Angels at Mariners

The read

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

All research from this day

• GARY'S PICK

  KADE ANDERSONK'S UNDER 5.5

  MLBSeattle Mariners· +114

  ✓ CASHED · ACTUAL 4

  GARY'S TAKE

  Six big league starts, 28 strikeouts in 32 1/3 innings, and five of the six finished at five or fewer. Anderson has not been a swing-and-miss arm in his first month. The fastball sits at 93 and he has leaned on the slider, changeup and curveball to finish hitters, but the swings he generates are contact swings as much as empty ones, and Seattle has kept him on a short leash. He has reached the sixth inning twice in six tries, and his pitch counts have mostly landed in the low 80s, which caps how deep a strikeout total can run before the manager comes for the ball. The Angels are the honest counter, and this may be the heaviest strikeout opponent he has seen. Neto, Siri and Moore carry big strikeout totals in this order, and a free-swinging lineup can inflate a pitch count in a way no other opponent has for him. He struck out five in 4 1/3 against these Angels on Sep 14, and an efficient night that carries him into the seventh is exactly how this ticket dies. At plus money I am still taking the under on a rookie who has gone past five punchouts once in six starts, with the hook arriving before the sixth more often than not.

  ×

  Kade Anderson
  K'S under 5.5

  +114 · CASHED · ACTUAL 4

  Seattle Mariners

  Read Gary’s Take

  Six big league starts, 28 strikeouts in 32 1/3 innings, and five of the six finished at five or fewer. Anderson has not been a swing-and-miss arm in his first month. The fastball sits at 93 and he has leaned on the slider, changeup and curveball to finish hitters, but the swings he generates are contact swings as much as empty ones, and Seattle has kept him on a short leash. He has reached the sixth inning twice in six tries, and his pitch counts have mostly landed in the low 80s, which caps how deep a strikeout total can run before the manager comes for the ball.

  The Angels are the honest counter, and this may be the heaviest strikeout opponent he has seen. Neto, Siri and Moore carry big strikeout totals in this order, and a free-swinging lineup can inflate a pitch count in a way no other opponent has for him. He struck out five in 4 1/3 against these Angels on Sep 14, and an efficient night that carries him into the seventh is exactly how this ticket dies. At plus money I am still taking the under on a rookie who has gone past five punchouts once in six starts, with the hook arriving before the sixth more often than not.

• GARY'S PICK

  LEO RIVASWALKS UNDER 0.5

  MLBSeattle Mariners· -175

  ✓ CASHED · ACTUAL 0

  GARY'S TAKE

  Rivas is the ninth-place bat in a lineup that has spent this series chasing, and the walk prop is priced like a formality because the man on the mound has stopped giving away bases. Ryan Johnson has walked one batter across his last three starts, 16 1/3 innings with a single free pass, and he went six innings against this same Seattle club on Sep 15 without issuing one. His control has been the story of his second half, the cutter and the splitter working under hitters' hands instead of running out of the zone. Rivas has not drawn a walk in either of his last two games, and his look at Johnson earlier this month ended in a strikeout. Against right-handed pitching he carries a .566 OPS with no home runs in 80 at-bats, and a ninth-place hitter with roughly three trips to the plate owns the smallest window on this card for a free base. The case against me is not small. Johnson's season ledger shows 39 walks in 95 innings, so the wild version of him exists, and Rivas has a patient bat for a .150 hitter with 16 walks in 120 at-bats. One pitch off the plate flips this ticket, and a ninth-place hitter gets a steady diet of breaking balls in the dirt from a catcher's game plan that has no reason to challenge him. I am still laying the price on the recent form and the matchup, knowing a single plate appearance can beat me.

  ×

  Leo Rivas
  Walks under 0.5

  -175 · CASHED · ACTUAL 0

  Seattle Mariners

  Read Gary’s Take

  Rivas is the ninth-place bat in a lineup that has spent this series chasing, and the walk prop is priced like a formality because the man on the mound has stopped giving away bases. Ryan Johnson has walked one batter across his last three starts, 16 1/3 innings with a single free pass, and he went six innings against this same Seattle club on Sep 15 without issuing one. His control has been the story of his second half, the cutter and the splitter working under hitters' hands instead of running out of the zone. Rivas has not drawn a walk in either of his last two games, and his look at Johnson earlier this month ended in a strikeout. Against right-handed pitching he carries a .566 OPS with no home runs in 80 at-bats, and a ninth-place hitter with roughly three trips to the plate owns the smallest window on this card for a free base.

  The case against me is not small. Johnson's season ledger shows 39 walks in 95 innings, so the wild version of him exists, and Rivas has a patient bat for a .150 hitter with 16 walks in 120 at-bats. One pitch off the plate flips this ticket, and a ninth-place hitter gets a steady diet of breaking balls in the dirt from a catcher's game plan that has no reason to challenge him. I am still laying the price on the recent form and the matchup, knowing a single plate appearance can beat me.

Every prop from this day is on the archive page.