Red Sox at Mets
O/U 7.5 · RL Mets -1.5 · Citi Field
Mets ML-152
CONF 78%
LLostFinal 6-2
The read
We’ve got a fascinating clash of styles and situations tonight at Citi Field as the New York Mets host the Boston Red Sox in a matchup that features two starting pitchers on opposite ends of the regression spectrum. Sonny Gray takes the mound for Boston with an impressive 10-1 record, while young flame-pitcher Nolan McLean counters for the home team in this series opener.
My read tonight is all about a massive situational crisis for Boston that the market has not fully accounted for. The Red Sox suffered a legitimate travel disaster today, stranded in Chicago due to mechanical issues, with their flight finally landing at LGA shortly before 5:00 PM ET. Getting from the airport to Citi Field in Friday rush-hour traffic leaves them with barely two hours to unpack, stretch, and take the field without any of their normal pre-game routine or batting practice. This is an extreme fatigue spot for a team that has already been chasing pitches at an alarming rate lately—posting a 34.3% chase rate and a modest 85.6 mph average exit velocity over their last three games. Facing McLean's high-octane 96.1 mph fastball and heavy ground-ball stuff when you're completely rushed is a recipe for an offensive shutdown.
While the Mets are dealing with their own fresh injury news—notably losing Mark Vientos to a hand fracture today and Marcus Semien to a hip injury two days ago—their lineup still features elite plate discipline, sporting a stellar 27.5% chase rate and a .432 xwOBA in their last three games. Furthermore, the starting pitching peripherals are completely flipped from their surface numbers: Gray's 2.61 ERA is heavily masked by a 3.70 xERA, whereas McLean's 3.73 ERA is backed by a very strong 3.41 xERA. With Boston's bullpen also heavily taxed after Aroldis Chapman was forced to pitch on back-to-back days, the Mets are in a prime position to capitalize. I am laying the price on the home side to take advantage of a rushed, road-weary Red Sox team.
Injuries noted
Mets: [NEW] Clay Holmes (SP) — Lower Leg (Right): Holmes (fibula) threw a live batting practice session Friday at Citi Field, Abbey Mastracco of the New York Daily News reports. (Jul 10 — 0d ago) [NEW] Marcus Semien (2B) — Hip (Left): Semien (hip) is unlikely to return before the end of July, Tim Britton and Will Sammon of The Athletic report. (Jul 8 — 2d ago) [KNOWN] Luis Robert Jr. (Center Fielder) — Back (Not Specified): Robert (back) will start a rehab assignment with Triple-A Syracuse on Tuesday, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports. (Jun 29 — 11d ago) [KNOWN] Justin Hagenman (Relief Pitcher) — Ribs (Not Specified): The Mets placed Hagenman on the 60-day injured list Saturday due to a rib fracture. (May 8 — 63d ago) [NEW] Austin Warren (RP) — Forearm (Right): An MRI on Warren's right forearm revealed no ligament damage Wednesday, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports. (Jul 8 — 1d ago) [NEW] Mark Vientos (1B) — Hand (Right): Mets interim manager Andy Green said Thursday that Vientos has been diagnosed with a fractured right hand and will be placed on the 10-day injured list, Chelsea Janes of SNY.tv reports. (Jul 10 — 0d ago) Red Sox: [KNOWN] Roman Anthony (LF) — Finger (Right): Anthony (finger) will visit hand specialist Dr. Gary Lourie in Florida during the upcoming week, Chad Finn of The Boston Globe reports. (Jul 5 — 4d ago) [KNOWN] Isiah Kiner-Falefa (2B) — Forearm (Left): Kiner-Falefa underwent a CT scan on his left forearm Thursday which revealed a stress reaction, MLB.com reports. (Jun 27 — 13d ago) [KNOWN] Marcelo Mayer (2B) — Forearm (Left): The Red Sox placed Mayer on the 10-day injured list Friday with a stress reaction in his left forearm, Mac Cerullo of the Boston Herald reports. (Jun 26 — 14d ago) [KNOWN] Garrett Crochet (Starting Pitcher) — Shoulder (Left): Crochet (shoulder/lat) has not yet been cleared to resume a throwing program following a scheduled re-evaluation Monday, Tim Healey of The Boston Globe reports. (Jun 22 — 17d ago) [KNOWN] Trevor Story (SS) — Abdomen (Not Specified): The Red Sox announced June 28 that Story (sports hernia) is taking part in full baseball activities, MLB.com reports. (Jul 6 — 4d ago) [KNOWN] Nick Sogard (3B) — Oblique (Right): Sogard (oblique) will begin a rehab assignment Thursday, Gabrielle Starr of the Boston Herald reports. (Jun 30 — 9d ago) [KNOWN] Johan Oviedo (Starting Pitcher) — Elbow (Right): Oviedo (elbow) began a throwing program in mid-June but isn't considered close to a return from the 60-day injured list, MLB.com reports. (Jul 6 — 4d ago) [NEW] Connelly Early (SP) — Elbow (Left): Early's second opinion on his injured left elbow confirmed the diagnosis of posterior inflammation, Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com reports. (Jul 10 — 0d ago) [NEW] Ranger Suarez (SP) — Groin (Left): The Red Sox placed Suarez on the 15-day injured list Thursday with a left groin strain. (Jul 9 — 1d ago)
Props on this game
1Juan SotoOVER 1.5 Total Bases Total Bases+113
LActual 1
Juan Soto is in a prime position to exploit a significant regression candidate in Sonny Gray. While Gray's 2.61 ERA is impressive, his xERA of 3.70 suggests he has been fortunate, and a hitter of Soto's caliber is precisely who forces those numbers to normalize.
Soto's home splits are dominant, posting a .349 average and 1.134 OPS at Citi Field this season. The weather conditions further amplify his power floor, with temperatures in the 80s and a 10 mph wind blowing out toward right field—the exact power alley for the left-handed Soto.
Given Gray's tendency to allow more power to lefties (7 of his 10 HR allowed have been to LHB), Soto's current form (4 HR in his last 10 games) makes him the engine of the Mets' offense tonight.
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