Iowa Hawkeyes at Iowa State Cyclones
Iowa Hawkeyes +10.5-110
CONF 67%
Not yet graded
The read
TALE OF THE TAPE
Iowa State Cyclones Iowa Hawkeyes Record 5-0 ← 4-1 eFG% 62.8% ← 59.4% Turnovers/G 10.1 → 10.0 Off Reb/G 12.0 ← 8.7 FT Rate 0.318 → 0.481 Key Injuries None None
Gary's Take This is exactly the spot where value lives: a rivalry game with two efficient offenses (effective field goal percentage, turnovers) where one side is getting a pile of points. Iowa State has been rolling (record last five) and their shot-making plus edge on the offensive glass (offensive rebounds per game) lets them build real separation against weaker teams.
But Iowa is built to hang around (free throw rate, free throw percentage). They live at the line and convert, and both teams take care of the ball (turnovers per game), which limits the kind of turnover-fueled runs that blow a game open. With similar tempo profiles (pace, possessions per game), there just aren’t a ton of extra possessions for Iowa State to stretch this into a runaway.
I see Iowa State leading most of the way, but Iowa grinding out trips at the stripe and hitting enough shots to keep this within single digits. Lock it in: Iowa Hawkeyes +10.5 -110.
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- Board stored December 11, 2025 at 10:50 AM ET.
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