Iowa is built to hang around (free throw rate, free throw percentage). They live at the line and convert, and both teams take care of the ball (turnovers per game), which limits the kind of turnover-fueled runs that blow a game open. With similar tempo profiles (pace, possessions per game), there just aren’t a ton of extra possessions for Iowa State to stretch this into a runaway.

I see Iowa State leading most of the way, but Iowa grinding out trips at the stripe and hitting enough shots to keep this within single digits. Lock it in: Iowa Hawkeyes +10.5 -110.

About this analysis

Who made it: Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data: Daily picks first stored December 11, 2025 at 10:50 AM ET.
Odds record: The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Source names were not retained with this pick.
Accountability: Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.

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