MLB · Fri, Jul 17 · 7:05 PM

Dodgers at Yankees

O/U 3.5 · RL Dodgers -1.5 · Yankee Stadium

GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Dodgers· -104

Welcome to the Bronx, where the heat is rising to 82 degrees and two of baseball's most storied franchises clash under the lights of Yankee Stadium to kick off the second half of the season. Tonight's marquee matchup features two powerhouse rotations starting their aces, but the betting value sits squarely with the home team at a near-even price of -104. While Gerrit Cole's surface numbers look slightly elevated with a 4.04 ERA, his 3.48 xERA reveals he has pitched much better than his results, especially when pitching at Yankee Stadium where he boasts a stellar 3.22 Home ERA. On the other side, Roki Sasaki has been a different pitcher outside of Los Angeles, carrying a porous 6.25 ERA on the road and a highly vulnerable 12.8% barrel rate allowed. The matchup advantages heavily favor the Yankees' bats tonight. Sasaki relies heavily on his 4-seam fastball, using it 43.2% of the time, but the pitch has been hit hard all year, yielding a .319 batting average and a .428 xwOBA. The Yankees' lineup features seven left-handed or switch-hitting bats, including Ben Rice, who is primed to exploit this exact weakness with his spectacular .454 xwOBA against 4-seam fastballs. To make matters worse for Sasaki, the Dodgers are missing their star catcher Will Smith due to a neck injury, forcing Dalton Rushing into the starting role. Rushing ranks near the bottom of the league in catcher framing at -3 runs, which offers zero help to a struggling starter, while the Yankees' Austin Wells ranks in the 90th percentile with +4 runs of framing value to help guide Cole through tight spots. With both bullpens fully rested coming out of the All-Star break, the Yankees also hold a massive depth advantage in the late innings. New York has a settled, high-leverage bridge leading to David Bednar, who has compiled 18 saves with a 2.70 ERA. The Dodgers, conversely, are navigating extensive high-leverage injuries, leaving Tanner Scott heavily isolated. Under the warm 82-degree summer sky with a 9 mph wind blowing out to left field, the Yankees' lefty-heavy lineup is perfectly situated to punish Sasaki's vulnerable fastball. Back the Yankees on the moneyline to take the opener.

The matchup advantages heavily favor the Yankees' bats tonight. Sasaki relies heavily on his 4-seam fastball, using it 43.2% of the time, but the pitch has been hit hard all year, yielding a .319 batting average and a .428 xwOBA. The Yankees' lineup features seven left-handed or switch-hitting bats, including Ben Rice, who is primed to exploit this exact weakness with his spectacular .454 xwOBA against 4-seam fastballs. To make matters worse for Sasaki, the Dodgers are missing their star catcher Will Smith due to a neck injury, forcing Dalton Rushing into the starting role. Rushing ranks near the bottom of the league in catcher framing at -3 runs, which offers zero help to a struggling starter, while the Yankees' Austin Wells ranks in the 90th percentile with +4 runs of framing value to help guide Cole through tight spots.

With both bullpens fully rested coming out of the All-Star break, the Yankees also hold a massive depth advantage in the late innings. New York has a settled, high-leverage bridge leading to David Bednar, who has compiled 18 saves with a 2.70 ERA. The Dodgers, conversely, are navigating extensive high-leverage injuries, leaving Tanner Scott heavily isolated. Under the warm 82-degree summer sky with a 9 mph wind blowing out to left field, the Yankees' lefty-heavy lineup is perfectly situated to punish Sasaki's vulnerable fastball. Back the Yankees on the moneyline to take the opener.

The pick & result

Published pick: Yankees ML -104
Published odds: -104
Result: Lost
Final score: 2-1

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The read

Injuries noted

Yankees: [NEW] Max Fried (SP) — Elbow (Left): Manager Aaron Boone said Friday that Fried (elbow) will make at least two rehab starts before a decision will be made on his activation from the 15-day injured list, Chris Kirschner of The Athletic reports. (Jul 17 — 0d ago) [KNOWN] Giancarlo Stanton (Designated Hitter) — Calf (Right): Yankees GM Brian Cashman said Thursday that Stanton (calf) has resumed running after receiving a PRP injection, Bryan Hoch of MLB.com reports. (Jul 9 — 8d ago) [NEW] Aaron Judge (RF) — Ribs (Right): Judge (ribs) said Friday that his latest MRI this week showed "some" healing, but he's not yet 100 percent, and one more doctor will review the imaging before determining the next steps in rehab, Bryan Hoch of MLB.com reports. (Jul 17 — 0d ago) [KNOWN] Carlos Rodon (SP) — Elbow (Left): Yankees manager Aaron Boone said Sunday that Rodon (elbow) has had "a few good days of throwing" and could resume throwing off a mound at some point during the upcoming week, Gary Phillips of the New York Daily News reports. (Jul 12 — 4d ago) Dodgers: [NEW] Enrique Hernandez (1B) — Oblique (Left): Hernandez (oblique) will begin a rehab assignment with Triple-A Oklahoma City on Friday, Katie Woo of The Athletic reports. (Jul 17 — 0d ago) [NEW] Tyler Glasnow (SP) — Back (Not Specified): Glasnow (back) threw a bullpen session this past weekend, Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic reports. (Jul 16 — 1d ago) [KNOWN] Gavin Stone (Starting Pitcher) — Shoulder (Right): Dodgers manager Dave Roberts revealed Tuesday that Stone has been unable to ramp up his throwing without feeling soreness in his surgically repaired right shoulder, Cody Snavely of DodgersBeat.com reports. (Jun 3 — 44d ago) [KNOWN] Ben Casparius (Relief Pitcher) — Shoulder (Right): Casparius (shoulder) was moved to the 60-day injured list Monday. (May 18 — 59d ago) [KNOWN] Blake Treinen (RP) — Elbow (Right): The Dodgers announced Thursday that Treinen (elbow) has resumed playing catch, per MLB.com. (Jul 5 — 11d ago) [KNOWN] Blake Snell (SP) — Elbow (Left): Snell (elbow) is expected to kick off a minor-league rehab assignment next Saturday, June 18, Sonja Chen of MLB.com reports. (Jul 11 — 5d ago) [NEW] Will Smith (C) — Neck (Not Specified): Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said recently that while he "certainly" expects Smith (neck) to play again this season, he has "no idea" when it will happen, Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic reports. (Jul 16 — 1d ago) [KNOWN] Edwin Diaz (Relief Pitcher) — Elbow (Right): Diaz (elbow) allowed one hit in a scoreless inning for Single-A Ontario on Saturday, Bill Plunkett of The Orange County Register reports. (Jul 11 — 5d ago)

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

STARTER FORM

Roki Sasaki: 8.31 ERA over his last 3 starts
8.31
Across his last 3 starts (13 IP) he has been tagged for 12 earned runs — a 8.31 ERA with a 1.69 WHIP (1.36 season) against a 5.33 season mark.

BATTER VS ARM

Freddie Freeman vs Gerrit Cole: .346
.346
In 26 career at-bats against Gerrit Cole, Freddie Freeman is 9-for-26 for a 1.068 OPS (2 walks). The two square off again tonight. He enters steady (.652 OPS, L15).

PLATOON EDGE

Freddie Freeman (bats L) hits 3rd against Gerrit Cole (RHP)
.935
Over 243 AB vs. Right, Freddie Freeman owns a .935 OPS versus .704 in 112 AB the other way. He sees RHP Gerrit Cole tonight hitting 3rd, where the platoon side lines up his way.

HEAT CHECK

Ben Rice: 1.382 OPS in Last 15 Days
1.382
That 1.382 OPS spans the last 15 days (36 PA) against a .971 season baseline, a 0.411 swing. He has 29 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.

COOLING OFF

Paul Goldschmidt: .352 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Roki Sasaki
.352
Paul Goldschmidt's .352 OPS over the last 15 days (28 PA) trails his .808 season mark, down 0.456. Tonight he draws RHP Roki Sasaki — his weaker side: a .612 OPS vs RHP across 139 AB.
Teoscar Hernandez: .314 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Gerrit Cole
.314
Teoscar Hernandez's .314 OPS over the last 15 days (33 PA) trails his .706 season mark, down 0.392. Tonight he draws RHP Gerrit Cole — his weaker side: a .694 OPS vs RHP across 167 AB.

BALLPARK

At Yankee Stadium, Gerrit Cole pitches to a 3.22 ERA
3.22
Gerrit Cole at Yankee Stadium: 3.22 ERA over 22.3 innings (4G) — 4.72 on a 26.7-inning baseline elsewhere. Hitters bat .195 off him here.

SITUATIONAL

14 bullpen innings in 3 games for LAD
14
Relievers have absorbed 14 innings over the last 3 games (Landon Knack (3) and Edgardo Henriquez (2.3) the heaviest). NYY's pen has thrown 10 over the same span.

REGRESSION

Mookie Betts: .235 AVG vs .275 xBA
.275
Across 259 plate appearances, Mookie Betts carries a .235 average versus a .275 xBA. His wOBA sits at .308 against a .331 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit above what he has actually posted.

FANTASY PICKUPS

Gerrit Cole
3.48 xERA
Streamer vs LAD — 3.48 xERA · 8.6 K/9 · 1.2 WHIP.

All research from this day

About this analysis

Who made it: Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data: Daily picks first stored July 17, 2026 at 12:10 PM ET.
Odds record: The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, draftkings, caesars, fanatics, betmgm, betrivers.
Accountability: Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.

Props on this game

GARY'S PICK
CODY BELLINGERH+R+RBI OVER 1.5
MLBYankees· -107
LOST · ACTUAL 1
Cody Bellinger has become the engine of the Yankees' offense in the absence of Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton, clearing the 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs threshold in four of his last five games. This matchup is a statistical dream for a left-handed power hitter: Roki Sasaki is currently in a total tailspin, posting an 8.61 ERA in his last five starts and surrendering barrels at an alarming 12.8% rate. Sasaki has been particularly vulnerable to left-handed hitters, giving up 10 of his 19 total home runs to the left side of the plate. Bellinger's fly-ball tendency (indicated by the Dodgers' team average 15.0 launch angle) is perfectly suited for Yankee Stadium's short porch, especially with the wind blowing out toward left-center at 9 mph. Expect Bellinger to capitalize on Sasaki's recent inability to find the zone or limit hard contact.
Cody Bellinger
H+R+RBI over 1.5
-107 · LOST · ACTUAL 1
Yankees
Cody Bellinger has become the engine of the Yankees' offense in the absence of Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton, clearing the 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs threshold in four of his last five games. This matchup is a statistical dream for a left-handed power hitter: Roki Sasaki is currently in a total tailspin, posting an 8.61 ERA in his last five starts and surrendering barrels at an alarming 12.8% rate.
Sasaki has been particularly vulnerable to left-handed hitters, giving up 10 of his 19 total home runs to the left side of the plate. Bellinger's fly-ball tendency (indicated by the Dodgers' team average 15.0 launch angle) is perfectly suited for Yankee Stadium's short porch, especially with the wind blowing out toward left-center at 9 mph.
Expect Bellinger to capitalize on Sasaki's recent inability to find the zone or limit hard contact.

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