Reds at Diamondbacks

The read

• Gabriel MorenoOVER 1.5 Total Bases Total Bases+112

  WActual 2

  I’m backing Moreno to clear 1.5 total bases at plus money. He is batting .370 with a 1.080 OPS over the last 15 days and has beaten this number in 11 of his last 15 games. The quality behind that run is convincing: a 91.0 mph average exit velocity, 10 hard-hit balls and three barrels on his last 21 balls in play.

  Nick Lodolo has allowed an .808 OPS to right-handed hitters, and his most-used pitch, the sinker, carries a .456 xwOBA and .312 batting average against it. Moreno bats third and has the extra-base ability to finish this with one swing. At +112, the matchup and current contact quality give me enough value to play the over.

• Nick LodoloUNDER 15.5 Pitcher Outs Pitcher Outs-158

  WActual 10

  Lodolo needs to record an out in the sixth inning to beat this number, and Cincinnati has stopped him after four and five innings in his two starts since he returned. He threw only 70 and 73 pitches in those outings and has gone over 15.5 outs in just two of his last eight starts.

  Arizona presents eight hitters who will bat right-handed against him and owns a .274 average with a .785 OPS against left-handed pitching. Lodolo’s sinker has been hit hard, his season WHIP is 1.42, and Arizona can make him work even without producing a crooked number. The price is substantial, but five innings or fewer remains the clearest expectation.

• Sal StewartOVER 0.5 Home Runs Home Runs+475

  LActual 0

  Stewart leads every hitter on this field with 27 home runs, and he's not slowing down — three more in his last 15 games with a .791 OPS in that stretch. He's a right-handed hitter with a .898 OPS against lefties this season, and Eduardo Rodriguez is a lefty who's been far more hittable for power against righties than lefties this year — 11 homers allowed to right-handed bats compared to just 3 to lefties. That's Stewart's exact profile lining up with Rodriguez's exact weakness. The price undersells how live this bat has been all season.

• Matt McLainOVER 0.5 Home Runs Home Runs+880

  LActual 0

  McLain is as hot as anyone in this lineup — he hit a grand slam last night and has three home runs in his last 15 games with an .845 OPS in that stretch. He's a right-handed bat who's done real damage against left-handed pitching, four homers in 74 at-bats this year, and his recent contact data backs it up: three barreled balls in his last 18 in play, the best rate on this board. Eduardo Rodriguez has had his own bumps lately too, a 4.34 ERA over his last three starts. At nearly 9-to-1, this price pays for itself if McLain keeps swinging the way he has been.

• Eugenio SuarezOVER 0.5 Home Runs Home Runs+475

  LActual 0

  Suarez has hit for a .977 OPS with four home runs over his last 15 games, and this is a hitter built entirely around the long ball — 18 homers on the year, at almost the identical rate against both righties and lefties. He's 3-for-11 against Arizona pitching already this season. Eduardo Rodriguez is a good pitcher having a good year, but he's been worse than his season line over his last three starts, and Suarez doesn't need much of a mistake to leave the yard.

• Nolan ArenadoOVER 0.5 Home Runs Home Runs+650

  LActual 0

  Arenado has four home runs in his last 15 games, and he's a righty with a .806 OPS against left-handed pitching this year — six homers in 106 at-bats. Nick Lodolo is the pitcher he draws tonight, and Lodolo has been a completely different animal against right-handed hitters than lefties this season: 11 home runs allowed to righties in 202 at-bats against just 1 to lefties in 67. His sinker in particular has gotten hit hard all year. Arenado is a veteran who doesn't miss mistakes, and Lodolo has a history of leaving them out over the plate against right-handed bats.

• Elly De La CruzOVER 0.5 Home Runs Home Runs+575

  LActual 0

  De La Cruz's batting average has cratered the last two weeks — .143 over his last 15 games — but the contact quality hasn't: he's averaging 97.6 mph off the bat recently with a hard-hit rate near 65 percent, and he's still found the seats twice in that stretch. The bigger signal is what he does against left-handed pitching specifically: a 1.040 OPS with eight home runs in 115 at-bats this season, one of the biggest platoon splits on this roster. Eduardo Rodriguez is a quality lefty, but De La Cruz has made a habit of punishing pitchers who throw from that side, and the exit velocity says the swing is still there even while the average lags behind.