Blue Jays at Rangers

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The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

All research from this day

• GARY'S PICK

  KUMAR ROCKERPITCHER WALKS OVER 1.5

  MLBTexas Rangers· -143

  ✓ CASHED · ACTUAL 2

  GARY'S TAKE

  Kumar Rocker's over on 1.5 walks at -143. He's walked multiple hitters in seven of his last eight starts, and the season rate — 2.2 a start across 25 turns — sits almost exactly on this line, with his more recent stretch running hotter than that at 2.75 over the last eight. The stuff explains why: his slider is a real weapon at a .190 xwOBA and a 52 percent chase rate, but the sinker, cutter, and four-seamer all get hit hard when they catch the plate, ranging from .358 to .430 xwOBA. When a starter can't trust his fastball shapes for called strikes, he ends up pitching around the zone instead of in it, and free passes follow. He's also been the tougher watch at home all season — a 4.76 ERA in Arlington against 4.57 on the road, and 6.14 over his last three home starts — which tracks with a guy who doesn't have it as often on his own mound. The real risk here is usage, not stuff: Texas has been managing Rocker's innings down the stretch, and he was pulled after just 65 pitches and four innings last time out. A quick hook caps the walk total no matter how wild he is in the time he gets. But even in that short September 12 outing he still drew two walks, matching this line, and Toronto's lineup — modest at 2.82 walks a game as a team — isn't the type to speed him toward an early exit by working deep counts on their own. I'll take the walks.

  ×

  Kumar Rocker
  Pitcher Walks over 1.5

  -143 · CASHED · ACTUAL 2

  Texas Rangers

  Read Gary’s Take

  Kumar Rocker's over on 1.5 walks at -143. He's walked multiple hitters in seven of his last eight starts, and the season rate — 2.2 a start across 25 turns — sits almost exactly on this line, with his more recent stretch running hotter than that at 2.75 over the last eight. The stuff explains why: his slider is a real weapon at a .190 xwOBA and a 52 percent chase rate, but the sinker, cutter, and four-seamer all get hit hard when they catch the plate, ranging from .358 to .430 xwOBA. When a starter can't trust his fastball shapes for called strikes, he ends up pitching around the zone instead of in it, and free passes follow. He's also been the tougher watch at home all season — a 4.76 ERA in Arlington against 4.57 on the road, and 6.14 over his last three home starts — which tracks with a guy who doesn't have it as often on his own mound.

  The real risk here is usage, not stuff: Texas has been managing Rocker's innings down the stretch, and he was pulled after just 65 pitches and four innings last time out. A quick hook caps the walk total no matter how wild he is in the time he gets. But even in that short September 12 outing he still drew two walks, matching this line, and Toronto's lineup — modest at 2.82 walks a game as a team — isn't the type to speed him toward an early exit by working deep counts on their own. I'll take the walks.

• GARY'S PICK

  JOSH JUNGTOTAL BASES OVER 0.5

  MLBTexas Rangers· -179

  ✓ CASHED · ACTUAL 1

  GARY'S TAKE

  Josh Jung over 0.5 total bases at -179 — this is, at its core, a bet that he records a hit, and he's done exactly that in 11 of his last 15 games. He's been red-hot since returning from the injured list, hitting .389 over the last week, and his last two games alone produced two doubles, a single, and a home run — nine total bases across those two nights. He's a .298 hitter on the season and .281 against right-handed pitching specifically, so tonight's righty isn't the swing-killer matchup it might be against some of his teammates. The problem is which righty. Dylan Cease has held right-handed hitters to .202 this season and is actually better on the road than at home — a 1.89 ERA away from Toronto against 2.85 at home — and tonight is a road start for him. Jung is also 0-for-6 against Cease in his career, though that's a thin, dated sample I won't lean on heavily. What tips it back for me is recent, verifiable form: Cease's fastball has sat under 95 mph in each of his last two starts, a step down from his summer velocity, and Jung has collected a hit in 11 of his last 15 games riding this kind of heat. I'll take the single he needs to clear this number.

  ×

  Josh Jung
  Total Bases over 0.5

  -179 · CASHED · ACTUAL 1

  Texas Rangers

  Read Gary’s Take

  Josh Jung over 0.5 total bases at -179 — this is, at its core, a bet that he records a hit, and he's done exactly that in 11 of his last 15 games. He's been red-hot since returning from the injured list, hitting .389 over the last week, and his last two games alone produced two doubles, a single, and a home run — nine total bases across those two nights. He's a .298 hitter on the season and .281 against right-handed pitching specifically, so tonight's righty isn't the swing-killer matchup it might be against some of his teammates.

  The problem is which righty. Dylan Cease has held right-handed hitters to .202 this season and is actually better on the road than at home — a 1.89 ERA away from Toronto against 2.85 at home — and tonight is a road start for him. Jung is also 0-for-6 against Cease in his career, though that's a thin, dated sample I won't lean on heavily. What tips it back for me is recent, verifiable form: Cease's fastball has sat under 95 mph in each of his last two starts, a step down from his summer velocity, and Jung has collected a hit in 11 of his last 15 games riding this kind of heat. I'll take the single he needs to clear this number.

• THE LONG SHOT

  KAZUMA OKAMOTOHR OVER 0.5

  MLBToronto Blue Jays· +390

  LOST · ACTUAL 0

  GARY'S TAKE

  Kazuma Okamoto over 0.5 home runs at plus-390. He's in the middle of the best power stretch of his rookie season — three homers in his last seven days, five in his last fifteen, north of a 1.000 OPS in both windows — and he's already set Toronto's rookie franchise records for home runs and RBIs this year. Plus-390 implies a shade under 21 percent for tonight, and his season rate alone, 33 homers in 537 at-bats, lands almost exactly on that number even before accounting for how hot he is right now. The honest contrary case: even the best power hitters don't homer most nights, and a stretch this hot — five in fifteen games — usually cools before it continues, so there's real regression risk in leaning on the recent numbers too hard. His head-to-head history against Rocker is nothing, 0-for-3 for his career, and Globe Life Field is a neutral park with no thumb on the scale either way. What keeps me on the over is the pitcher in front of him: Rocker has allowed 18 home runs in 25 starts this season, and his sinker and cutter both get hit hard when they catch the plate, .358 and .430 xwOBA. A homer-prone arm against a hitter running this hot is where I want to spend a small piece of value at this price.

  ×

  Kazuma Okamoto
  HR over 0.5

  +390 · LOST · ACTUAL 0

  Toronto Blue Jays

  Read Gary’s Take

  Kazuma Okamoto over 0.5 home runs at plus-390. He's in the middle of the best power stretch of his rookie season — three homers in his last seven days, five in his last fifteen, north of a 1.000 OPS in both windows — and he's already set Toronto's rookie franchise records for home runs and RBIs this year. Plus-390 implies a shade under 21 percent for tonight, and his season rate alone, 33 homers in 537 at-bats, lands almost exactly on that number even before accounting for how hot he is right now.

  The honest contrary case: even the best power hitters don't homer most nights, and a stretch this hot — five in fifteen games — usually cools before it continues, so there's real regression risk in leaning on the recent numbers too hard. His head-to-head history against Rocker is nothing, 0-for-3 for his career, and Globe Life Field is a neutral park with no thumb on the scale either way. What keeps me on the over is the pitcher in front of him: Rocker has allowed 18 home runs in 25 starts this season, and his sinker and cutter both get hit hard when they catch the plate, .358 and .430 xwOBA. A homer-prone arm against a hitter running this hot is where I want to spend a small piece of value at this price.

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