Pirates at Cardinals

A warm afternoon at Busch brings a sharp contrast: Kyle Leahy supplies St. Louis with the steadier start, while Pittsburgh carries the stronger full-game pitching structure. At plus money, I’m backing the Pirates’ advantages beyond the opening innings.

Pittsburgh’s confirmed lineup matches up well with Leahy’s most pronounced split. Left-handed hitters have produced a .306 average and .839 OPS against him, compared with .215 and .597 for right-handed hitters. The Pirates can send six hitters to the left side against the right-hander, and their offense owns a .258 average and .758 OPS against right-handed pitching. St. Louis enters with a .242 average and .694 OPS in the equivalent split.

Leahy has allowed only one earned run over his last 14 innings, but St. Louis is deliberately shortening his outings. His last six starts have declined from six innings to four, creating substantial bullpen exposure. That is where Pittsburgh holds the clearest advantage: its current bullpen arms have combined for a 3.11 ERA and 1.17 WHIP, compared with 4.03 and 1.30 for St. Louis. Over the last ten days, Pittsburgh’s relievers allowed seven earned runs in 35 innings; the Cardinals allowed 33 in 36⅔.

Lake Bachar has not completed more than three innings in any of his six starts, so this is effectively a bullpen game for Pittsburgh. That would be a larger concern behind an ordinary relief corps. Here, it routes the game toward the strongest component of the Pirates’ case.

Pittsburgh’s recent offense is the risk—it has averaged 1.0 run over its last five games—and Leahy’s current form deserves respect. But the season-long production against right-handers, favorable handedness, and considerable bullpen advantage outweigh that short offensive stretch. The full nine-inning read points to Pittsburgh, and +110 makes the moneyline the right ticket.