Twins at Angels

The read

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

All research from this day

• GARY'S PICK

  JOE RYANPITCHER EARNED RUNS OVER 1.5

  MLBMinnesota Twins· -145

  ✓ CASHED · ACTUAL 2

  GARY'S TAKE

  I’m laying -145 on Joe Ryan to allow over 1.5 earned runs. He has allowed at least two in six consecutive starts, including four earned runs in each of his last two, and his return from a 34-day gap has produced only eight innings across two outings. The matchup also gives Los Angeles three left-handed bats in Meckler, Ballesteros and Lowe; lefties have a .744 OPS with 14 homers against Ryan, compared with a .657 OPS allowed to righties. His 5.55 first-inning ERA creates an additional path to early damage before workload becomes relevant. The strongest counter is the Angels’ offense: it owns a .673 OPS against right-handed pitching, was shut out last night and has scored only three runs per game over its last five. Ryan also held this club to two earned runs over six innings in July. I still make two earned runs more likely than the -145 price requires, but the weak opposing lineup keeps this below top conviction.

  ×

  Joe Ryan
  Pitcher Earned Runs over 1.5

  -145 · CASHED · ACTUAL 2

  Minnesota Twins

  Read Gary’s Take

  I’m laying -145 on Joe Ryan to allow over 1.5 earned runs. He has allowed at least two in six consecutive starts, including four earned runs in each of his last two, and his return from a 34-day gap has produced only eight innings across two outings. The matchup also gives Los Angeles three left-handed bats in Meckler, Ballesteros and Lowe; lefties have a .744 OPS with 14 homers against Ryan, compared with a .657 OPS allowed to righties. His 5.55 first-inning ERA creates an additional path to early damage before workload becomes relevant.

  The strongest counter is the Angels’ offense: it owns a .673 OPS against right-handed pitching, was shut out last night and has scored only three runs per game over its last five. Ryan also held this club to two earned runs over six innings in July. I still make two earned runs more likely than the -145 price requires, but the weak opposing lineup keeps this below top conviction.

• THE LONG SHOT

  MOISES BALLESTEROSHR OVER 0.5

  MLBLos Angeles Angels· +680

  LOST · ACTUAL 0

  GARY'S TAKE

  I’ll take Moises Ballesteros over 0.5 home runs at +680. The price is the reason to choose him over the shorter home-run options. Ballesteros has three homers in 42 September at-bats and three across his last 15 games, while all nine of his season homers have come against right-handed pitching. Ryan has allowed 14 homers in 310 at-bats against left-handed hitters, carries a 10.2% barrel rate allowed and has surrendered three home runs in his two starts since returning. Ballesteros bats fifth, so he should receive at least one plate appearance with runners creating pressure on Ryan. The contrary case is substantial: Ballesteros has only nine homers in 290 season at-bats, averages 3.3 plate appearances per game and owns a modest .647 OPS. Ryan’s sweeper and curve have also limited damage well, so this is not a claim that Ballesteros has a proven pitch-specific advantage. It is a small long-shot position based on his recent power, the left-handed matchup and a price that implies only about a 13% chance before accounting for the sportsbook margin.

  ×

  Moises Ballesteros
  HR over 0.5

  +680 · LOST · ACTUAL 0

  Los Angeles Angels

  Read Gary’s Take

  I’ll take Moises Ballesteros over 0.5 home runs at +680. The price is the reason to choose him over the shorter home-run options. Ballesteros has three homers in 42 September at-bats and three across his last 15 games, while all nine of his season homers have come against right-handed pitching. Ryan has allowed 14 homers in 310 at-bats against left-handed hitters, carries a 10.2% barrel rate allowed and has surrendered three home runs in his two starts since returning. Ballesteros bats fifth, so he should receive at least one plate appearance with runners creating pressure on Ryan.

  The contrary case is substantial: Ballesteros has only nine homers in 290 season at-bats, averages 3.3 plate appearances per game and owns a modest .647 OPS. Ryan’s sweeper and curve have also limited damage well, so this is not a claim that Ballesteros has a proven pitch-specific advantage. It is a small long-shot position based on his recent power, the left-handed matchup and a price that implies only about a 13% chance before accounting for the sportsbook margin.

Every prop from this day is on the archive page.