Blue Jays at Athletics

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The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

• GARY'S PICK

  VLADIMIR GUERRERO JR.H+R+RBI UNDER 2.5

  MLBToronto Blue Jays· -130

  ✓ CASHED · ACTUAL 0

  GARY'S TAKE

  Guerrero needs three counting stats to beat this number, and the hitter he has been this year does not stack them. He is slugging .354 with 8 home runs in 494 at-bats, so the one swing that gets him to three on its own is rare, and 11 of his last 15 games have landed at 2 or fewer. Three of his four overs in that stretch came on multi-hit days, and one of them was the 9 he posted in an 11-0 rout in Cleveland. On the game side I liked his .783 OPS against left-handers meeting Basso, and I still do. But Basso has not gone past three innings all season, so that buys Guerrero one look, maybe two. The rest of his afternoon is against Oakland's right-handers, where he hits .251 with a .648 OPS and 5 homers in 370 at-bats. A single off Basso and a run scored on Kirk or Okamoto is two. The third has to come from a second hit or an RBI, and with McAdoo and his .294 on-base hitting in front of him, most of the RBI chances run through Bateman alone. The setting helps the under. It is a day game after a night game, 92 degrees, the ninth game of a nine-game road trip. He cleared this Tuesday with two singles and a run, and the price says the market expects a repeat: -130 asks for about 57 percent, and his season profile at 1.9 per game sits closer to 70 for the under. The way this loses is a blowout, the Cleveland game again, with Tur and Johnson soaking up innings for a pen that spent 65 pitches on Roycroft and Hartlieb yesterday. That is real, and it is why this is a moderate play and not a large one.

  ×

  Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
  H+R+RBI under 2.5

  -130 · CASHED · ACTUAL 0

  Toronto Blue Jays

  Read Gary’s Take

  Guerrero needs three counting stats to beat this number, and the hitter he has been this year does not stack them. He is slugging .354 with 8 home runs in 494 at-bats, so the one swing that gets him to three on its own is rare, and 11 of his last 15 games have landed at 2 or fewer. Three of his four overs in that stretch came on multi-hit days, and one of them was the 9 he posted in an 11-0 rout in Cleveland.

  On the game side I liked his .783 OPS against left-handers meeting Basso, and I still do. But Basso has not gone past three innings all season, so that buys Guerrero one look, maybe two. The rest of his afternoon is against Oakland's right-handers, where he hits .251 with a .648 OPS and 5 homers in 370 at-bats. A single off Basso and a run scored on Kirk or Okamoto is two. The third has to come from a second hit or an RBI, and with McAdoo and his .294 on-base hitting in front of him, most of the RBI chances run through Bateman alone.

  The setting helps the under. It is a day game after a night game, 92 degrees, the ninth game of a nine-game road trip. He cleared this Tuesday with two singles and a run, and the price says the market expects a repeat: -130 asks for about 57 percent, and his season profile at 1.9 per game sits closer to 70 for the under. The way this loses is a blowout, the Cleveland game again, with Tur and Johnson soaking up innings for a pen that spent 65 pitches on Roycroft and Hartlieb yesterday. That is real, and it is why this is a moderate play and not a large one.

• GARY'S PICK

  ALEJANDRO KIRKH+R+RBI UNDER 2.5

  MLBToronto Blue Jays· -135

  ✓ CASHED · ACTUAL 1

  GARY'S TAKE

  Kirk has finished at 2 or fewer in 12 of his last 15 games. The three times he cleared this number he had two hits, and he has had exactly three multi-hit games in that stretch, so the over and the multi-hit day have been the same thing. He is a contact hitter, 32 strikeouts in 236 at-bats, who lives at one hit and one other item. His season average is 1.8 per game, and 2.5 means a second hit, a homer, or a hit plus a run plus an RBI in about four trips. He hits left-handers well, .308 with a .798 OPS, and that is one at-bat against Basso, perhaps two if Oakland stretches him to a fourth inning for the first time this season. After that it is Blewett, Medina, Alvarado and the rest of Oakland's right-handed pen, where Kirk is .259 with a .745 OPS. He is the DH today with Valenzuela behind the plate, a day game after a night game in 92-degree heat at the end of a nine-game trip. The risk is plain and I will name it. This park plays small, the wind blows toward right, and he hit one to right-center off Lopez on Monday. A homer gets him to three by itself. The board prices that at +800, and I passed on it for the same reason I am here: it happens roughly one game in seven for him, and the rest of the time he is a singles hitter with a .294 on-base man batting two spots ahead. At -135 the market wants about 57 percent. Twelve of fifteen and a season at 1.8 per game say more than that.

  ×

  Alejandro Kirk
  H+R+RBI under 2.5

  -135 · CASHED · ACTUAL 1

  Toronto Blue Jays

  Read Gary’s Take

  Kirk has finished at 2 or fewer in 12 of his last 15 games. The three times he cleared this number he had two hits, and he has had exactly three multi-hit games in that stretch, so the over and the multi-hit day have been the same thing. He is a contact hitter, 32 strikeouts in 236 at-bats, who lives at one hit and one other item. His season average is 1.8 per game, and 2.5 means a second hit, a homer, or a hit plus a run plus an RBI in about four trips.

  He hits left-handers well, .308 with a .798 OPS, and that is one at-bat against Basso, perhaps two if Oakland stretches him to a fourth inning for the first time this season. After that it is Blewett, Medina, Alvarado and the rest of Oakland's right-handed pen, where Kirk is .259 with a .745 OPS. He is the DH today with Valenzuela behind the plate, a day game after a night game in 92-degree heat at the end of a nine-game trip.

  The risk is plain and I will name it. This park plays small, the wind blows toward right, and he hit one to right-center off Lopez on Monday. A homer gets him to three by itself. The board prices that at +800, and I passed on it for the same reason I am here: it happens roughly one game in seven for him, and the rest of the time he is a singles hitter with a .294 on-base man batting two spots ahead. At -135 the market wants about 57 percent. Twelve of fifteen and a season at 1.8 per game say more than that.

• THE LONG SHOT

  BRIAN SERVENHR OVER 0.5

  MLBOakland Athletics· +820

  LOST · ACTUAL 0

  GARY'S TAKE

  Serven has 5 home runs in 63 at-bats this season, and 4 of his last 15 games included one. He is catching because Langeliers is on the shelf and Heim sat after an 0-for-7 series, and he hits eighth, which matters today. Fisher has never gone past 1.1 innings in eight starts, so Serven's first trip comes in the second or third inning against whoever takes Toronto's bulk innings. Lorenzen is the reported name, and his 7.03 ERA and 1.86 WHIP over 121.2 innings are the softest numbers on either staff for anyone with real work. Serven's power has come against right-handers, 3 homers in 30 at-bats with an .836 OPS. The park is hitter-friendly and it is 92 degrees. What works against him is the wind, which blows toward right and helps the other side of the plate more than his, and his own form: 2-for-11 over the last week and 0-for-3 with a strikeout on Sunday in Seattle. Sixty-three at-bats is not a track record. If Toronto turns to its left-handers, Mantiply, Tiedemann and Fluharty, he is a .636 OPS hitter against them with 2 homers in 33 at-bats. At +820 the ticket pays on about 11 percent. A hitter with his rate in this park getting three swings at Toronto's middle sits closer to 14 or 15, and that gap is the bet. It is a long shot and I am sizing it as one. Nothing about it changes my view that Toronto is the better side today.

  ×

  Brian Serven
  HR over 0.5

  +820 · LOST · ACTUAL 0

  Oakland Athletics

  Read Gary’s Take

  Serven has 5 home runs in 63 at-bats this season, and 4 of his last 15 games included one. He is catching because Langeliers is on the shelf and Heim sat after an 0-for-7 series, and he hits eighth, which matters today. Fisher has never gone past 1.1 innings in eight starts, so Serven's first trip comes in the second or third inning against whoever takes Toronto's bulk innings. Lorenzen is the reported name, and his 7.03 ERA and 1.86 WHIP over 121.2 innings are the softest numbers on either staff for anyone with real work. Serven's power has come against right-handers, 3 homers in 30 at-bats with an .836 OPS.

  The park is hitter-friendly and it is 92 degrees. What works against him is the wind, which blows toward right and helps the other side of the plate more than his, and his own form: 2-for-11 over the last week and 0-for-3 with a strikeout on Sunday in Seattle. Sixty-three at-bats is not a track record. If Toronto turns to its left-handers, Mantiply, Tiedemann and Fluharty, he is a .636 OPS hitter against them with 2 homers in 33 at-bats.

  At +820 the ticket pays on about 11 percent. A hitter with his rate in this park getting three swings at Toronto's middle sits closer to 14 or 15, and that gap is the bet. It is a long shot and I am sizing it as one. Nothing about it changes my view that Toronto is the better side today.