Mets at Marlins

The read

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

• GARY'S PICK

  ROBERT STOCKPITCHER OUTS UNDER 14.5

  MLBNew York Mets· -130

  ✓ CASHED · ACTUAL 12

  GARY'S TAKE

  Robert Stock is a 36-year-old journeyman who's been plugged into the rotation out of necessity, and his workload reflects it — he has not finished six innings in a single start all season, and his season average sits at exactly 13 outs per turn, well under tonight's number. He's gone under this total in four of his last six starts. Look at what's getting hit: his cutter and sinker combine for more than half his pitches, and hitters are batting .333 against the cutter and .391 against the sinker. That's not a subtle problem — that's the two most-used pitches in his mix getting handled consistently, and that's how a short-leash starter turns a decent outing into an early exit. His platoon splits back it up too, with quality contact allowed from both sides of the plate, so there's no favorable matchup angle for him to lean on against a Marlins lineup running six left-handed bats out there tonight. I know the Mets have talked about wanting to stretch him deeper into games as the rotation situation stays thin, and he's working with extra rest. But the baseline here is a pitcher who gets hit hard early and often, on a team whose own stated expectation walking into tonight is a bullpen that covers five-plus innings. I'll take the under.

  ×

  Robert Stock
  Pitcher Outs under 14.5

  -130 · CASHED · ACTUAL 12

  New York Mets

  Read Gary’s Take

  Robert Stock is a 36-year-old journeyman who's been plugged into the rotation out of necessity, and his workload reflects it — he has not finished six innings in a single start all season, and his season average sits at exactly 13 outs per turn, well under tonight's number. He's gone under this total in four of his last six starts.

  Look at what's getting hit: his cutter and sinker combine for more than half his pitches, and hitters are batting .333 against the cutter and .391 against the sinker. That's not a subtle problem — that's the two most-used pitches in his mix getting handled consistently, and that's how a short-leash starter turns a decent outing into an early exit. His platoon splits back it up too, with quality contact allowed from both sides of the plate, so there's no favorable matchup angle for him to lean on against a Marlins lineup running six left-handed bats out there tonight.

  I know the Mets have talked about wanting to stretch him deeper into games as the rotation situation stays thin, and he's working with extra rest. But the baseline here is a pitcher who gets hit hard early and often, on a team whose own stated expectation walking into tonight is a bullpen that covers five-plus innings. I'll take the under.

• GARY'S PICK

  JANSON JUNKPITCHER OUTS OVER 13.5

  MLBMiami Marlins· -115

  LOST · ACTUAL 9

  GARY'S TAKE

  Janson Junk is in the best form of his season. Over his last three starts he's posted a 1.88 ERA, and he's allowed two earned runs or fewer in five outings in a row. He's cleared this outs total in seven of his last eight turns, and the season-long shape backs the trend up — a 3.53 ERA across twelve home starts compared to 4.78 on the road, with a 1.72 mark over his last three specifically at loanDepot Park. He's also already faced this exact Mets lineup once this season, on July 31, and worked five shutout innings. The honest risk here is the platoon split. Junk holds right-handed hitters to a .613 OPS but gets hit for .786 by lefties, and tonight's Mets order is stacked with left-handed bats at the top. That's the same shape of lineup that knocked out both Sandy Alcantara and Eury Perez early in the first two games of this series. Junk isn't either of those two arms, though — he's been the far steadier, better-commanded pitcher on this staff all year, and I'm backing his current form and his history against this specific opponent to carry him through the number tonight.

  ×

  Janson Junk
  Pitcher Outs over 13.5

  -115 · LOST · ACTUAL 9

  Miami Marlins

  Read Gary’s Take

  Janson Junk is in the best form of his season. Over his last three starts he's posted a 1.88 ERA, and he's allowed two earned runs or fewer in five outings in a row. He's cleared this outs total in seven of his last eight turns, and the season-long shape backs the trend up — a 3.53 ERA across twelve home starts compared to 4.78 on the road, with a 1.72 mark over his last three specifically at loanDepot Park. He's also already faced this exact Mets lineup once this season, on July 31, and worked five shutout innings.

  The honest risk here is the platoon split. Junk holds right-handed hitters to a .613 OPS but gets hit for .786 by lefties, and tonight's Mets order is stacked with left-handed bats at the top. That's the same shape of lineup that knocked out both Sandy Alcantara and Eury Perez early in the first two games of this series. Junk isn't either of those two arms, though — he's been the far steadier, better-commanded pitcher on this staff all year, and I'm backing his current form and his history against this specific opponent to carry him through the number tonight.

• THE LONG SHOT

  HERIBERTO HERNANDEZHR OVER 0.5

  MLBMiami Marlins· +425

  LOST · ACTUAL 0

  GARY'S TAKE

  Heriberto Hernandez already has 24 home runs this season and he's in the middle of a real power run — five home runs in his last fifteen games, two of them in the last week. That power travels against right-handed pitching too; he's got fourteen home runs in 251 at-bats against righties this year, and he draws one tonight in Robert Stock. Stock's fastball-family pitches are exactly the problem. Hitters are batting .333 against his cutter and .391 against his sinker, and those two pitches make up more than half of what he throws. That's a pitcher leaving hittable stuff over the plate, and Hernandez, running this hot, is the kind of bat that turns one mistake into a home run. I like the price on this swing.

  ×

  Heriberto Hernandez
  HR over 0.5

  +425 · LOST · ACTUAL 0

  Miami Marlins

  Read Gary’s Take

  Heriberto Hernandez already has 24 home runs this season and he's in the middle of a real power run — five home runs in his last fifteen games, two of them in the last week. That power travels against right-handed pitching too; he's got fourteen home runs in 251 at-bats against righties this year, and he draws one tonight in Robert Stock.

  Stock's fastball-family pitches are exactly the problem. Hitters are batting .333 against his cutter and .391 against his sinker, and those two pitches make up more than half of what he throws. That's a pitcher leaving hittable stuff over the plate, and Hernandez, running this hot, is the kind of bat that turns one mistake into a home run. I like the price on this swing.