Reds at Rockies
O/U 7.5 · RL Rockies -1.5 · Coors Field
The pick & result
- Published pick
- Rockies ML -116
- Published odds
- -116
- Result
- Lost
- Final score
- 7-2
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The read
Welcome to Coors Field in downtown Denver, where a sweltering ninety-three-degree heatwave and thin mountain air set the stage for a high-scoring battle between the Reds and the Rockies. In an environment where the ball carries endlessly, pitching survival is the name of the game, and tonight's matchup features a volatile veteran trying to navigate his road demons against a high-velocity youngster looking to build on an impressive debut.
My money is on the Rockies to take the series opener at home, and the reasoning starts with fading Brady Singer. Singer has been absolutely dreadful away from home this season, carrying a horrific 6.75 road ERA. In Coors Field, his fly-ball-leaning tendencies (0.88 GO/AO) are extremely dangerous, especially against a Rockies lineup loaded with left-handed batters who have systematically dismantled him all year. Lefties are slashing .295 with a massive .885 OPS and 14 home runs off Singer this season. Colorado's projected lineup features Jake McCarthy, who is hitting .395 with runners in scoring position, and Mickey Moniak, who boasts a spectacular 1.080 Home OPS and 12 home runs in Denver. They are perfectly positioned to tee off on Singer’s sinker and cutter in these hot conditions.
Meanwhile, Colorado starts Gabriel Hughes, a high-velocity prospect who flashed elite potential in his first start, posting a 3.00 ERA and 1.00 WHIP over 9.0 innings with a 2.67 xERA. Hughes relies on a blazing 93.4 mph four-seamer and a 94.1 mph sinker, with his four-seamer already generating a 29.2% whiff rate and a stingy .228 xwOBA. Unlike Singer, who is extremely predictable, Hughes' raw velocity and relative unfamiliarity give him a major upper hand against a Reds lineup that can struggle with high-whiff stuff. With both bullpens fully rested and refreshed coming out of the All-Star break, Colorado's depth concerns are mitigated for tonight. Lay the small price on the home side in a matchup custom-made for their left-handed bats.
Injuries noted
Rockies: [KNOWN] Chase Dollander (SP) — Elbow (Right): Dollander underwent an internal brace procedure on his right elbow Monday, Kevin Henry of The Denver Gazette reports. (Jun 23 — 24d ago) [KNOWN] Brenton Doyle (CF) — Oblique (Left): The Rockies returned Doyle (oblique) from his rehab assignment Sunday, but he remains on the 10-day injured list. (Jul 5 — 12d ago) [KNOWN] Blas Castano (RP) — Pectoral (Right): Castano (pectoral) is expected to begin a throwing program next week, MLB.com reports. (Jul 3 — 14d ago) [KNOWN] Welinton Herrera (RP) — Elbow (Left): Rockies manager Warren Schaeffer announced Monday that Herrera (elbow) has been diagnosed with a torn UCL and will miss the remainder of the season, Jack Janes of MLB.com reports. (Jun 2 — 45d ago) [KNOWN] Jose Quintana (SP) — Elbow (Left): Quintana (elbow) is scheduled to play catch Monday, Thomas Harding of MLB.com reports. (Jul 5 — 12d ago) [KNOWN] Jaden Hill (RP) — Shoulder (Right): Hill (shoulder) resumed playing catch Wednesday, MLB.com reports. (Jul 2 — 15d ago) [NEW] Tomoyuki Sugano (SP) — Back (Not Specified): Sugano (back) is expected to rejoin the Rockies' rotation with a start Saturday against the Reds, Thomas Harding of MLB.com reports. (Jul 16 — 1d ago) [KNOWN] Seth Halvorsen (RP) — Shoulder (Right): The Rockies placed Halvorsen on the 15-day injured list Saturday, retroactive to July 1, due to right shoulder inflammation. (Jul 4 — 13d ago) Reds: [KNOWN] Graham Ashcraft (RP) — Elbow (Right): Ashcraft is expected to resume throwing soon after receiving good news Tuesday regarding the imaging on his injured right elbow UCL, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports. (Jun 30 — 17d ago) [KNOWN] Brandon Williamson (Starting Pitcher) — Shoulder (Left): Williamson (shoulder) injured his finger while working out, and his rehab program has been pushed back by about 10 days as a result, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports. (Jun 28 — 19d ago) [KNOWN] Blake Dunn (CF) — Elbow (Right): Dunn (elbow) hoped to resume baseball activity Saturday but was not ready, MLB.com reports. (Jul 5 — 12d ago) [KNOWN] Tony Santillan (RP) — Oblique (Left): Reds manager Terry Francona said Friday that an MRI on Santillan's left oblique showed a significant strain, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports. (Jun 26 — 21d ago) [KNOWN] Matt McLain (2B) — Calf (Not Specified): The Reds placed McLain on the 10-day injured list with a strained calf, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports. (Jul 10 — 7d ago) [KNOWN] Nick Lodolo (SP) — Finger (Left): Lodolo (finger) will likely require a stint on the injured list, C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic reports. (Jul 12 — 5d ago)
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
PLATOON EDGE
Mickey Moniak (bats L) gets a RHP from the 2nd spot
.973Mickey Moniak's vs. Right line (.973 OPS, 169 AB) sits well above his .588 mark the other way (40 AB). Tonight's starter Brady Singer throws RHP, the hand he hits best.
HEAT CHECK
Jake McCarthy: 1.157 OPS in Last 15 Days
1.157The last 15 days sample runs 41 PA: a 1.157 OPS versus .863 for the season, 0.294 above his norm. He has 10 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
PARK WEATHER
93° at Coors Field — the ball will carry tonight
93°FTonight's reading at Coors Field — Partly Cloudy, 93°, wind 9 mph, R To L. Everything about the air says carry. The total sits at 12.
STREAK
CIN games have gone UNDER 4 straight
U44 straight unders for CIN — their games are producing only 6.3 runs against numbers around 10.9. Tonight's number sits at 12.
TEAM RECORD
Reds 1-7 in Brady Singer's last 8 starts
1-7Reds are 1-7 in Brady Singer's last 8 starts this season — losers of his last 4 in a row. He starts tonight.
REGRESSION
Mickey Moniak: .278 AVG vs .229 xBA
.229Mickey Moniak's .278 average comes against a .229 expected (xBA) on 227 plate appearances. His wOBA sits at .380 against a .312 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit below what he has actually posted.
TJ Rumfield: .296 AVG vs .250 xBA
.250TJ Rumfield's .296 average comes against a .250 expected (xBA) on 384 plate appearances. His wOBA sits at .374 against a .323 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit below what he has actually posted.
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Daily picks first stored July 17, 2026 at 12:10 PM ET.
- Odds record
- The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, fanatics, draftkings, betrivers, betmgm, caesars.
- Accountability
- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
Props on this game
1- GARY'S PICKMICKEY MONIAKH+R+RBI OVER 2.5
Mickey Moniak is in a statistical perfect storm tonight. Brady Singer is a fly-ball-leaning pitcher (0.88 GO/AO) who has been shredded by left-handed hitters all season, allowing a .295 average and a massive .885 OPS to the platoon.
Moniak, a lefty who mashes righties (.973 OPS vs RHP), enters this game on a significant tear, having gone 6-for-9 with two home runs over his last two starts. The environment at Coors Field—93-degree heat and thin air—drastically increases the flight of fly balls, playing right into Moniak's power-gap profile against a pitcher who struggles with barrels (10.1% barrel rate allowed).
Batting second in the order, Moniak will see maximum plate appearances and hit directly in front of power threats like Hunter Goodman, providing ample opportunities to accumulate runs and RBIs even if he doesn't leave the yard.
Every prop from this day is on the archive page.
Every pick posts before the game and is graded after, in public. My Book on this website lets you tail or fade listed calls and keeps your record separately labeled; Gary is also available as a native iOS app.
Get Gary on the App StoreEvery MLB game this dayThe MLB recordToday's MLB picksEvery sport this day