Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils at Kansas State Wildcats

TALE OF THE TAPE

Kansas State Wildcats Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils Record 1-4 last 5 ← 0-5 last 5 Off Rating - ← - Def Rating - ← - Net Rating - ← - Key Injuries None None

Gary's Take This one's interesting - the spread is massive, but the underlying matchup says the dog can hang inside it. Kansas State clearly has the more efficient offense, with a sizable edge in shooting both overall and from deep, and they also create a few more extra chances on the offensive glass while turning it over less. Over 40 minutes, that points to the Wildcats controlling the game, especially at home.

But controlling the game and winning by almost forty are two very different things. Look at the recent results: Kansas State’s only win in the last five was a 21-point home blowout of the Bulldogs, and even in their losses they haven’t been putting teams away by margins anywhere near this number. Mississippi Valley State, meanwhile, has only been beaten by more than 36 once in its last five (a 36-point loss to the Aggies); the other four defeats were by 14, 16, 7, and 6 points. That tells you they generally manage to keep the scoreline somewhat respectable.

With similar tempo profiles, there aren’t likely to be so many possessions that pure talent alone guarantees a 37-plus point margin. I see Kansas State jumping out, using their shooting and size to build something in the mid-20s to low-30s, then easing off the gas as the bench checks in while Mississippi Valley State continues to play hard and sneaks in the backdoor. The Wildcats roll comfortably, but the Delta Devils stay within this inflated number. Lock it in: Mississippi Valley State +36.5.