Reds at Blue Jays
O/U 7.5 · RL Blue Jays -1.5 · Rogers Centre
The pick & result
- Published pick
- Blue Jays ML -162
- Published odds
- -162
- Result
- Lost
- Final score
- 5-1
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The line
BETRIVERS · 11 moves| Market | Opened Sep 26 5:00 AM | Close Sep 26 2:37 PM | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | Blue Jays -1.5 (+123) | Blue Jays -1.5 (+125) | Price |
| TOTAL | 8 (-113) | 8 (-121) | Price |
| MONEYLINE | Blue Jays -152 | Blue Jays -148 | +4 |
Every move, in order ›
| When | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| OPENSep 26 5:00 AM | Blue Jays -1.5 (+123) | 8 (-113) | Blue Jays -152 · Reds +128 |
| Sep 26 11:00 AM | Blue Jays -1.5 (+117) | 8 (-120) | Blue Jays -159 · Reds +133 |
| Sep 26 12:00 PM | Blue Jays -1.5 (+118) | 8 (-120) | Blue Jays -157 · Reds +130 |
| Sep 26 12:09 PM | Blue Jays -1.5 (+120) | 8 (-124) | Blue Jays -152 · Reds +128 |
| Sep 26 12:20 PM | Blue Jays -1.5 (+123) | 8 (-113) | Blue Jays -152 · Reds +128 |
| Sep 26 12:40 PM | Blue Jays -1.5 (+123) | 8 (-122) | Blue Jays -155 · Reds +128 |
| Sep 26 12:55 PM | Blue Jays -1.5 (+130) | 8.5 (-106) | Blue Jays -148 · Reds +123 |
| Sep 26 1:00 PM | Blue Jays -1.5 (+123) | 8 (-122) | Blue Jays -157 · Reds +130 |
| Sep 26 1:20 PM | Blue Jays -1.5 (+118) | 8 (-127) | Blue Jays -162 · Reds +135 |
| Sep 26 2:07 PM | Blue Jays -1.5 (+123) | 8.5 (-106) | Blue Jays -155 · Reds +130 |
| Sep 26 2:12 PM | Blue Jays -1.5 (+125) | 8.5 (-109) | Blue Jays -152 · Reds +128 |
| CLOSESep 26 2:37 PM | Blue Jays -1.5 (+125) | 8 (-121) | Blue Jays -148 · Reds +120 |
The read
Rogers Centre, roof closed, game two of a set Toronto already leads — and tonight the pitching matchup is where this game lives.
Trey Yesavage is the clearly better arm on paper: a 3.67 ERA and 1.13 WHIP over 95.2 innings, with contact suppression that stands out — a 6.4% barrel rate and 33.9% hard-hit allowed. Just as important, he's essentially platoon-neutral: .188 average allowed to left-handers, .178 to right-handers. That erases any structural lineup route for Cincinnati. Rhett Lowder sits at the other end — a 6.01 ERA and 1.55 WHIP, and he's meaningfully worse against lefties (.843 OPS and 12 home runs allowed to LHB versus .756 and 6 to RHB). Toronto's confirmed order runs five left-handed bats — Bateman, Lukes, Keys, Smith and Giménez — directly into that weak side, with the two lefties batting 1-2 to maximize early at-bats.
The bullpen widens the gap. Toronto's relief corps has been the stronger unit, and it enters in the healthier shape — Louis Varland, Tyler Rogers and Mason Fluharty all threw just 11-13 pitches yesterday. Cincinnati's damage arms did the heavier work: Luis Mey threw 27 pitches and surrendered 3 earned runs, and Pierce Johnson entered with three inherited runners who all scored, the exact sequence that flipped a 5-2 Reds lead in the series opener. Those two are now on zero days' rest, and the Reds have lost Santillan, Burns and Garcia to injury. In a game where both starters project short — Yesavage was capped at 2.0 innings in each of his last two MLB outings coming off the IL, and Lowder has averaged roughly four innings — the team with the deeper, fresher leverage relief is the one I want.
Here's the best argument against me: Yesavage won't go deep, Toronto's offense is thin (.248 average, 4.0 runs per game, with Okamoto's 33 homers more than triple the next-highest total), and Cincinnati has real power in De La Cruz and Stewart. A one-run game is very live. But at this price I'm paying for the starter gap and the bullpen edge, and both point the same direction — I'll take Toronto to win outright rather than lay the runs on a team that doesn't blow people out.
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
PLATOON EDGE
Brett Bateman (bats L) gets a RHP from the 1st spot
.889Brett Bateman carries a .889 OPS against right-handers over 95 at-bats, well above his .651 the other way over 56. He hits first tonight against RHP Rhett Lowder, the hand he handles best. The split is the whole case.
Nathan Lukes (bats L) hits 2nd against Rhett Lowder (RHP)
.749Nathan Lukes has a .749 OPS against right-handers over 330 at-bats, against .582 the other way over 75. He bats second tonight against RHP Rhett Lowder, the side of the platoon that fits. The vs-right sample is a large one.
COOLING OFF
Ernie Clement: .324 OPS in L15, draws RHP Rhett Lowder
.324Ernie Clement has a .324 OPS over 42 at-bats, 0.332 under his .656 season mark. He draws RHP Rhett Lowder, his stronger side at .669 across 395 at-bats. The cold 15 days weighs against a favorable split.
TEAM RECORD
Blue Jays 2-6 in Trey Yesavage's last 8 starts
2-6Toronto has mostly lost when Yesavage starts over his last 8, winning just twice. Eight games is a small window, and team record carries the offense and bullpen as much as the pitcher. Expect this to move. Hosting Cincinnati, judge him on how he has actually been pitching instead of the club's record on his days.
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Daily picks first stored September 26, 2026 at 8:07 AM ET.
- Odds record
- The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, fanatics, caesars, draftkings, betmgm, betrivers.
- Accountability
- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
Props on this game
2- GARY'S PICKJUAN BRITOH+R+RBI OVER 0.5
The board prices Juan Brito's hits, runs and RBIs over 0.5 at -165, with the under at +125. Brito is in the Cincinnati lineup batting eighth, which is roughly three and a half plate appearances, and over his last fifteen games he has averaged 2.4 hits, runs and RBIs per game against a season mark of 1.8. He has cleared this number in twelve of his last fifteen games, and he has done it three different ways. Last night he singled twice off Jose Soriano, in Atlanta he doubled and homered off Chris Sale, and earlier this month he put up three hits, a homer and three RBIs in a game at Milwaukee. The bar is a single event: one base hit, one run scored or one run driven in, across three or four trips. He arrives hot in the truest sense, with a .341 average and a .953 OPS in September, and the Reds have him in a spot where a knock in front of the top of the order can turn into a run.
The strongest argument against me is the platoon. Brito has done most of his damage against left-handed pitching, a 1.284 OPS with both of his recent homers in that split, while his work against right-handers sits at a .656 OPS with a single home run. Trey Yesavage is a right-hander, and Toronto's bullpen behind him has been the better unit in this series, so the late at-bats in a close game will not be easy. The counter is volume and the low bar. He has seen right-handed starters in five of his last six games, and he still cleared this number in four of them, and one well-placed ground ball or one soft single is enough. I am not asking him to slug. I am asking him to do one thing in a game where he is likely to get four looks.
- GARY'S PICKTREY YESAVAGEPITCHER EARNED RUNS OVER 0.5
The board lists Trey Yesavage's earned runs over 0.5 at -140, with the under at +125. Yesavage has made nineteen starts and allowed at least one earned run in all but four of them, an average of 2.1 earned runs per start, and the profile that produces that is a strikeout arm who also puts men on: 46 walks in 95.2 innings, about two and a half per start, on top of 11 home runs allowed. Cincinnati is the wrong opponent for a pitcher who hands out free passes. This lineup has 158 home runs against right-handed pitching, Elly De La Cruz has 30 homers and an .888 OPS, Sal Stewart has 32, Eugenio Suarez has 26 with six of them in September, and JJ Bleday has 23. The Reds average 1.32 home runs per game. One swing against a pitcher who is still working back to full length settles this prop, and this is the cheapest price on the board.
The strongest argument against me is workload and contact quality. Yesavage has been capped near two innings in each of his last two outings, which limits how many Cincinnati hitters he faces, and his last three starts produced only two earned runs across 10.2 innings. He also suppresses hard contact at an elite level, a 6.4 percent barrel rate and 33.9 percent hard hit allowed, with left-handers at a .188 average and right-handers at .178, so the at-bats are tougher than the Reds' power numbers suggest. A short, clean two-inning stint with no damage is a live outcome, and it is the one that beats me.
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