Cardinals at Giants

The read

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

• GARY'S PICK

  GRANT MCCRAYH+R+RBI UNDER 1.5

  MLBSan Francisco Giants· -172

  ✓ CASHED · ACTUAL 0

  GARY'S TAKE

  Grant McCray needs two of hits, runs and RBIs to beat this number, and almost nothing about his profile or his spot in this lineup gets him there. He is hitting .148 with a .563 OPS in 61 at-bats, .114 against right-handers, and he has cleared 1.5 in two of his last 15 games. He bats eighth in a Giants order that has Rafael Devers on the bench for the day game, so the hitters behind him are Christian Koss at a .594 OPS and Drew Gilbert at 2 for his last 16. The two in front of him, Cavanaugh and Whitcomb, are not stacking runners for him to drive in. Andre Pallante is the other half. He keeps the ball on the ground at a 1.63 ground-out to air-out ratio, has allowed six homers to left-handers in 293 at-bats, and has not given up a homer in his last seven starts. McCray's best skills are the walk and the stolen base, and neither one counts here. A walk, a steal and a run scored still leaves him one short. He needs the hit first, and the marine air in this park is not going to turn one of his fly balls into the three-for-one homer that beats this line. The tail risk is the warm afternoon and the wind blowing toward the 309-foot corner in right, and McCray did homer four days ago in New York. I will live with that. Devers sitting on the bench also means the most likely pinch-hit spot late in a close game is McCray's, which takes a plate appearance away from him. Heavy juice, but the shape of this bet is a .148 hitter needing two things to go right against a groundball pitcher, and I do not think it happens often enough to pay -172 the other way.

  ×

  Grant McCray
  H+R+RBI under 1.5

  -172 · CASHED · ACTUAL 0

  San Francisco Giants

  Read Gary’s Take

  Grant McCray needs two of hits, runs and RBIs to beat this number, and almost nothing about his profile or his spot in this lineup gets him there. He is hitting .148 with a .563 OPS in 61 at-bats, .114 against right-handers, and he has cleared 1.5 in two of his last 15 games. He bats eighth in a Giants order that has Rafael Devers on the bench for the day game, so the hitters behind him are Christian Koss at a .594 OPS and Drew Gilbert at 2 for his last 16. The two in front of him, Cavanaugh and Whitcomb, are not stacking runners for him to drive in.

  Andre Pallante is the other half. He keeps the ball on the ground at a 1.63 ground-out to air-out ratio, has allowed six homers to left-handers in 293 at-bats, and has not given up a homer in his last seven starts. McCray's best skills are the walk and the stolen base, and neither one counts here. A walk, a steal and a run scored still leaves him one short. He needs the hit first, and the marine air in this park is not going to turn one of his fly balls into the three-for-one homer that beats this line.

  The tail risk is the warm afternoon and the wind blowing toward the 309-foot corner in right, and McCray did homer four days ago in New York. I will live with that. Devers sitting on the bench also means the most likely pinch-hit spot late in a close game is McCray's, which takes a plate appearance away from him. Heavy juice, but the shape of this bet is a .148 hitter needing two things to go right against a groundball pitcher, and I do not think it happens often enough to pay -172 the other way.

• GARY'S PICK

  ANDRE PALLANTEPITCHER OUTS OVER 15.5

  MLBSt. Louis Cardinals· +110

  LOST · ACTUAL 15

  GARY'S TAKE

  This is a bet on the pitch count more than the pitcher, and I am taking it at plus money because the lineup on the other side gives him every chance to work fast. Andre Pallante has cleared 15.5 outs in six of his last eight starts and 14 of his last 17. The two recent misses were a six-run night against Milwaukee in July and his return from the injured list on Friday, when he walked four in the first three innings and was lifted after five innings and 72 pitches with a three-run lead. That last one is the whole risk. He skipped a rehab assignment, so the leash was short, and the elbow that put him on the shelf will keep his manager careful. Here is why I still take it. Second starts off the injured list generally get the next step up, and for a pitcher who sat between 88 and 103 pitches all summer that is a budget around 90. Pallante averages just over five pitches an out because he pitches to contact on the ground, with a 1.63 ground-out to air-out ratio and a 5.1 percent barrel rate. At 90 pitches that pace carries him into the sixth. The Giants are sending out a lineup without Rafael Devers, and the bottom four are Whitcomb at a .506 OPS, Cavanaugh at .597, McCray at .563 and Koss at .594. Drew Gilbert is 2 for 16 over the past week and Jung Hoo Lee is 3 for 21. Bryce Eldridge is the one at-bat that demands care. The rest of the order is where quick outs come from, and Oracle Park in a day game does not turn mistakes into crooked numbers. The way this loses is a walk-filled early inning that pushes him to 85 pitches by the end of the fifth. With every Cardinals reliever but Graceffo rested, Marmol would have no reason to push. That makes this close to a coin flip on its own, which is why the price matters. Plus money on a pitcher who has gone this deep in two of every three starts this year, against the weakest nine he will see this month, is a number I take once.

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  Andre Pallante
  Pitcher Outs over 15.5

  +110 · LOST · ACTUAL 15

  St. Louis Cardinals

  Read Gary’s Take

  This is a bet on the pitch count more than the pitcher, and I am taking it at plus money because the lineup on the other side gives him every chance to work fast. Andre Pallante has cleared 15.5 outs in six of his last eight starts and 14 of his last 17. The two recent misses were a six-run night against Milwaukee in July and his return from the injured list on Friday, when he walked four in the first three innings and was lifted after five innings and 72 pitches with a three-run lead. That last one is the whole risk. He skipped a rehab assignment, so the leash was short, and the elbow that put him on the shelf will keep his manager careful.

  Here is why I still take it. Second starts off the injured list generally get the next step up, and for a pitcher who sat between 88 and 103 pitches all summer that is a budget around 90. Pallante averages just over five pitches an out because he pitches to contact on the ground, with a 1.63 ground-out to air-out ratio and a 5.1 percent barrel rate. At 90 pitches that pace carries him into the sixth. The Giants are sending out a lineup without Rafael Devers, and the bottom four are Whitcomb at a .506 OPS, Cavanaugh at .597, McCray at .563 and Koss at .594. Drew Gilbert is 2 for 16 over the past week and Jung Hoo Lee is 3 for 21. Bryce Eldridge is the one at-bat that demands care. The rest of the order is where quick outs come from, and Oracle Park in a day game does not turn mistakes into crooked numbers.

  The way this loses is a walk-filled early inning that pushes him to 85 pitches by the end of the fifth. With every Cardinals reliever but Graceffo rested, Marmol would have no reason to push. That makes this close to a coin flip on its own, which is why the price matters. Plus money on a pitcher who has gone this deep in two of every three starts this year, against the weakest nine he will see this month, is a number I take once.

• THE LONG SHOT

  NOLAN GORMANHR OVER 0.5

  MLBSt. Louis Cardinals· +600

  LOST · ACTUAL 0

  GARY'S TAKE

  The home run board has three Cardinals, and the one whose swing fits the afternoon is Nolan Gorman. He is a pull hitter from the left side, and the wind is blowing out toward a right field corner that sits 309 feet away on a 77-degree day, about as friendly as Oracle Park gets for a left-handed fly ball. Blade Tidwell is the other reason. He is an extreme fly-ball pitcher, a 0.53 ground-out to air-out ratio with a 10.1 percent barrel rate allowed, and left-handers have hit .280 with an .867 OPS and four homers in 82 at-bats against him. His four-seam fastball carries a .418 expected wOBA and gets whiffs only 14.8 percent of the time, and he gave up three homers the last time he pitched in this park. Gorman is not hitting for average, .182 on the season and 0 for 6 in this series, but this market pays on home runs, not hits. Nine of his 44 hits have left the yard, eight of them against right-handers, and his last two came within the past two weeks. He bats sixth, which should get him two looks at Tidwell before the Giants go to a pen where the fresh arms are right-handers and a lefty who has not pitched in 25 days. At +600 the book is asking me to believe he goes deep about one time in seven. His 4 percent per at-bat home run rate against right-handers gets close to that before you account for the pitcher and the wind, and Tidwell's fastball is exactly the pitch Gorman's swing was built to punish.

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  Nolan Gorman
  HR over 0.5

  +600 · LOST · ACTUAL 0

  St. Louis Cardinals

  Read Gary’s Take

  The home run board has three Cardinals, and the one whose swing fits the afternoon is Nolan Gorman. He is a pull hitter from the left side, and the wind is blowing out toward a right field corner that sits 309 feet away on a 77-degree day, about as friendly as Oracle Park gets for a left-handed fly ball. Blade Tidwell is the other reason. He is an extreme fly-ball pitcher, a 0.53 ground-out to air-out ratio with a 10.1 percent barrel rate allowed, and left-handers have hit .280 with an .867 OPS and four homers in 82 at-bats against him. His four-seam fastball carries a .418 expected wOBA and gets whiffs only 14.8 percent of the time, and he gave up three homers the last time he pitched in this park.

  Gorman is not hitting for average, .182 on the season and 0 for 6 in this series, but this market pays on home runs, not hits. Nine of his 44 hits have left the yard, eight of them against right-handers, and his last two came within the past two weeks. He bats sixth, which should get him two looks at Tidwell before the Giants go to a pen where the fresh arms are right-handers and a lefty who has not pitched in 25 days. At +600 the book is asking me to believe he goes deep about one time in seven. His 4 percent per at-bat home run rate against right-handers gets close to that before you account for the pitcher and the wind, and Tidwell's fastball is exactly the pitch Gorman's swing was built to punish.