Mariners at Angels

The read

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

All research from this day

• GARY'S PICK

  LOGAN GILBERTPITCHER EARNED RUNS OVER 1.5

  MLBSeattle Mariners· -149

  ✓ CASHED · ACTUAL 2

  GARY'S TAKE

  Logan Gilbert's season line still reads like a mid-rotation building block — a 3.72 ERA, a WHIP close to 1.00 — but that isn't the pitcher who's taken the mound the last month. He's allowed multiple earned runs in seven of his last eight starts, and the recent ones have been the worst stretch of the bunch: a 7.71 ERA in September, 13 earned runs across his last three outings combined. The long ball is the biggest culprit. He's allowed 27 home runs in 29 starts this season, and six of those have come in his last three starts alone, including a four-homer third inning in a loss to Oakland. Tonight's Angels lineup sends out five right-handed bats, and Gilbert has been a meaningfully more hittable pitcher against right-handers all season, more than 100 points of OPS worse than what he shows lefties. His road numbers are genuinely better than his home splits, and I weighed that before landing here. But his recent starts have been rough regardless of ballpark, and it only takes one mistake pitch to clear a number this low against a lineup that can do damage in the middle innings. I don't need a blowup, just one bad frame, and he's supplied that in most of his recent trips to the mound.

  ×

  Logan Gilbert
  Pitcher Earned Runs over 1.5

  -149 · CASHED · ACTUAL 2

  Seattle Mariners

  Read Gary’s Take

  Logan Gilbert's season line still reads like a mid-rotation building block — a 3.72 ERA, a WHIP close to 1.00 — but that isn't the pitcher who's taken the mound the last month. He's allowed multiple earned runs in seven of his last eight starts, and the recent ones have been the worst stretch of the bunch: a 7.71 ERA in September, 13 earned runs across his last three outings combined. The long ball is the biggest culprit. He's allowed 27 home runs in 29 starts this season, and six of those have come in his last three starts alone, including a four-homer third inning in a loss to Oakland. Tonight's Angels lineup sends out five right-handed bats, and Gilbert has been a meaningfully more hittable pitcher against right-handers all season, more than 100 points of OPS worse than what he shows lefties.

  His road numbers are genuinely better than his home splits, and I weighed that before landing here. But his recent starts have been rough regardless of ballpark, and it only takes one mistake pitch to clear a number this low against a lineup that can do damage in the middle innings. I don't need a blowup, just one bad frame, and he's supplied that in most of his recent trips to the mound.

• GARY'S PICK

  RYAN JOHNSONPITCHER EARNED RUNS UNDER 2.5

  MLBLos Angeles Angels· +100

  ✓ CASHED · ACTUAL 1

  GARY'S TAKE

  Ryan Johnson in September is not the pitcher his 5.12 season ERA suggests. He posted a 1.71 ERA in August and a 3.00 in September, and over his last three starts he's allowed five earned runs across 17 innings combined. Six of his last eight outings have finished under this number. He's on the mound at home tonight, where he's pitched to a clearly better line all season than he has on the road, and the reporting out of Anaheim has him settling into a routine and sharpening up as the Angels audition him for a spot in next year's rotation. Seattle's lineup hasn't punished right-handed pitching this season, sitting under .500 against it, which lines up with the version of Johnson that's shown up the last several weeks. The honest risk here is the platoon matchup. Seattle trots out five left-handed bats tonight, and lefties have actually done more damage against Johnson this year than righties have. That's the one thing keeping this from being a bigger play for me. But the recent workload, the extra rest, and the home split are enough to take the even-money number on the under.

  ×

  Ryan Johnson
  Pitcher Earned Runs under 2.5

  +100 · CASHED · ACTUAL 1

  Los Angeles Angels

  Read Gary’s Take

  Ryan Johnson in September is not the pitcher his 5.12 season ERA suggests. He posted a 1.71 ERA in August and a 3.00 in September, and over his last three starts he's allowed five earned runs across 17 innings combined. Six of his last eight outings have finished under this number. He's on the mound at home tonight, where he's pitched to a clearly better line all season than he has on the road, and the reporting out of Anaheim has him settling into a routine and sharpening up as the Angels audition him for a spot in next year's rotation. Seattle's lineup hasn't punished right-handed pitching this season, sitting under .500 against it, which lines up with the version of Johnson that's shown up the last several weeks.

  The honest risk here is the platoon matchup. Seattle trots out five left-handed bats tonight, and lefties have actually done more damage against Johnson this year than righties have. That's the one thing keeping this from being a bigger play for me. But the recent workload, the extra rest, and the home split are enough to take the even-money number on the under.

• THE LONG SHOT

  RANDY AROZARENAHR OVER 0.5

  MLBSeattle Mariners· +444

  LOST · ACTUAL 0

  GARY'S TAKE

  Randy Arozarena is the swing I want on the longshot board tonight. Twenty-five home runs this season, and the version of him that hits right-handed pitching is the best version of this bat — an .813 OPS with fifteen of those homers coming against righties. He's not cooling off either, three home runs in his last fifteen days and one in his last week, and he's in the two-hole tonight seeing as many pitches as anyone in this order. Ryan Johnson has allowed sixteen home runs in sixteen starts this season, essentially one a start for the year, and he served up two more his last time out after a three-start stretch of keeping the ball in the park. That kind of full-season rate, against a bat this locked in versus right-handers, is what makes a plus-money swing worth the price. The fair pushback is that Johnson strung together three straight starts without allowing one before his last outing, and a single-game home run prop is a swing-and-miss bet by nature — I'm not calling this likely on any one at-bat. But at this price, against a pitcher on pace to give up a homer virtually every time out, with Arozarena seeing the ball this well right now, I like the value enough to take it.

  ×

  Randy Arozarena
  HR over 0.5

  +444 · LOST · ACTUAL 0

  Seattle Mariners

  Read Gary’s Take

  Randy Arozarena is the swing I want on the longshot board tonight. Twenty-five home runs this season, and the version of him that hits right-handed pitching is the best version of this bat — an .813 OPS with fifteen of those homers coming against righties. He's not cooling off either, three home runs in his last fifteen days and one in his last week, and he's in the two-hole tonight seeing as many pitches as anyone in this order. Ryan Johnson has allowed sixteen home runs in sixteen starts this season, essentially one a start for the year, and he served up two more his last time out after a three-start stretch of keeping the ball in the park. That kind of full-season rate, against a bat this locked in versus right-handers, is what makes a plus-money swing worth the price.

  The fair pushback is that Johnson strung together three straight starts without allowing one before his last outing, and a single-game home run prop is a swing-and-miss bet by nature — I'm not calling this likely on any one at-bat. But at this price, against a pitcher on pace to give up a homer virtually every time out, with Arozarena seeing the ball this well right now, I like the value enough to take it.

Every prop from this day is on the archive page.