Mariners at Blue Jays
O/U 7.5 · RL Blue Jays -1.5 · Rogers Centre
Blue Jays ML-108
CONF 56%
WCashedFinal 3-4
The read
Rogers Centre gets a second look at Seattle, but this is a different pitching matchup from Toronto’s 8-1 win in the opener. The Blue Jays still have the steadier path across nine innings.
José Soriano brings a 3.43 ERA over 144.1 innings, while Kade Anderson is making only his second MLB start. Anderson’s Double-A record and competitive debut deserve respect, but Toronto is countering the left-hander with eight right-handed hitters.
The lineup matchup is not decisive: Toronto owns only a .642 OPS against lefties, while Seattle has a .706 OPS against righties. Soriano has also posted a 4.86 ERA over his last three starts. Those are the risks that keep this close.
The separator is Toronto’s greater pitching depth. Its current bullpen carries a 3.18 ERA and 1.24 WHIP, compared with Seattle’s 4.00 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. With the primary late-inning options available on both sides, that larger season sample matters more than either bullpen’s volatile recent stretch. At a near-even price, I’ll back Soriano and Toronto’s stronger relief foundation.
Props on this game
2Brett BatemanOVER 0.5 Singles Singles-120
Not yet graded
Bateman’s profile is built for this market: 21 of his 24 hits have been singles, and he has recorded one in 12 of his last 15 games. He is 9-for-20 over the past week and owns a .400 average in 25 at-bats against lefties. That platoon sample is small, but batting leadoff against a pitcher making his second MLB start should give Bateman four or five chances. I like the price on one single.
Jose SorianoUNDER 5.5 Strikeouts Strikeouts-135
LActual 6
Soriano has exceeded five strikeouts in only two of his last eight starts. His season rate is solid, but 143 strikeouts through 26 starts still puts his average right at 5.5, and his recent whiff rates have been inconsistent. Seattle strikes out plenty as a team, but several hitters near the top and middle of this lineup make regular contact. With Soriano also failing to complete six innings in four of his last six starts, I’ll make him reach six strikeouts to beat me.
Every pick posts before the game and is graded after, in public. In the app you can ride or fade any of them, and your book keeps score against Gary's.
Download on the App Store