Marlins at Diamondbacks

The read

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

All research from this day

• GARY'S PICK

  GRAHAM PAULEYH+R+RBI OVER 0.5

  MLBMiami Marlins· -146

  LOST · ACTUAL 0

  GARY'S TAKE

  Pauley's been the hottest bat in this Miami lineup that nobody's talking about — three homers and a 1.190 OPS in his last 23 at-bats this month. He sat the last two games while Miami faced a tougher righty arm, but he's back in the eight-hole tonight against Soroka, and this is about as low a bar as this board offers: one hit, one run, or one RBI in a game where he should see three or four plate appearances. His season line doesn't jump off the page, but the recent surge is real, and Miami's lineup has been scoring in bunches on this road trip. A club playing out the string can still put a bat like this to work; I like the floor here more than I dislike the modest juice.

  ×

  Graham Pauley
  H+R+RBI over 0.5

  -146 · LOST · ACTUAL 0

  Miami Marlins

  Read Gary’s Take

  Pauley's been the hottest bat in this Miami lineup that nobody's talking about — three homers and a 1.190 OPS in his last 23 at-bats this month. He sat the last two games while Miami faced a tougher righty arm, but he's back in the eight-hole tonight against Soroka, and this is about as low a bar as this board offers: one hit, one run, or one RBI in a game where he should see three or four plate appearances. His season line doesn't jump off the page, but the recent surge is real, and Miami's lineup has been scoring in bunches on this road trip. A club playing out the string can still put a bat like this to work; I like the floor here more than I dislike the modest juice.

• GARY'S PICK

  CORBIN CARROLLRBI UNDER 0.5

  MLBArizona Diamondbacks· -175

  ✓ CASHED · ACTUAL 0

  GARY'S TAKE

  Carroll's been running cold everywhere except the one swing that ended last night's game. Strip out that walk-off blast and look at the workmanlike log underneath it: no RBI in eleven of his last fifteen games, and a .122 average over his last fifteen days that tells me the contact just isn't there right now. He's a low-average, all-or-nothing bat who needs a mistake to drive in a run, and mistakes have been rare for him lately — 5-for-41 over that stretch. Batting fifth means he needs traffic in front of him too, and Arizona's top of the order has been streaky at best over the same two weeks. I'll note Junk has been hittable for lefties this year, so I'm not pretending there's zero risk of another souvenir ball — but one homer against a gassed reliever last night doesn't erase a five-week slump. I want the price on a hitter whose baseline says no RBI most nights, and -175 still pays for backing that baseline.

  ×

  Corbin Carroll
  RBI under 0.5

  -175 · CASHED · ACTUAL 0

  Arizona Diamondbacks

  Read Gary’s Take

  Carroll's been running cold everywhere except the one swing that ended last night's game. Strip out that walk-off blast and look at the workmanlike log underneath it: no RBI in eleven of his last fifteen games, and a .122 average over his last fifteen days that tells me the contact just isn't there right now.

  He's a low-average, all-or-nothing bat who needs a mistake to drive in a run, and mistakes have been rare for him lately — 5-for-41 over that stretch. Batting fifth means he needs traffic in front of him too, and Arizona's top of the order has been streaky at best over the same two weeks.

  I'll note Junk has been hittable for lefties this year, so I'm not pretending there's zero risk of another souvenir ball — but one homer against a gassed reliever last night doesn't erase a five-week slump. I want the price on a hitter whose baseline says no RBI most nights, and -175 still pays for backing that baseline.

• THE LONG SHOT

  NOLAN ARENADOHR OVER 0.5

  MLBArizona Diamondbacks· +800

  LOST · ACTUAL 0

  GARY'S TAKE

  Arenado's carrying the loudest bat in this lineup right now — three home runs in his last seven days and a 1.433 OPS to show for it, the kind of stretch that makes a plus-money home run number worth chasing. He's got sixteen homers against right-handed pitching this year, and Junk is a fastball-heavy righty who's already given up thirteen home runs in twenty-two starts this season, including one his last time out. Chase Field still plays as a hitter's building even with the roof shut, and Arenado is currently squaring up everything he sees. This is a swing-happy long shot by design, but the recent power output and the matchup against a homer-prone righty make the number worth playing.

  ×

  Nolan Arenado
  HR over 0.5

  +800 · LOST · ACTUAL 0

  Arizona Diamondbacks

  Read Gary’s Take

  Arenado's carrying the loudest bat in this lineup right now — three home runs in his last seven days and a 1.433 OPS to show for it, the kind of stretch that makes a plus-money home run number worth chasing. He's got sixteen homers against right-handed pitching this year, and Junk is a fastball-heavy righty who's already given up thirteen home runs in twenty-two starts this season, including one his last time out. Chase Field still plays as a hitter's building even with the roof shut, and Arenado is currently squaring up everything he sees. This is a swing-happy long shot by design, but the recent power output and the matchup against a homer-prone righty make the number worth playing.

Every prop from this day is on the archive page.