Angels at Rangers
O/U 7.5 · RL Rangers -1.5 · Globe Life Field
Angels ML+124
CONF 60%
LLostFinal 1-2
The read
The roof is shut at Globe Life Field, the weather is gone, and two in-form left-handers take center stage in an American League West rematch. This sets up as a game decided late, and at plus money I’m backing the Angels to win it outright.
Reid Detmers is the separator. He enters with a 3.78 ERA and 1.06 WHIP, compared with MacKenzie Gore’s 4.45 ERA and 1.26 WHIP, while their last-three-start ERAs are nearly identical at 2.00 and 2.12. Detmers also owns the better season line in this matchup: a 3.50 ERA over three starts against Texas, while Gore has a 4.96 ERA over three against Los Angeles. Texas is starting six right-handed hitters, but Detmers has limited righties to a .203 average and .619 OPS. The Angels counter Gore with seven right-handed hitters; he has allowed them a .226 average and .693 OPS. When these starters met 11 days ago, both allowed one run before the game went to extra innings. I see another narrow contest, but I trust Detmers to put Los Angeles in the stronger position.
The bullpen pushes me across the counter. The Angels’ current relief group carries a 3.55 ERA and 1.25 WHIP, with a 2.75 ERA over the last seven games. Texas is at 3.90 and 1.34 for the season and 5.68 over its last seven. Texas owns the better season hitting split against left-handers—.250 with a .737 OPS versus the Angels’ .237 and .696—and the Rangers are the cleaner defensive club, so this is no free square. But the Angels have won eight of the 12 meetings, the teams are even at Globe Life Field, and the better starting-pitcher and bullpen combination is carrying the plus price. My money is on Los Angeles.
Props on this game
7MacKenzie GoreUNDER 17.5 Pitcher Outs Pitcher Outs+120
LActual 18
Gore must complete six innings to beat this number, something he has done only twice in his last eight starts. Even while pitching better recently, he needed 99, 103 and 99 pitches to record 17, 16 and 18 outs in his last three. The Angels forced him to throw 103 pitches across just 5 1/3 innings when they saw him 11 days ago, and Texas has enough rested relief options to make an early move. I’m taking plus money on Gore leaving before the end of the sixth.
Reid DetmersOVER 6.5 Strikeouts Strikeouts+105
LActual 5
Detmers has 167 strikeouts in 143 innings, and this Texas matchup has amplified that swing-and-miss ability. He has struck out 26 Rangers over 18 innings across three meetings this season, including a 14-strikeout performance. His slider owns a 37% whiff rate, an important weapon against a lineup starting six right-handed hitters, and he enters off 11 strikeouts in eight scoreless innings. Seven is a fair target, and the plus price makes the over worth taking.
Justin FoscueOVER 0.5 Home Runs Home Runs+650
LActual 0
Foscue is running as hot as anyone in this lineup, hitting .500 with a homer over his last week, and the season-long shape of his power points right at tonight's matchup — 6 of his 8 home runs have come against left-handed pitching in only 92 at-bats, a rate that dwarfs his production against right-handers. He already has a home run off Detmers this year, and his most recent look at similar stuff shows a 4 percent whiff rate and 10 percent chase rate, meaning he's tracking the ball well right now. Detmers is striking out everybody he faces at the moment, but his fastball and curveball have both given up real damage on contact this season, and Foscue's lefty-mashing profile gives him a live shot at one.
Jake BurgerOVER 0.5 Home Runs Home Runs+456
LActual 0
Burger's got 21 home runs this season, and that power plays up even more against left-handed pitching — a .276 average and .868 OPS with 7 of those 21 homers coming in just 105 at-bats against lefties. He already touched Detmers for one this year, and he's in the middle of a hot week with 2 homers in his last 7 games and 2 barrels among his last 13 balls in play at a 92.3 mph average exit velocity. Detmers has been missing bats at an elite rate lately, but hitters who do make contact with his fastball have hurt him — a .352 expected weighted on-base against it — and Burger is exactly the kind of pull-power right-handed bat built to punish that pitch.
Mike TroutOVER 0.5 Home Runs Home Runs+464
LActual 0
Trout has already beaten Gore for a home run this year — the solo shot in their last meeting on August 10 was the only run Gore allowed that night. He's hitting .271 against lefties this season with an .858 OPS and 5 homers in 107 at-bats, and he's got 20 home runs on the year. His last couple weeks have been quieter and the loud contact hasn't shown up as often, but Gore's fastball and cutter have both surrendered real power this season, and Trout has already proven tonight's exact matchup can go his way.
Corey SeagerOVER 0.5 Home Runs Home Runs+408
LActual 0
Seager is the hottest hitter on this roster by the numbers — 3 home runs in his last 15 games with a .295 average and .909 OPS in that stretch, and the underlying contact backs it up, with 2 barrels among his last 15 balls in play at nearly 92 mph average exit velocity. He hasn't connected against Detmers yet this season and his overall line against lefties is modest by his standards, but a bat running this hot, with this much authority on contact, is a threat to go deep against anybody on the mound tonight.
Zach NetoOVER 0.5 Home Runs Home Runs+453
LActual 0
Neto just turned in a career night — 5 hits, a homer and 7 RBIs against Houston on Thursday — and he leads the Angels with 21 home runs this season. He's hitting .260 against left-handed pitching with 6 homers in 131 at-bats, and the swing is clearly in a good place right now. Gore has struck him out five times in nine at-bats in their meetings this year, so this specific matchup hasn't been kind to him, but a hitter with this kind of power total and this much recent momentum is worth trusting to keep it rolling.
Every pick posts before the game and is graded after, in public. In the app you can ride or fade any of them, and your book keeps score against Gary's.
Download on the App Store