Twins at Angels

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The research

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All research from this day

• GARY'S PICK

  CONNOR PRIELIPPPITCHER EARNED RUNS OVER 1.5

  MLBMinnesota Twins· -164

  LOST · ACTUAL 0

  GARY'S TAKE

  The number is 1.5 earned runs at -164, and Prielipp has gone over it in seven of his last eight starts, including a three-start stretch that's added up to 12 earned runs in 16.2 innings, a 6.48 mark. What separates his outings all year is venue: a 4.85 ERA at home against 6.40 on the road, and tonight he's making his first career appearance in Anaheim against a lineup with zero history against him. Minnesota's bullpen emptied itself in Thursday's extra-inning loss — five relievers used, several working their third outing in four days — and that kind of exhaustion pushes a manager to stretch his starter through traffic instead of pulling him at the first sign of trouble. This is a low bar. Even his better starts this stretch have gone for three earned runs; the only time he's stayed under it in his last eight tries was a one-run outing against a similarly light-hitting Oakland lineup back in July. Where I could be wrong: the Angels are a genuinely weak offense, 4.0 runs a game and near the bottom of the league in scoring, and tonight's lineup is stacked right-handed — eight of nine hitters — which happens to be the side Prielipp has actually handled better this season, allowing a .709 OPS to righties against .820 to the small sample of lefties he's faced. If that trend holds over the road split, this could be a clean night for him. I'm still backing the venue number and the taxed bullpen forcing the issue, but that platoon look doesn't help my case.

  ×

  Connor Prielipp
  Pitcher Earned Runs over 1.5

  -164 · LOST · ACTUAL 0

  Minnesota Twins

  Read Gary’s Take

  The number is 1.5 earned runs at -164, and Prielipp has gone over it in seven of his last eight starts, including a three-start stretch that's added up to 12 earned runs in 16.2 innings, a 6.48 mark. What separates his outings all year is venue: a 4.85 ERA at home against 6.40 on the road, and tonight he's making his first career appearance in Anaheim against a lineup with zero history against him. Minnesota's bullpen emptied itself in Thursday's extra-inning loss — five relievers used, several working their third outing in four days — and that kind of exhaustion pushes a manager to stretch his starter through traffic instead of pulling him at the first sign of trouble. This is a low bar. Even his better starts this stretch have gone for three earned runs; the only time he's stayed under it in his last eight tries was a one-run outing against a similarly light-hitting Oakland lineup back in July.

  Where I could be wrong: the Angels are a genuinely weak offense, 4.0 runs a game and near the bottom of the league in scoring, and tonight's lineup is stacked right-handed — eight of nine hitters — which happens to be the side Prielipp has actually handled better this season, allowing a .709 OPS to righties against .820 to the small sample of lefties he's faced. If that trend holds over the road split, this could be a clean night for him. I'm still backing the venue number and the taxed bullpen forcing the issue, but that platoon look doesn't help my case.

• GARY'S PICK

  GRAYSON RODRIGUEZPITCHER HITS ALLOWED OVER 4.5

  MLBLos Angeles Angels· -145

  ✓ CASHED · ACTUAL 8

  GARY'S TAKE

  Rodriguez is averaging 5.4 hits allowed per start on the season against a line of 4.5 tonight at -145, and he's making his final home start of the year at the park that's been the site of most of his trouble: a 7.54 ERA in ten starts at Angel Stadium against 4.54 everywhere else. The matchup lines up with his one real weakness. He's been hit at a .318 average and a .939 OPS by left-handed batters this year, nine home runs allowed in 201 at-bats, and Minnesota is sending up a lineup built directly into that: Kody Clemens, Emmanuel Rodriguez and rookie Walker Jenkins bat left-handed outright, and both Brooks Lee and Josh Bell switch-hit from the left side against a right-hander. That's five of nine hitters tonight in his worst split, and Jenkins in particular is swinging it well right now after a three-hit, two-RBI night in the series opener. He's cleared this hits number in five of his last eight starts, and that platoon exposure says the true rate should run higher than 4.5, not lower. The honest pushback: his last three turns have all landed under this line, and Minnesota's offense has gone quiet the last two weeks, averaging just 3.0 runs a game over both its last five and last ten games. A lineup that isn't squaring the ball up right now doesn't automatically pad a hits total just because the handedness says it should. I'm still on the over because the platoon split is too specific to the way he's been beaten all year, but that cold stretch from the Twins' bats is the real risk here.

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  Grayson Rodriguez
  Pitcher Hits Allowed over 4.5

  -145 · CASHED · ACTUAL 8

  Los Angeles Angels

  Read Gary’s Take

  Rodriguez is averaging 5.4 hits allowed per start on the season against a line of 4.5 tonight at -145, and he's making his final home start of the year at the park that's been the site of most of his trouble: a 7.54 ERA in ten starts at Angel Stadium against 4.54 everywhere else. The matchup lines up with his one real weakness. He's been hit at a .318 average and a .939 OPS by left-handed batters this year, nine home runs allowed in 201 at-bats, and Minnesota is sending up a lineup built directly into that: Kody Clemens, Emmanuel Rodriguez and rookie Walker Jenkins bat left-handed outright, and both Brooks Lee and Josh Bell switch-hit from the left side against a right-hander. That's five of nine hitters tonight in his worst split, and Jenkins in particular is swinging it well right now after a three-hit, two-RBI night in the series opener. He's cleared this hits number in five of his last eight starts, and that platoon exposure says the true rate should run higher than 4.5, not lower.

  The honest pushback: his last three turns have all landed under this line, and Minnesota's offense has gone quiet the last two weeks, averaging just 3.0 runs a game over both its last five and last ten games. A lineup that isn't squaring the ball up right now doesn't automatically pad a hits total just because the handedness says it should. I'm still on the over because the platoon split is too specific to the way he's been beaten all year, but that cold stretch from the Twins' bats is the real risk here.

• THE LONG SHOT

  ZACH NETOHR OVER 0.5

  MLBLos Angeles Angels· +600

  LOST · ACTUAL 0

  GARY'S TAKE

  Neto has been a different hitter against left-handed pitching all season — .288 with an .881 OPS and eight home runs in 163 at-bats, against a more pedestrian .223 and .718 versus right-handers — and he's riding his best two-week stretch of the year into a look at a lefty tonight: .294 with a .919 OPS and three home runs over his last fifteen days. He leads off, which means more plate appearances than anyone else in the lineup, and he's never faced Prielipp before, so there's no track record of being solved by him specifically. The complication is real: Prielipp's own numbers this season actually show right-handed hitters have had a tougher time against him than the small sample of lefties he's faced, which cuts against a simple platoon read, and Neto went 0-for-4 with three strikeouts against Minnesota pitching in last night's opener. Those are legitimate points against this exact matchup even if Neto's broader form and his skill against left-handed pitching in general still point the other way. At plus-600 I only need this to land a little more than once every eight tries, and between the recent form and the leadoff volume, I like that price enough to take it.

  ×

  Zach Neto
  HR over 0.5

  +600 · LOST · ACTUAL 0

  Los Angeles Angels

  Read Gary’s Take

  Neto has been a different hitter against left-handed pitching all season — .288 with an .881 OPS and eight home runs in 163 at-bats, against a more pedestrian .223 and .718 versus right-handers — and he's riding his best two-week stretch of the year into a look at a lefty tonight: .294 with a .919 OPS and three home runs over his last fifteen days. He leads off, which means more plate appearances than anyone else in the lineup, and he's never faced Prielipp before, so there's no track record of being solved by him specifically.

  The complication is real: Prielipp's own numbers this season actually show right-handed hitters have had a tougher time against him than the small sample of lefties he's faced, which cuts against a simple platoon read, and Neto went 0-for-4 with three strikeouts against Minnesota pitching in last night's opener. Those are legitimate points against this exact matchup even if Neto's broader form and his skill against left-handed pitching in general still point the other way. At plus-600 I only need this to land a little more than once every eight tries, and between the recent form and the leadoff volume, I like that price enough to take it.

Every prop from this day is on the archive page.