Rockies at Diamondbacks
O/U 9 · RL Diamondbacks -1.5
Diamondbacks ML-173
CONF 64%
LLostFinal 6-4
The read
Getaway day in the desert, roof closed, rubber match at Chase Field — and the pitching matchup tells you almost everything you need to know before the first pitch of the afternoon. Merrill Kelly takes the ball for Arizona riding the best stretch of his season, two runs or fewer in six of his last seven trips, and he already owns a complete game against this Colorado club this year. Ryan Feltner comes the other way off three straight starts where the innings got loud — a dozen earned runs over his last sixteen-plus, with the long ball doing most of the damage. Hand that profile to this Arizona lineup, in this building, and it's asking for trouble: Arenado hit a grand slam Monday and has four homers in two weeks, Marte and Carroll both went deep in the first inning last night, and Moreno is swinging as well as anyone on the roster.
The Rockies' side of the ledger got thinner overnight. Kyle Karros — who hit the two-run homer that stole Tuesday's game — went on the concussion list this morning after that ugly infield collision, and he joins Tyler Freeman on the shelf. Strip those two out and you're left with a patchwork right side and a lineup that, outside of one swing, had gone fifteen consecutive scoreless innings in this series. Jake McCarthy is genuinely hot at the top and the lefty-heavy order is built to bother Kelly, but Kelly's changeup is precisely the pitch that neutralizes that look, and he's locating it as well as he has all year. Then there's the handoff: if this one reaches the bullpens, Arizona rolls out one of the stingiest relief units in the league while Colorado's pen has been leaking runs all season. The sixth through ninth innings tilt heavily purple-free.
So why the moneyline and not the run line? Because Colorado, for all its flaws, plays Arizona tight — the series is even at a game apiece, they've split eight at this ballpark, and these teams have traded one-run and even 1-0 decisions all season. Kelly's home outings haven't always been spotless either, so I'm not paying for margin. I'm paying for the win: better starter in better form, the dramatically better bullpen, a home lineup with the platoon edge against a homer-prone righty, and a road offense that just lost its hottest power bat on the day of the game. Diamondbacks moneyline at -173 is the play — lay it and let the pitching gap do the work.
Props on this game
6Merrill KellyUNDER 17.5 Pitcher Outs Pitcher Outs+102
WActual 15
I’m fading Kelly’s workload, not his effectiveness. He has completed six innings just once in his last six starts, and now he returns five days after leaving an 80-pitch outing with a leg cramp.
Colorado can make this uncomfortable with six left-handed or switch hitters, the side that has produced an .871 OPS against Kelly this season. Arizona also has a deep, rested bullpen, so there is no reason to force a third trip through the order in a getaway game.
Kelly can pitch well and still leave after five or five-plus; getting the under at plus money is the value.
Ryan FeltnerOVER 2.5 Pitcher Earned Runs Pitcher Earned Runs-143
LActual 2
Feltner has allowed at least three earned runs in five consecutive starts, surrendering 12 over his last 16 1/3 innings. The underlying matchup is just as ugly: both sides have an OPS above .800 against him, his barrel rate allowed sits in double digits, and his slider has been punished all season. Arizona can attack immediately with Carroll, Moreno and Marte, then keep the pressure on with Arenado and Tawa. Feltner does not need to get blown up for this to cash; three runs across roughly five innings clears it, and that is the most likely shape of his afternoon.
Mickey MoniakOVER 0.5 Home Runs Home Runs+850
LActual 0
Mickey Moniak is my favorite shot on this board. Merrill Kelly has been considerably more hittable against left-handed batters this season, allowing close to an .870 OPS with fifteen home runs surrendered to lefties, and Moniak fits that profile exactly.
He's cleared this homer number three times in his last fifteen games, and he's swung the bat well in day games this year, which matters on this getaway-day matinee. Kelly's fastball and cutter have both been hit hard all season — hitters are batting over .340 against the fastball — and for as much as Kelly has owned this Rockies club historically, his actual home numbers this year are worse than his road numbers, a 5.77 ERA at Chase Field against 4.27 everywhere else.
Moniak, in his best platoon look with real recent pop, is the one I want most at plus-850.
Ketel MarteOVER 0.5 Home Runs Home Runs+850
LActual 0
Ketel Marte went deep last night and I like him to do it again this afternoon. He's cleared this homer number in three of his last fifteen games, and it's not empty box-score luck — he's barreling the ball at an excellent clip lately, three barrels in his last seventeen batted balls. Switching sides against Ryan Feltner erases any platoon concern, and there's no safe way to face Feltner right now regardless of which side of the plate a hitter stands on: he's been hit hard by lefties and righties alike this season, with ten home runs allowed over his last six starts and his two most-used pitches, the fastball and slider, both getting tagged all year. Marte is a switch-hitting middle-of-the-order bat riding real form against a starter who can't keep the ball in the park, and at plus-850 that's a number I want.
Hunter GoodmanOVER 0.5 Home Runs Home Runs+550
LActual 0
Hunter Goodman is Colorado's most dangerous bat and I don't mind paying a shorter price for real power in a good spot. He's cleared this homer total twice in his last fifteen games, he's been squaring the ball up well recently with a strong barrel rate, and today he's the DH rather than the catcher, so his only job is to hit.
Merrill Kelly's contact numbers allowed this season are shakier than his ERA suggests — a hard-hit rate over forty-four percent, with hitters batting over .340 against his fastball — and Goodman is exactly the kind of bat that turns a mistake pitch into a souvenir. He's handled day games well this season too.
Plus-550 isn't a longshot number, but Goodman is a legitimate power threat in a favorable matchup, and I want that in the mix.
Nolan ArenadoOVER 0.5 Home Runs Home Runs+800
LActual 0
Nolan Arenado is locked in right now, and I want a piece of him going deep again. He put a grand slam into the seats Monday and has gone deep four times in his last fifteen games, the kind of stretch that tells you the swing is right regardless of what the season-long batting line says.
The matchup sets up about as well as it gets: Ryan Feltner has allowed ten home runs across his last six starts, a stretch that includes a 6.61 ERA over his last three outings alone, and he's been especially hittable against right-handed bats, who own close to a .900 OPS against him this year. Feltner's fastball and slider — his two most-used pitches — have both been hit hard all season, and Arenado has made a living turning mistakes in the zone into souvenirs.
Chase Field plays hitter-friendly overall, and with the roof closed and no wind to knock anything down, a professional hitter seeing the ball this well against a pitcher who can't keep it in the yard is worth the price at plus-800.
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