MLB · Wed, Aug 12 · 6:40 PM

Pirates at Marlins

O/U 8.5 · RL Marlins -1.5

GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Pirates· -114

## Gary's Take — Pirates at Marlins, Marlins ML (-114) The roof is closed in Miami and the Marlins are playing their best baseball of the summer — three straight wins, a 2-0 shutout of Paul Skenes on Tuesday behind Eury Pérez, and a club that's climbed within shouting distance of the wild card while the Pirates' season quietly bleeds out. Tonight the aces step aside and the undercard takes the ball: Janson Junk for Miami, Carmen Mlodzinski for Pittsburgh. That's exactly where this game gets decided. The starter gap is the whole card. Junk has been a different pitcher in this building and a quietly stingy one of late — three earned runs across his last three turns — and his profile smothers right-handed bats, which is precisely what populates the bottom half of a Pittsburgh order missing Oneil Cruz, Ryan O'Hearn, and Endy Rodríguez. The Pirates are scoring three runs a game over their last ten and just got blanked; this is not the lineup that punishes a fifth starter having a good month at home. Mlodzinski, meanwhile, is one outing into a rushed stretch-out — three innings, five runs against a Mets team going nowhere — he gives up loud contact, and his real weakness is left-handed hitters. That's a problem when Griffin Conine is the hottest bat on either roster and Jakob Marsee is spraying hits behind him. Even without Kyle Stowers, Miami's dangerous hitters are the ones who match up. The honest counter is Pittsburgh's bullpen — Weaver, Yates, Doval, and Soto make up the better and fresher relief corps, especially after Yohan Ramírez soaked up every relief inning Tuesday, while Miami's late-inning duo has worked hard all week. If this game reaches the seventh tied, the Pirates hold the cards. But they have to get there first, and asking a cold, shorthanded offense to keep pace through five while their own starter is on a short leash is asking a lot. Home team at 37-24 in its own park, better form, better tonight-specific starter, and a short price. I'll lay the -114 on the Marlins — a lean, not a pound, but the right side.

## Gary's Take — Pirates at Marlins, Marlins ML (-114)

The roof is closed in Miami and the Marlins are playing their best baseball of the summer — three straight wins, a 2-0 shutout of Paul Skenes on Tuesday behind Eury Pérez, and a club that's climbed within shouting distance of the wild card while the Pirates' season quietly bleeds out. Tonight the aces step aside and the undercard takes the ball: Janson Junk for Miami, Carmen Mlodzinski for Pittsburgh. That's exactly where this game gets decided.

The starter gap is the whole card. Junk has been a different pitcher in this building and a quietly stingy one of late — three earned runs across his last three turns — and his profile smothers right-handed bats, which is precisely what populates the bottom half of a Pittsburgh order missing Oneil Cruz, Ryan O'Hearn, and Endy Rodríguez. The Pirates are scoring three runs a game over their last ten and just got blanked; this is not the lineup that punishes a fifth starter having a good month at home. Mlodzinski, meanwhile, is one outing into a rushed stretch-out — three innings, five runs against a Mets team going nowhere — he gives up loud contact, and his real weakness is left-handed hitters. That's a problem when Griffin Conine is the hottest bat on either roster and Jakob Marsee is spraying hits behind him. Even without Kyle Stowers, Miami's dangerous hitters are the ones who match up.

The honest counter is Pittsburgh's bullpen — Weaver, Yates, Doval, and Soto make up the better and fresher relief corps, especially after Yohan Ramírez soaked up every relief inning Tuesday, while Miami's late-inning duo has worked hard all week. If this game reaches the seventh tied, the Pirates hold the cards. But they have to get there first, and asking a cold, shorthanded offense to keep pace through five while their own starter is on a short leash is asking a lot. Home team at 37-24 in its own park, better form, better tonight-specific starter, and a short price. I'll lay the -114 on the Marlins — a lean, not a pound, but the right side.

The pick & result

Published pick: Marlins ML -114
Published odds: -114
Result: Won
Final score: 2-8

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The read

## Gary's Take — Pirates at Marlins, Marlins ML (-114)

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

STARTER FORM

Janson Junk: 2.13 ERA over his last 3 starts
2.13
His WHIP is actually a touch higher than his season mark of 1.36, so the difference isn't fewer runners — it's what's happened to them once they're on base. Eleven strikeouts across twelve-plus innings means he's still not pitching deep, averaging barely four innings a start, but he's kept this 2.13 mark well clear of the 4.63 he's carried for the season without cutting down on traffic.

PLATOON EDGE

Griffin Conine (bats L) hits 3rd against Carmen Mlodzinski (RHP)
.986
Conine mashes right-handed pitching for real, not on a small sample, and hitting third against Mlodzinski guarantees him three or four looks with traffic in front of him. About as clean a platoon setup as this lineup offers — he's stacked right where he'll see the most of a pitcher who throws from his good side.
Brandon Lowe (bats L) draws Janson Junk (RHP), batting 2nd
.902
Lowe's blended season line is misleading — strip out the lefty at-bats and he's a much better hitter against right-handers, which is exactly what Junk brings. Batting second guarantees him multiple looks, with a real shot at a runner already on ahead of him.

COOLING OFF

Esmerlyn Valdez: .477 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Janson Junk
.477
This is the rare cold streak where the matchup makes it worse instead of better — Valdez already struggles with right-handers relative to his season number, and Junk brings exactly that look. No favorable side of the plate to hide on tonight.
Otto Lopez: .483 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Carmen Mlodzinski
.483
Three-plus weeks cold, and Mlodzinski isn't the reason — Lopez's numbers against right-handers barely dip off his season line, so this would look the same against a lefty. He has to find the barrel himself tonight; the matchup won't do it for him.

FIRST INNING

PIT have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 1 of their last 10
1/10
Pittsburgh's bats going quiet early has been the pattern, and tonight it's Junk and Mlodzinski on the mound, two starters who've both limited first-inning damage all year rather than one shaky arm to jump on. Games that open this quiet tend to stay that way into the middle innings and get decided by the bullpens late instead.

RUNNING GAME

Miami Marlins like to run — Henry Davis (49% caught) is the wrong catcher to test
49% CS
Miami tests everybody regardless of who's catching, and tonight that means running into a guy who's cut down basically half his attempts. Every stolen base try carries real risk of an out that can shut a Marlins rally down before it starts — watch the first attempt or two.

HEAD-TO-HEAD

Marlins are 4-1 vs Pirates this season
4-1
Marlins lead the season series 4-1 over Pirates. MIA won the last meeting 8-2.

TEAM RECORD

Pirates 6-2 in Carmen Mlodzinski's last 8 starts
6-2
Pittsburgh plays a cleaner, more complete game on Mlodzinski's turns — 6-2 in his last eight starts. That identity travels with them to Miami tonight, and it's worth more than their overall record.

REGRESSION

Jake Mangum: .299 AVG vs .255 xBA
.255
Across 353 plate appearances, Jake Mangum carries a .299 average versus a .255 xBA. His wOBA sits at .328 against a .290 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit below what he has actually posted.
Carmen Mlodzinski: 3.51 ERA vs 4.95 xERA
4.95
A 46.7% hard-hit rate is one of the higher marks in this group, but a 7.5% barrel rate says hitters have been squaring him up without getting the loft to turn it into real damage. A 1.36 WHIP means the traffic's still there, and the gap between .262 actual and .284 expected has been friendlier than it figures to stay against Miami.

All research from this day

About this analysis

Who made it: Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data: Daily picks first stored August 12, 2026 at 12:22 PM ET.
Odds record: The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, caesars, draftkings, betmgm, betrivers, fanatics.
Accountability: Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.

Props on this game

GARY'S PICK
CARMEN MLODZINSKIK'S UNDER 3.5
MLBPittsburgh Pirates· -113
✓ CASHED · ACTUAL 1
Mlodzinski is still being handled like a swingman, not a fully stretched-out starter. He threw 63 pitches and recorded one strikeout over three innings in his first start after a 74-day gap, and Pittsburgh has made it clear it does not expect traditional starter length from him. Even if he reaches the fifth, four strikeouts is a demanding number for a pitcher with only four across his last 13 starting innings. Miami also gives him several difficult strikeout targets near the top and middle of the order. Xavier Edwards, Otto Lopez and Jakob Marsee all have recent whiff rates of 17% or lower, with Edwards and Marsee also refusing to chase. The vulnerable hitters at the bottom may give Mlodzinski a couple, but the short leash and contact-heavy portion of the lineup make under 3.5 the play at close to even money.
Carmen Mlodzinski
K'S under 3.5
-113 · CASHED · ACTUAL 1
Pittsburgh Pirates
Mlodzinski is still being handled like a swingman, not a fully stretched-out starter. He threw 63 pitches and recorded one strikeout over three innings in his first start after a 74-day gap, and Pittsburgh has made it clear it does not expect traditional starter length from him. Even if he reaches the fifth, four strikeouts is a demanding number for a pitcher with only four across his last 13 starting innings.
Miami also gives him several difficult strikeout targets near the top and middle of the order. Xavier Edwards, Otto Lopez and Jakob Marsee all have recent whiff rates of 17% or lower, with Edwards and Marsee also refusing to chase. The vulnerable hitters at the bottom may give Mlodzinski a couple, but the short leash and contact-heavy portion of the lineup make under 3.5 the play at close to even money.
GARY'S PICK
GRIFFIN CONINEWALKS OVER 0.5
MLBMiami Marlins· +188
✓ CASHED · ACTUAL 3
Conine is the one Miami hitter Mlodzinski cannot afford to challenge carelessly. He has four homers and a .909 OPS over the last 15 days, with a 95.7 mph average exit velocity and three barrels on only 15 balls in play. Mlodzinski has been much more vulnerable to left-handed hitters, allowing a .771 OPS to that side, and he has issued five walks over his last 13 starting innings. The lineup construction helps this price. With Kyle Stowers out and Heriberto Hernandez hitting behind Conine despite a 5-for-45 stretch, Pittsburgh has every reason to work around the hottest bat rather than give him something over the plate. Conine has already drawn a walk in six of his last 15 games, so +188 is enough for me to take one free pass.
Griffin Conine
Walks over 0.5
+188 · CASHED · ACTUAL 3
Miami Marlins
Conine is the one Miami hitter Mlodzinski cannot afford to challenge carelessly. He has four homers and a .909 OPS over the last 15 days, with a 95.7 mph average exit velocity and three barrels on only 15 balls in play. Mlodzinski has been much more vulnerable to left-handed hitters, allowing a .771 OPS to that side, and he has issued five walks over his last 13 starting innings.
The lineup construction helps this price. With Kyle Stowers out and Heriberto Hernandez hitting behind Conine despite a 5-for-45 stretch, Pittsburgh has every reason to work around the hottest bat rather than give him something over the plate. Conine has already drawn a walk in six of his last 15 games, so +188 is enough for me to take one free pass.
THE LONG SHOT
GRIFFIN CONINEHR OVER 0.5
MLBMiami Marlins· +450
✓ CASHED · ACTUAL 1
Conine is the hottest bat in this lineup right now — four home runs and a .909 OPS over his last fifteen days, backed up by a 95.7 mph average exit velo and three barrels in his last fifteen balls in play. He's locked into the three-hole and playing every day with Kyle Stowers out on the injured list with a hamstring strain, so the at-bats are secure, not a platoon share. The matchup sweetens it further: Carmen Mlodzinski gets hit hard by left-handed batters this season, a .771 OPS against, and his sinker specifically has been drilled for a .348 average and a .410 expected wOBA. Mlodzinski's last time out was a disaster — three innings, five earned runs, a homer allowed — and he's still finding his footing back in a rotation role after a long layoff and a demotion earlier this year. That's a lot of signal lined up in one direction for a hitter running this hot, and +450 pays well for it.
Griffin Conine
HR over 0.5
+450 · CASHED · ACTUAL 1
Miami Marlins
Conine is the hottest bat in this lineup right now — four home runs and a .909 OPS over his last fifteen days, backed up by a 95.7 mph average exit velo and three barrels in his last fifteen balls in play. He's locked into the three-hole and playing every day with Kyle Stowers out on the injured list with a hamstring strain, so the at-bats are secure, not a platoon share.
The matchup sweetens it further: Carmen Mlodzinski gets hit hard by left-handed batters this season, a .771 OPS against, and his sinker specifically has been drilled for a .348 average and a .410 expected wOBA. Mlodzinski's last time out was a disaster — three innings, five earned runs, a homer allowed — and he's still finding his footing back in a rotation role after a long layoff and a demotion earlier this year.
That's a lot of signal lined up in one direction for a hitter running this hot, and +450 pays well for it.
THE LONG SHOT
BRANDON LOWEHR OVER 0.5
MLBPittsburgh Pirates· +360
LOST · ACTUAL 0
Lowe is carrying real thump into this one — four homers over his last fifteen days, two of them in the last week alone, with a 94.7 mph average exit velo backing up the power. He's a left-handed bat walking into exactly the matchup he wants: Janson Junk gets torched by lefties this year, a .320 average and .860 OPS against with six homers allowed in just 200 at-bats. Junk's slider and sweeper are the two pitches getting squared up hardest in his mix, and Lowe hits second tonight, so he's guaranteed a full look at both. Junk's barrel rate allowed is only middling, but a 41 percent hard-hit rate says contact against him is finding loud contact even when it's not a barrel. Add in a hitter-friendly park at loanDepot, and +360 is a fair number for a power bat this hot against a starter with this specific problem.
Brandon Lowe
HR over 0.5
+360 · LOST · ACTUAL 0
Pittsburgh Pirates
Lowe is carrying real thump into this one — four homers over his last fifteen days, two of them in the last week alone, with a 94.7 mph average exit velo backing up the power. He's a left-handed bat walking into exactly the matchup he wants: Janson Junk gets torched by lefties this year, a .320 average and .860 OPS against with six homers allowed in just 200 at-bats.
Junk's slider and sweeper are the two pitches getting squared up hardest in his mix, and Lowe hits second tonight, so he's guaranteed a full look at both. Junk's barrel rate allowed is only middling, but a 41 percent hard-hit rate says contact against him is finding loud contact even when it's not a barrel.
Add in a hitter-friendly park at loanDepot, and +360 is a fair number for a power bat this hot against a starter with this specific problem.

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