Royals at Pirates

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All research from this day

• GARY'S PICK

  RONNY SIMONHITS OVER 0.5

  MLBPittsburgh Pirates· -175

  ✓ CASHED · ACTUAL 1

  GARY'S TAKE

  Ronny Simon over 0.5 hits at -175 is a bet on a bat that's been impossible to keep off the bases since he arrived. He's a small sample right now — 40 at-bats across his callup — but the shape of it is loud: .444 in September, 4 hits in his last 8 at-bats, and hits in nine of his last thirteen games. He's a switch hitter, so he'll swing left-handed against Randy Dobnak tonight, and his numbers happen to be even better from that side against right-handed pitching (.333, .787 OPS in 27 at-bats) than they are against lefties. Dobnak, for his part, is the one trending the wrong way here — a 2.73 ERA on the scoreboard masks a pitcher who's posted a 5.09 ERA this month and has allowed a .267 average to left-handed bats, with five of his six homers surrendered from that side. Simon gets roughly three and a half plate appearances tonight in a lineup spot that isn't going anywhere. The honest pushback: forty career at-bats is nothing. This is BABIP-shaped production from a player with zero home runs and only two doubles in that sample — an empty average can look like a hot bat and still be one bad week from looking very different. PNC Park's deep center field and river wind won't help him turn a well-struck ball into extra bases, though for a bet that only needs one single, that matters less here than it would on a total-bases number. I'm paying the -175 for a player getting extended run in a favorable slot against a starter who's been getting hit.

  ×

  Ronny Simon
  Hits over 0.5

  -175 · CASHED · ACTUAL 1

  Pittsburgh Pirates

  Read Gary’s Take

  Ronny Simon over 0.5 hits at -175 is a bet on a bat that's been impossible to keep off the bases since he arrived. He's a small sample right now — 40 at-bats across his callup — but the shape of it is loud: .444 in September, 4 hits in his last 8 at-bats, and hits in nine of his last thirteen games. He's a switch hitter, so he'll swing left-handed against Randy Dobnak tonight, and his numbers happen to be even better from that side against right-handed pitching (.333, .787 OPS in 27 at-bats) than they are against lefties. Dobnak, for his part, is the one trending the wrong way here — a 2.73 ERA on the scoreboard masks a pitcher who's posted a 5.09 ERA this month and has allowed a .267 average to left-handed bats, with five of his six homers surrendered from that side. Simon gets roughly three and a half plate appearances tonight in a lineup spot that isn't going anywhere.

  The honest pushback: forty career at-bats is nothing. This is BABIP-shaped production from a player with zero home runs and only two doubles in that sample — an empty average can look like a hot bat and still be one bad week from looking very different. PNC Park's deep center field and river wind won't help him turn a well-struck ball into extra bases, though for a bet that only needs one single, that matters less here than it would on a total-bases number. I'm paying the -175 for a player getting extended run in a favorable slot against a starter who's been getting hit.

• GARY'S PICK

  JOHN RAVEH+R+RBI OVER 0.5

  MLBKansas City Royals· -155

  ✓ CASHED · ACTUAL 1

  GARY'S TAKE

  John Rave clearing 0.5 combined hits, runs, and RBIs at -155 is built on volume and matchup fit, not on Rave beating Paul Skenes outright. Rave is hitting .226 with a .917 OPS and three home runs in September, and as a left-handed hitter he's actually done more damage against right-handed pitching this year — a .794 OPS with five of his six homers — than he has against lefties, which lines up with facing Skenes tonight. This number has cashed in ten of his last fifteen games because it only needs one small thing to go right: a knock, a run crossed, or a run driven in. He hits seventh behind Salvador Perez, who's rolling at .306 over his last fifteen days, so there are bodies on base in front of him more nights than not, and Rave has the speed — seven steals this season — to turn a walk or a bloop single into a run scored even in a game where he doesn't square one up. The case against: Paul Skenes is a real problem for this lineup tonight, a strikeout arm averaging better than a strikeout an inning for the season, and Rave has gone down on strikes in over a quarter of his at-bats this year. Skenes has also been sharper than his season line the last three times out — a 3.71 ERA with ten strikeouts against five walks — and PNC Park's dimensions aren't going to hand anyone a cheap extra-base hit. This isn't a bet that Rave solves Skenes; it's a bet that across a little over three plate appearances, one single, one run, or one RBI finds its way onto his line.

  ×

  John Rave
  H+R+RBI over 0.5

  -155 · CASHED · ACTUAL 1

  Kansas City Royals

  Read Gary’s Take

  John Rave clearing 0.5 combined hits, runs, and RBIs at -155 is built on volume and matchup fit, not on Rave beating Paul Skenes outright. Rave is hitting .226 with a .917 OPS and three home runs in September, and as a left-handed hitter he's actually done more damage against right-handed pitching this year — a .794 OPS with five of his six homers — than he has against lefties, which lines up with facing Skenes tonight. This number has cashed in ten of his last fifteen games because it only needs one small thing to go right: a knock, a run crossed, or a run driven in. He hits seventh behind Salvador Perez, who's rolling at .306 over his last fifteen days, so there are bodies on base in front of him more nights than not, and Rave has the speed — seven steals this season — to turn a walk or a bloop single into a run scored even in a game where he doesn't square one up.

  The case against: Paul Skenes is a real problem for this lineup tonight, a strikeout arm averaging better than a strikeout an inning for the season, and Rave has gone down on strikes in over a quarter of his at-bats this year. Skenes has also been sharper than his season line the last three times out — a 3.71 ERA with ten strikeouts against five walks — and PNC Park's dimensions aren't going to hand anyone a cheap extra-base hit. This isn't a bet that Rave solves Skenes; it's a bet that across a little over three plate appearances, one single, one run, or one RBI finds its way onto his line.

• THE LONG SHOT

  CARTER JENSENHR OVER 0.5

  MLBKansas City Royals· +554

  LOST · ACTUAL 0

  GARY'S TAKE

  Carter Jensen over 0.5 home runs at +554 is the one longshot on this board with real skill behind it, not just a hot week. He's a left-handed bat with 24 home runs on the season — elite output for a catcher — and twenty of them have come against right-handed pitching, exactly what he sees tonight in Paul Skenes. He's in the middle of his best power stretch of the year: five home runs in his last fifteen days, a .333 average and a 1.272 OPS in September, and he's doing it from the leadoff spot, which keeps him at the top of the order and means he won't be short on chances tonight. A price north of +550 implies roughly a 15 percent chance of clearing this; he's gone deep in four of his last fifteen games, closer to 27 percent, and that gap is wide enough to take even before crediting the fact that this power is an established part of his game and not a one-week mirage. Working against it: PNC Park is one of the more pitcher-friendly parks in the league, with a deep 399-foot center field and a wind off the river that knocks down fly balls, and Skenes is a legitimate front-of-the-rotation arm with a 96.8 mph fastball who has kept the ball in the yard at a roughly average rate all year. Home runs are the streakiest outcome in baseball, and four-for-fifteen games is still a short window to lean on this hard. This is the one card where I'm betting the underlying power more than the last two weeks, and the price is what makes that trade worth making.

  ×

  Carter Jensen
  HR over 0.5

  +554 · LOST · ACTUAL 0

  Kansas City Royals

  Read Gary’s Take

  Carter Jensen over 0.5 home runs at +554 is the one longshot on this board with real skill behind it, not just a hot week. He's a left-handed bat with 24 home runs on the season — elite output for a catcher — and twenty of them have come against right-handed pitching, exactly what he sees tonight in Paul Skenes. He's in the middle of his best power stretch of the year: five home runs in his last fifteen days, a .333 average and a 1.272 OPS in September, and he's doing it from the leadoff spot, which keeps him at the top of the order and means he won't be short on chances tonight. A price north of +550 implies roughly a 15 percent chance of clearing this; he's gone deep in four of his last fifteen games, closer to 27 percent, and that gap is wide enough to take even before crediting the fact that this power is an established part of his game and not a one-week mirage.

  Working against it: PNC Park is one of the more pitcher-friendly parks in the league, with a deep 399-foot center field and a wind off the river that knocks down fly balls, and Skenes is a legitimate front-of-the-rotation arm with a 96.8 mph fastball who has kept the ball in the yard at a roughly average rate all year. Home runs are the streakiest outcome in baseball, and four-for-fifteen games is still a short window to lean on this hard. This is the one card where I'm betting the underlying power more than the last two weeks, and the price is what makes that trade worth making.

Every prop from this day is on the archive page.