Rangers at Mariners

The read

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

• GARY'S PICK

  ELIAS DIAZH+R+RBI OVER 0.5

  MLBTexas Rangers· -140

  LOST · ACTUAL 0

  GARY'S TAKE

  Elias Diaz catches the lefty for Texas tonight, and the number is one hit, run, or RBI at -140. He has gotten there in 10 of his last 15 games, one of the misses was a single late at-bat on Saturday, and as a starter he has been steady: a hit in each of his last two starts, a grand slam and a sacrifice fly for a seven-unit night on the 4th, and a .294 average with a homer in September. The reason he is in the lineup is the reason I like the bet. Diaz is a different hitter against left-handed pitching, .259 with an .830 OPS and six of his seven home runs in 85 at-bats, against .213 and a .546 OPS from the other side. Schumaker went back to him even after Danny Jansen homered and drove in four last night, because Diaz is the one who hits left-handers, and Kade Anderson has been hittable: .256 with a .746 OPS allowed to right-handers, a fastball being hit at .368, and 7 walks in 15 innings. Batting eighth, Diaz sees Anderson twice before the 80-pitch cap arrives, and then Seattle's overworked pen takes over, with the middle innings most likely falling to Rucker at a 6.69 ERA or whoever Wilson trusts after Bazardo's 25-pitch meltdown last night. Diaz does not walk, eight walks against 193 at-bats this season, which means nearly every trip is a swing at a hit, and that is what this prop wants. One single, one run driven in on a groundout, one trip around the bases after reaching on an error, and the bet cashes. The way this loses is a quiet day from the bottom of the order in a pitcher's park. He is a .233 hitter, the late innings will likely come against right-handed relievers where his bat goes flat, and if the game is close Schumaker could pinch-hit Pederson for him and hand the catching to Jansen, which caps him at three trips. Three at-bats for a .233 hitter is roughly a coin flip on the hit alone, and it is the runs and RBIs that carry this above the price. With a lineup expected to score around him and a lefty on the mound who has not been putting hitters away, I think the number is short.

  ×

  Elias Diaz
  H+R+RBI over 0.5

  -140 · LOST · ACTUAL 0

  Texas Rangers

  Read Gary’s Take

  Elias Diaz catches the lefty for Texas tonight, and the number is one hit, run, or RBI at -140. He has gotten there in 10 of his last 15 games, one of the misses was a single late at-bat on Saturday, and as a starter he has been steady: a hit in each of his last two starts, a grand slam and a sacrifice fly for a seven-unit night on the 4th, and a .294 average with a homer in September.

  The reason he is in the lineup is the reason I like the bet. Diaz is a different hitter against left-handed pitching, .259 with an .830 OPS and six of his seven home runs in 85 at-bats, against .213 and a .546 OPS from the other side. Schumaker went back to him even after Danny Jansen homered and drove in four last night, because Diaz is the one who hits left-handers, and Kade Anderson has been hittable: .256 with a .746 OPS allowed to right-handers, a fastball being hit at .368, and 7 walks in 15 innings. Batting eighth, Diaz sees Anderson twice before the 80-pitch cap arrives, and then Seattle's overworked pen takes over, with the middle innings most likely falling to Rucker at a 6.69 ERA or whoever Wilson trusts after Bazardo's 25-pitch meltdown last night.

  Diaz does not walk, eight walks against 193 at-bats this season, which means nearly every trip is a swing at a hit, and that is what this prop wants. One single, one run driven in on a groundout, one trip around the bases after reaching on an error, and the bet cashes.

  The way this loses is a quiet day from the bottom of the order in a pitcher's park. He is a .233 hitter, the late innings will likely come against right-handed relievers where his bat goes flat, and if the game is close Schumaker could pinch-hit Pederson for him and hand the catching to Jansen, which caps him at three trips. Three at-bats for a .233 hitter is roughly a coin flip on the hit alone, and it is the runs and RBIs that carry this above the price. With a lineup expected to score around him and a lefty on the mound who has not been putting hitters away, I think the number is short.

• GARY'S PICK

  EZEQUIEL DURANH+R+RBI OVER 1.5

  MLBTexas Rangers· +109

  LOST · ACTUAL 0

  GARY'S TAKE

  Ezequiel Duran leads off for Texas against a left-handed rookie on an 80-pitch leash, and the market is paying plus money on him reaching two hits, runs, and RBIs combined. He has cleared that number in 10 of his last 15 games and averages 2.1 a night for the season. He is the hottest bat in either dugout, 8-for-22 with two homers over the last week and .340 with three homers over 15 days, and the platoon split points the right way at .303 with an .870 OPS against left-handers. Kade Anderson is the reason this price exists. He has thrown between 79 and 85 pitches in each of his three starts and lasted 4.1 to 5.2 innings, so the leadoff man sees him three times, and Anderson has not been fooling anyone with the fastball. Hitters are batting .368 against it, its expected production has climbed in every start, and he has walked seven in 15 innings. Duran bats in front of Seager, Foscue, Nimmo, Langford, and Burger, and for a leadoff hitter the run column is where the second unit of this prop usually comes from. Texas has scored 6.1 runs a game over its last 10. The back half of the game helps too. Seattle used six of its nine relievers last night before a day game, and the pen carries a 6.82 ERA over the last 10 days. Muñoz, Domínguez, and Speier are rested, but somebody from Rucker at 6.69, Bazardo after 25 pitches, or Criswell and Ferrer on short rest has to cover an inning, and Duran's fourth and fifth trips to the plate come against that group. The way this loses is the strikeout. Duran punched out three times last night, he has 125 strikeouts in 477 at-bats this season, and Anderson's slider is his one genuinely good pitch, holding hitters to .143. T-Mobile Park in the daytime keeps balls in the yard, which trims the extra-base hits that make this number easy, and one hit plus nothing else is a very ordinary night that lands one short. But a leadoff hitter this hot, against this starter and this pen, should clear two more often than not, and at +109 I only need him to do it about half the time.

  ×

  Ezequiel Duran
  H+R+RBI over 1.5

  +109 · LOST · ACTUAL 0

  Texas Rangers

  Read Gary’s Take

  Ezequiel Duran leads off for Texas against a left-handed rookie on an 80-pitch leash, and the market is paying plus money on him reaching two hits, runs, and RBIs combined. He has cleared that number in 10 of his last 15 games and averages 2.1 a night for the season. He is the hottest bat in either dugout, 8-for-22 with two homers over the last week and .340 with three homers over 15 days, and the platoon split points the right way at .303 with an .870 OPS against left-handers.

  Kade Anderson is the reason this price exists. He has thrown between 79 and 85 pitches in each of his three starts and lasted 4.1 to 5.2 innings, so the leadoff man sees him three times, and Anderson has not been fooling anyone with the fastball. Hitters are batting .368 against it, its expected production has climbed in every start, and he has walked seven in 15 innings. Duran bats in front of Seager, Foscue, Nimmo, Langford, and Burger, and for a leadoff hitter the run column is where the second unit of this prop usually comes from. Texas has scored 6.1 runs a game over its last 10.

  The back half of the game helps too. Seattle used six of its nine relievers last night before a day game, and the pen carries a 6.82 ERA over the last 10 days. Muñoz, Domínguez, and Speier are rested, but somebody from Rucker at 6.69, Bazardo after 25 pitches, or Criswell and Ferrer on short rest has to cover an inning, and Duran's fourth and fifth trips to the plate come against that group.

  The way this loses is the strikeout. Duran punched out three times last night, he has 125 strikeouts in 477 at-bats this season, and Anderson's slider is his one genuinely good pitch, holding hitters to .143. T-Mobile Park in the daytime keeps balls in the yard, which trims the extra-base hits that make this number easy, and one hit plus nothing else is a very ordinary night that lands one short. But a leadoff hitter this hot, against this starter and this pen, should clear two more often than not, and at +109 I only need him to do it about half the time.

• THE LONG SHOT

  JUSTIN FOSCUEHR OVER 0.5

  MLBTexas Rangers· +700

  LOST · ACTUAL 0

  GARY'S TAKE

  Justin Foscue is the reason Texas stacks seven right-handed bats against a lefty, and tonight he moves up to third in the order against Kade Anderson. Against left-handed pitching this season he is hitting .325 with a 1.020 OPS and 8 home runs in 123 at-bats. He is 7-for-17 over the last week, 12-for-33 with three homers over 15 days, and he has a hit in six straight games. At +700 the book is pricing this like a true long shot, and the platoon numbers against this pitcher say it should be shorter than that, even after discounting a 123 at-bat sample. Anderson is the key. He is on a soft 80-pitch cap and has lasted between 4.1 and 5.2 innings in his three starts, so the three-hole should get him three times: once in the first, once around the third, and once more near the fifth. His four-seam fastball at 93.6 is being hit at .368, its expected production has climbed in each of his three outings and topped out at .583 last time against the A's, when Gelof took him deep in the first inning, and his velocity ticked down in that start. Three of the six scoring plays against him this year have been home runs. A right-handed hitter who sits on fastballs and does his damage against lefties is exactly the profile that has been getting to him. The way this loses is the park and the platoon on the back end. T-Mobile Park in a day game with marine air is one of the tougher places in the league to hit one out, there is only a light crosswind, and once Anderson exits Foscue becomes a .184 hitter with a .538 OPS against right-handers, which is what Seattle will show him from Rucker, Domínguez, or Muñoz. Schumaker may also lift him for Pederson late in a close game, so I am really betting on three swings at Anderson, and long shots on three at-bats miss most of the time. But three at-bats against a rookie whose fastball is getting hit hard, for a hitter who homers this often against lefties, is worth more than 7 to 1.

  ×

  Justin Foscue
  HR over 0.5

  +700 · LOST · ACTUAL 0

  Texas Rangers

  Read Gary’s Take

  Justin Foscue is the reason Texas stacks seven right-handed bats against a lefty, and tonight he moves up to third in the order against Kade Anderson. Against left-handed pitching this season he is hitting .325 with a 1.020 OPS and 8 home runs in 123 at-bats. He is 7-for-17 over the last week, 12-for-33 with three homers over 15 days, and he has a hit in six straight games. At +700 the book is pricing this like a true long shot, and the platoon numbers against this pitcher say it should be shorter than that, even after discounting a 123 at-bat sample.

  Anderson is the key. He is on a soft 80-pitch cap and has lasted between 4.1 and 5.2 innings in his three starts, so the three-hole should get him three times: once in the first, once around the third, and once more near the fifth. His four-seam fastball at 93.6 is being hit at .368, its expected production has climbed in each of his three outings and topped out at .583 last time against the A's, when Gelof took him deep in the first inning, and his velocity ticked down in that start. Three of the six scoring plays against him this year have been home runs. A right-handed hitter who sits on fastballs and does his damage against lefties is exactly the profile that has been getting to him.

  The way this loses is the park and the platoon on the back end. T-Mobile Park in a day game with marine air is one of the tougher places in the league to hit one out, there is only a light crosswind, and once Anderson exits Foscue becomes a .184 hitter with a .538 OPS against right-handers, which is what Seattle will show him from Rucker, Domínguez, or Muñoz. Schumaker may also lift him for Pederson late in a close game, so I am really betting on three swings at Anderson, and long shots on three at-bats miss most of the time. But three at-bats against a rookie whose fastball is getting hit hard, for a hitter who homers this often against lefties, is worth more than 7 to 1.