Twins at Giants

Monday night by the Bay, two clubs playing out the string, and the Twins send Zebby Matthews to Oracle Park against Blade Tidwell with the wind pushing out to center. Nobody here is chasing October, so tonight comes down to who actually has hitters in the box, and that is where this one tilts. The Giants put Jung Hoo Lee on the injured list this afternoon and are running a same-day call-up third and a same-day activation fourth, with Brett Harris and his .148 average at first base and a .598 OPS catcher behind him. The Twins counter with Jeffers, Keaschall, Clemens, Jenkins, Brooks Lee, and Roden, and the last three are hot: Roden drove in four on Sunday, Jenkins homered on back-to-back nights last week, and the club has scored five runs a game over its last five. The second leg is Tidwell. His split is the most extreme number in this matchup: lefties have posted a .861 OPS against him while righties sit at .464, and Minnesota walks five left-handed looks to the plate. He is an extreme fly-ball pitcher at a 0.55 ground-out ratio, pitching at home where his ERA runs near six, with a 15 mph breeze blowing toward center. Behind Matthews, Hoffman and Minter both had Sunday off, Hoffman has a 1.80 ERA over the past month, and Minter sits at 2.51 for the year, so the innings that usually decide a close game belong to Minnesota. The case against me is real. Matthews' road ERA is close to seven, the Giants' pen has run a 3.04 ERA over the tracked window with Trent Harris unscored upon for a month, and Yoendrys Gómez has allowed five runs in his last two-plus innings with two blown saves. If this reaches the ninth within a run, I am sweating. But Matthews just threw six shutout innings with eight strikeouts against the Yankees, his night ERA is 3.34, and the Giants' relief ERA is riding a K-BB rate under three percent, which is contact luck, not stuff. I would rather bet the lineup that can score against the starter who cannot handle lefties than a shell lineup hoping for a road meltdown. Twins at -130.