Brewers at Pirates
O/U 8 · RL Pirates -1.5 · PNC Park
Brewers ML+110
CONF 82%
Not yet graded
The read
The clouds hang low over the Allegheny River as the Milwaukee Brewers and Pittsburgh Pirates prepare to lock horns at PNC Park under overcast skies and a light breeze blowing out to center field. This divisional battle is priced close, but the sharp money is looking at a massive value mismatch in the details.
On the mound, Braxton Ashcraft looks formidable with his 9-3 record and 3.24 ERA, but a closer look reveals a clear path of attack for the Brewers. Ashcraft struggles significantly against left-handed hitting, allowing a .712 OPS and nine home runs to lefties compared to a stingy .575 OPS and three home runs to right-handers. Milwaukee is built to exploit this exact vulnerability tonight. The Brewers roll out a lineup packed with six left-handed and switch-hitting bats, headlined by the crucial return of Christian Yelich. Yelich—slashing an elite .334 with a 1.011 OPS—adds instant plate discipline and explosive power back to the top of the order, creating a relentless gauntlet of lefties that will force Ashcraft to work out of his comfort zone.
While Brandon Sproat’s 5.13 ERA and 1.37 WHIP require him to navigate some traffic, Milwaukee's elite defense and stellar run prevention are there to clean up any messes. The Brewers are highly efficient in the field, sporting a .988 fielding percentage with just 38 errors on the year, while catcher William Contreras neutralizes any threat of a run game with his stellar 43.6% caught-stealing rate. If this game gets tight late, the bullpen discrepancy is massive. Pittsburgh’s relief corps is heavily taxed and shuffled after optioning key regulars yesterday, whereas Milwaukee has an elite, rested closer in Trevor Megill—boasting 14 saves, a 3.00 ERA, and a 0.97 WHIP—fully primed to shut the door. Getting the division-leading Brewers, who own a dominant 30-16 road record, at a plus-money price against a .500 Pirates squad is an easy decision. Back the Brewers to take the series opener on the moneyline.
Injuries noted
Pirates: [NEW] Oneil Cruz (CF) — Hand (Left): Cruz (hand) has resumed swinging a bat, Alex Stumpf of MLB.com reports. (Jul 7 — 3d ago) [KNOWN] Wilber Dotel (RP) — Lat (Right): Pirates general manager Ben Cherington said Sunday that Dotel (lat) will make another rehab appearance with a minor-league affiliate Tuesday, Colin Beazley of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports. (Jul 6 — 4d ago) [KNOWN] Chris Devenski (RP) — Illness (Not Specified): Devenski (illness) was transferred from the 15-day IL to the 60-day IL on Sunday. (Jun 7 — 33d ago) [NEW] Spencer Horwitz (1B) — Hamstring (Left): Horwitz (hamstring) has begun a running program at the Pirates' spring training complex in Florida, Alex Stumpf of MLB.com reports. (Jul 7 — 3d ago) [KNOWN] Evan Sisk (RP) — Elbow (Left): Sisk was placed on the 15-day injured list Saturday with left elbow inflammation, Colin Beazley of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports. (Jul 4 — 6d ago) [NEW] Endy Rodriguez (C) — Lower Body (Left): Rodriguez (hip) is out of the lineup for Tuesday's game versus Atlanta. (Jul 8 — 2d ago) [NEW] Konnor Griffin (SS) — Finger (Left): The Pirates placed Griffin on the 10-day injured list Tuesday with a torn tendon in his left ring finger, Colin Beazley of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports. (Jul 7 — 3d ago) Brewers: [KNOWN] DL Hall (RP) — Pectoral (Left): Hall (pectoral) has progressed to throwing on flat ground from 60-to-75 feet, Jack Stern of BrewerFanatic.com reports. (Jun 30 — 10d ago) [NEW] Brandon Lockridge (LF) — Knee (Right): The Brewers transferred Lockridge (knee) to the 60-day injured list Tuesday. (Jul 7 — 3d ago) [KNOWN] Coleman Crow (SP) — Forearm (Right): Crow (forearm) will throw a live batting practice session Tuesday, Jack Stern of BrewerFanatic.com reports. (Jun 30 — 10d ago) [KNOWN] Brian Fitzpatrick (RP) — Elbow (Left): Fitzpatrick (elbow) underwent Tommy John surgery over the past week, Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports. (Jul 4 — 5d ago) [KNOWN] Carlos Rodriguez (RP) — Shoulder (Right): Rodriguez (shoulder) struck out a batter and allowed three earned runs on two hits and one walk across 1.1 innings Wednesday in a rehab start for the Brewers' rookie-level Arizona Complex League affiiate. (Jul 2 — 8d ago) [KNOWN] Rob Zastryzny (RP) — Shoulder (Left): Zastryzny (shoulder) will begin a rehab assignment with the Brewers' rookie-level Arizona Complex League affiliate Friday, Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports. (Jul 3 — 7d ago) [KNOWN] Angel Zerpa (Relief Pitcher) — Elbow (Left): The Brewers transferred Zerpa (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Sunday. (May 31 — 40d ago) [KNOWN] Joel Kuhnel (RP) — Shoulder (Right): The Brewers placed Kuhnel on the 15-day injured list Saturday, retroactive to July 3, due to a right shoulder injury. (Jul 4 — 5d ago) [NEW] Brandon Woodruff (SP) — Shoulder (Right): Medical imaging revealed an injury to Woodruff's right anterior shoulder capsule Wednesday, Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports. (Jul 8 — 1d ago) [NEW] David Hamilton (3B) — Hamstring (Left): The Brewers placed Hamilton on the 10-day injured list Tuesday due to a strained left hamstring. (Jul 7 — 3d ago) [NEW] Kyle Harrison (SP) — Elbow (Left): Harrison said after Wednesday's loss to the Cardinals that he has been dealing with soreness on the outside of his elbow over the past few weeks, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports. (Jul 8 — 1d ago)
Props on this game
1Garrett MitchellOVER 0.5 Hits Hits-175
Not yet graded
1. THE PICK: Garrett Mitchell OVER 0.5 Hits (-175) 2. MATCHUP: vs. Braxton Ashcraft (RHP) 3.
THE KEY FACTOR
Mitchell is currently the hottest bat in this matchup, slashing .417 over his last 10 games. He has recorded a hit in 80% of those contests and is coming off a perfect 4-for-4 performance on Thursday. While Ashcraft is a quality starter, he is statistically more vulnerable to left-handed hitters like Mitchell, allowing a .240 average to the left side compared to .227 against righties. 4. PARK/WEATHER CHECK: Overcast, 77°F, Wind 6 mph Out To CF. 5.
VOLUME FLOOR
Mitchell is confirmed in the #2 spot in the lineup, which guarantees high volume (typically 4-5 plate appearances). 6. THE RISK: Mitchell is prone to high-strikeout games, having recorded two 3-strikeout games in his last 10. If Ashcraft’s 10.1 K/9 dominance is on display early, Mitchell may struggle to put the ball in play.
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