Rays at Brewers
O/U 6.5 · RL Brewers -1.5 · American Family Field
The pick & result
- Published pick
- Rays ML +102
- Published odds
- +102
- Result
- Lost
- Final score
- 4-5
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The line
DRAFTKINGS · 23 moves| Market | Opened Fri 11:33 PM | Close Sat 7:54 PM | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | Rays +1.5 (-222) | Rays -1.5 (+179) | Price |
| TOTAL | 6.5 (-115) | 6.5 (-109) | Price |
| MONEYLINE | Brewers -122 | Brewers -116 | +6 |
Every move, in order ›
| When | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| OPENFri 11:33 PM | Rays +1.5 (-222) | 6.5 (-115) | Brewers -122 · Rays +102 |
| Sat 12:03 AM | Rays +1.5 (-222) | 6.5 (-115) | Brewers -122 · Rays +102 |
| Sat 12:33 AM | Rays +1.5 (-219) | 6.5 (-115) | Brewers -127 · Rays +106 |
| Sat 4:45 AM | Rays +1.5 (-219) | 6.5 (-112) | Brewers -127 · Rays +106 |
| Sat 9:31 AM | Rays -1.5 (+179) | 6.5 (-112) | Brewers -120 · Rays +100 |
| Sat 10:01 AM | Rays -1.5 (+183) | 6.5 (-110) | Brewers -120 · Rays +100 |
| Sat 10:32 AM | Rays -1.5 (+179) | 6.5 (-110) | Brewers -120 · Rays +100 |
| Sat 10:52 AM | Rays -1.5 (+181) | 6.5 (-110) | Brewers -120 · Rays +100 |
| Sat 11:32 AM | Rays -1.5 (+181) | 6.5 (-110) | Brewers -120 · Rays +100 |
| Sat 12:32 PM | Rays -1.5 (+181) | 6.5 (-110) | Brewers -120 · Rays +100 |
| Sat 1:32 PM | Rays -1.5 (+180) | 6.5 (-110) | Brewers -120 · Rays +100 |
| Sat 2:02 PM | Rays -1.5 (+179) | 6.5 (-110) | Brewers -120 · Rays +100 |
| Sat 2:32 PM | Rays -1.5 (+181) | 6.5 (-110) | Brewers -120 · Rays +100 |
| Sat 3:02 PM | Rays -1.5 (+180) | 6.5 (-110) | Brewers -120 · Rays +100 |
| Sat 3:32 PM | Rays -1.5 (+176) | 6.5 (-110) | Brewers -121 · Rays +100 |
| Sat 4:20 PM | Rays -1.5 (+183) | 6.5 (-108) | Brewers -120 · Rays +100 |
| Sat 5:00 PM | Rays -1.5 (+182) | 6.5 (-108) | Brewers -121 · Rays +100 |
| Sat 6:21 PM | Rays -1.5 (+181) | 6.5 (-108) | Brewers -120 · Rays +100 |
| Sat 6:31 PM | Rays -1.5 (+180) | 6.5 (-108) | Brewers -120 · Rays +100 |
| Sat 6:51 PM | Rays -1.5 (+181) | 6.5 (-108) | Brewers -120 · Rays +100 |
| Sat 7:02 PM | Rays -1.5 (+179) | 6.5 (-108) | Brewers -120 · Rays +100 |
| Sat 7:12 PM | Rays -1.5 (+178) | 6.5 (-108) | Brewers -116 · Rays +104 |
| Sat 7:43 PM | Rays -1.5 (+180) | 6.5 (-108) | Brewers -116 · Rays +104 |
| CLOSESat 7:54 PM | Rays -1.5 (+179) | 6.5 (-109) | Brewers -116 · Rays +104 |
The read
The roof is closed at American Family Field, the crowd is loud, and the Brewers lead 1-0 after a 3-2 win in Game 1. Tonight the Rays hand the ball to Drew Rasmussen against the team that drafted and later traded the right-hander, and a lot of Tampa Bay's World Series hopes depend on this start.
I like the Rays because the innings should break their way. Kevin Cash gave Rasmussen an extra day and said the plan is to get "the full pitch allotment" out of this start. Rasmussen has handled heavy work all October: 8.0 scoreless innings against the Yankees on 101 pitches, then 7.0 innings with 1 run at Cleveland on 95. Milwaukee's lefty-heavy lineup doesn't change much, since left-handed hitters managed only a .568 OPS against Rasmussen this season. If Rasmussen goes deep, the game goes to Bryan Baker (5 saves, 0 runs in 7.0 innings) and Cam Booser (0 runs in 4.2 innings), and both are on four full days of rest.
Milwaukee is in a different spot. Logan Henderson's numbers are excellent, but Henderson hasn't gone past 5.0 innings in any of the last five starts, and the two playoff outings ended at 64 and 72 pitches. That leaves Pat Murphy several innings to cover one night after Trevor Megill, Aaron Ashby and Abner Uribe all pitched. Murphy can use them again on back-to-back days, or turn to Dustin May (5 runs in 7.0 postseason innings) or Brandon Woodruff, who hasn't pitched in a game since July 4.
There's real risk here. The Rays are scoring 3.70 runs a game this postseason, and the bottom of the order has been quiet. William Contreras (13 for 33, 3 homers) can decide a game with one swing. Ashby has allowed 0 runs in 14.0 innings and threw only 20 pitches last night.
Still, Jonathan Aranda went 3 for 3 in Game 1, and the Rays only lost 3-2 even though Nick Martinez was done after 5 innings. Tonight Tampa Bay has the starter set up to pitch longer and the fresher late-inning arms behind Rasmussen. I'll take the Rays to even the series before it heads to their park.
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
COOLING OFF
Yandy Diaz: .450 OPS in Last 15 Days
.450Diaz has a .450 OPS over the last 15 days, well under his .805 for the season. That slump covers 40 at-bats, and a cold two weeks on so few chances says little about who he is. Hitters with a full-season track record usually climb back toward it. When his props get priced off the recent dip, the .805 season line is the better guide.
STREAK
MIL have won 4 straight
W4Milwaukee has won four straight and outscored opponents by 10 runs in that span, so these have mostly been comfortable wins. Four games is a short run, and there's no word on who they beat, which makes the run differential the best evidence available. Tonight's home game against Tampa Bay is the next test. Give the streak a little weight in pricing, and let the starters carry most of it.
TEAM RECORD
Brewers 7-1 in Logan Henderson's last 8 starts
7-1Milwaukee keeps winning when Henderson pitches: seven of his last eight starts and the last five straight. Eight starts is a small window, and a team record also carries the lineup and bullpen, so a 7-1 run usually cools. Tampa Bay brings the same 7-1 mark behind Rasmussen tonight, so the streaks cancel out. Price the game on the pitchers and lineups.
Rays 7-1 in Drew Rasmussen's last 8 starts
7-1The Rays have won seven of Rasmussen's last eight starts, so they almost always come out ahead when he pitches. Eight games is short, and run support and the bullpen drive a team record as much as the starter, so expect it to drift back toward normal. Milwaukee is also 7-1 behind Henderson and has won his last five. One streak breaks tonight, so neither record gives either side an edge.
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Daily picks first stored October 24, 2026 at 8:11 AM ET.
- Odds record
- The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: draftkings, fanduel, betmgm, fanatics, caesars, betrivers.
- Accountability
- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
Props on this game
2- GARY'S PICKDREW RASMUSSENPITCHER OUTS OVER 16.5
Drew Rasmussen over 16.5 outs at -136. That number asks for five and two thirds innings, and Rasmussen has gone at least six full innings in every start he has made this October.
Kevin Cash moved him behind Nick Martinez on purpose to give him an extra day, and Cash said the club has seen that extra rest help him. Look at what he did without it. He got 24 outs against the Yankees on 101 pitches, 18 against Cleveland at home on 91, then 21 in Cleveland on 95 in the start that put the Rays one win from the pennant. Go back through September and the outs read 21, 21, 20 and 15. He gets deep by keeping his pitch count in check, and Milwaukee's lineup tonight leans left, the side of the plate that did very little against him all season.
The worry is real. This Brewers lineup grinds. Jake Bauers and Brice Turang each walked close to 100 times this year, and Bauers has spent the postseason fouling off pitches until he gets one he can drive. Cash also has every reason to move quickly. Bryan Baker, Cam Booser and Tyler Wells all sat out Game 1, so if Rasmussen runs his count up in the fifth, Cash can go straight to the best part of his pen. Rasmussen also had a few short nights this summer when his command left him early, including a 2.1 inning start in July.
I'll take the ace on extra rest who has been the Rays' longest outing every time out this month.
- GARY'S PICKDREW RASMUSSENPITCHER WALKS UNDER 1.5
Drew Rasmussen under 1.5 walks at -136. I need him to issue one walk or none, and that is how he has pitched all year.
He walked 35 batters across 33 starts counting October, against 197 strikeouts. In his three postseason starts he walked two Yankees over eight innings, nobody in six innings against Cleveland at home, and one Guardian over seven innings in Game 5. A pitcher who stays that far ahead of hitters makes them swing, and he is coming in with an extra day of rest. Jim Wolf has the plate tonight, and his zone has played right around league average for walks this season, so nothing there pushes counts against him.
The case against this is the Milwaukee lineup. The Brewers take walks. Bauers and Turang each drew close to 100 this year, Turang took two free passes in Game 1, and the Rays' pen handed out four walks last night. Six left-handed hitters are in the order, and when Rasmussen has walked people lately it has mostly been lefties: three in the division clincher at Yankee Stadium and two more in his October start against New York. If he works deep, as I expect, the extra trips through the order also give Milwaukee more chances to work a full count.
Even against a patient lineup, a strike thrower this stingy with free passes is the side I want at this price.
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