Reds at Brewers
O/U 9 · RL Brewers -1.5 · American Family Field
The pick & result
- Published pick
- Reds ML +116
- Published odds
- +116
- Result
- Lost
- Final score
- 3-5
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The read
Welcome to a warm evening in Milwaukee, where the Cincinnati Reds look to turn the tide in the NL Central against the division-leading Brewers at American Family Field. This opening matchup of a crucial four-game series features a pair of left-handers, with Cincinnati's Nick Lodolo taking the mound against Milwaukee's Robert Gasser.
While the public is heavily backing the Brewers following their sweep last week, the sharp money is leaning toward the Reds, and as a lifelong fan, I see exactly why. Before a 108-mph comebacker bruised his wrist and forced an early exit, Lodolo threw four brilliant, scoreless innings against this very Milwaukee lineup. Now fully healed, Lodolo has the high-strikeout ceiling needed to dominate this lineup. Gasser, on the other hand, is a fly-ball pitcher with a low 0.41 GO/AO ratio. This plays directly into the hands of Cincinnati's hitters. Elly De La Cruz has been spectacular against left-handers this season, batting .296 with a .966 OPS, and youngster Sal Stewart provides massive power with his team-leading 15 home runs and 57 RBIs. Even with Eugenio Suarez out of the lineup due to a fresh wrist injury today, the Reds possess more than enough explosive offensive talent to get under Gasser's 92.3 mph fastball in the warm 89°F air.
The primary argument against Cincinnati is Gasser's underlying 3.13 xERA and the Brewers' strong 50-31 record. However, the market is overpaying for a fragile expected stat and past results. Gasser's actual season ERA remains a vulnerable 4.50, and baseball is a game of rapid adjustments. In a heated division rivalry, the Reds are primed for redemption, and getting them at a generous +116 moneyline is a risk well worth taking.
Injuries noted
Brewers: [NEW] Logan Henderson (SP) — Back (Not Specified): Brewers manager Pat Murphy said Monday that he expects Henderson (back) to return before the All-Star break, Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports. (Jun 29 — 0d ago) [KNOWN] DL Hall (RP) — Pectoral (Left): Hall (pectoral) hopes to gain clearance to resume throwing during a checkup Tuesday, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports. (Jun 23 — 6d ago) [KNOWN] Brandon Lockridge (LF) — Knee (Right): Lockridge's timeline for a return has been pushed back to late July after imaging showed a chondral flap in his right patella, Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports. (Jun 23 — 6d ago) [KNOWN] Coleman Crow (SP) — Forearm (Right): Crow (forearm) will throw a bullpen session Tuesday, Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports. (Jun 23 — 6d ago) [KNOWN] Brian Fitzpatrick (RP) — Elbow (Left): Fitzpatrick (elbow) has been diagnosed with a left UCL strain and will get a second opinion to determine if he needs Tommy John surgery, MLB.com reports. (Jun 9 — 19d ago) [KNOWN] Carlos Rodriguez (RP) — Shoulder (Right): The Brewers placed Rodriguez on the 15-day injured list Monday due to a right shoulder impingement, MLB.com reports. (Jun 8 — 20d ago) [KNOWN] Rob Zastryzny (RP) — Shoulder (Left): The Brewers reinstated Zastrzyny (shoulder/ribs) from the 60-day injured list Sunday. (Jun 3 — 26d ago) [KNOWN] Angel Zerpa (Relief Pitcher) — Elbow (Left): The Brewers transferred Zerpa (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Sunday. (May 31 — 29d ago) Reds: [NEW] Eugenio Suarez (DH) — Wrist (Left): Suarez (wrist) is out of the lineup for Monday's game against the Brewers. (Jun 29 — 0d ago) [NEW] Graham Ashcraft (RP) — Elbow (Right): Ashcraft (elbow) will receive another scan on his UCL on Tuesday, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports. (Jun 28 — 1d ago) [NEW] Brandon Williamson (Starting Pitcher) — Shoulder (Left): Williamson (shoulder) injured his finger while working out, and his rehab program has been pushed back by about 10 days as a result, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports. (Jun 28 — 1d ago) [NEW] Blake Dunn (CF) — Elbow (Right): Dunn (elbow) underwent an MRI on Saturday and is likely to return to Cincinnati for more testing, Mark Sheldon of MLB.com reports. (Jun 28 — 1d ago) [NEW] Tony Santillan (RP) — Oblique (Left): Reds manager Terry Francona said Friday that an MRI on Santillan's left oblique showed a significant strain, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports. (Jun 26 — 3d ago) [NEW] Hunter Greene (Starting Pitcher) — Elbow (Right): Greene (elbow) struck out four and allowed one hit and no walks over 6.1 scoreless innings Sunday in a rehab start with Triple-A Louisville. (Jun 29 — 0d ago) [NEW] Emilio Pagan (RP) — Hamstring (Left): Pagan (hamstring) is likely to return from the 15-day injured list this week after tossing scoreless innings in a pair of rehab appearances with Triple-A Louisville over the weekend, Mark Sheldon of MLB.com reports. (Jun 29 — 0d ago) [NEW] Ke'Bryan Hayes (3B) — Back (Not Specified): Manager Terry Francona said that Hayes (back) will face live pitching at the Reds' facility in Arizona on Wednesday or Thursday, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports. (Jun 29 — 0d ago)
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
PLATOON EDGE
Andrew Vaughn (bats R) hits 4th against Nick Lodolo (LHP)
1.284Over 48 AB vs. Left, Andrew Vaughn owns a 1.284 OPS versus .685 in 73 AB the other way. He sees LHP Nick Lodolo tonight hitting 4th, where the platoon side lines up his way.
Spencer Steer (bats R) draws Robert Gasser (LHP), batting 3rd
1.080Spencer Steer carries a 1.080 OPS vs. Left (61 AB) against .638 the other way (216 AB), and faces LHP Robert Gasser from the 3rd spot — a split his blended season line may not reflect.
HEAT CHECK
William Contreras: 1.044 OPS in Last 15 Days
1.044Over the last 15 days (42 PA) he is at a 1.044 OPS, up 0.247 on his .797 season mark. He has 9 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
COOLING OFF
JJ Bleday: .652 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Robert Gasser
.652JJ Bleday's .652 OPS over the last 15 days (40 PA) trails his .858 season mark, down 0.206. Tonight he draws LHP Robert Gasser — his weaker side: a .668 OPS vs LHP across 55 AB.
Brice Turang: .675 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Nick Lodolo
.675Brice Turang's .675 OPS over the last 15 days (51 PA) trails his .809 season mark, down 0.134. Tonight he draws LHP Nick Lodolo — his weaker side: a .528 OPS vs LHP across 86 AB.
FIRST INNING
NRFI watch: quiet first innings on both sides of CIN @ MIL
NRFINeither side has been scoring early — a 1st-inning run in only 2 of 10 for MIL and 3 of 10 for CIN games lately.
RUNNING GAME
Cincinnati Reds like to run — William Contreras (44% caught) is the wrong catcher to test
44% CSWilliam Contreras owns a 44% caught-stealing rate (15 of 34) and Cincinnati Reds run anyway — 0.7 steals a game. Strength on strength on the bases.
BALLPARK
Nick Lodolo's ERA jumps to 6.30 at American Family Field
6.30Nick Lodolo carries a 6.30 ERA over 6 games (30 IP) at American Family Field vs 4.32 across 16.7 innings everywhere else. Hitters bat .296 off him here.
PARK WEATHER
Wind blowing in 14 mph at American Family Field tonight
IN 14Tonight's reading at American Family Field — Partly Cloudy, 89°, wind 14 mph, In From RF. The air is taking runs off the board. The total sits at 9.
STREAK
CIN have lost 4 straight
L44 losses in a row for CIN, a -12 run margin across the slide — they limp in 2-4 over their last 6.
TEAM RECORD
Reds 2-6 in Nick Lodolo's last 8 starts
2-6Reds are 2-6 in Nick Lodolo's last 8 starts this season — losers of his last 4 in a row. He starts tonight.
REGRESSION
Jackson Chourio: .297 AVG vs .256 xBA
.256Across 219 plate appearances, Jackson Chourio carries a .297 average versus a .256 xBA. His wOBA sits at .376 against a .337 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit below what he has actually posted.
Robert Gasser: 4.5 ERA vs 3.13 xERA
3.13Robert Gasser carries a 4.5 ERA against a 3.13 expected ERA (1.37 run gap), so he has been underperforming his contact quality. Opponents hit .228 off him vs a .195 expected (xBA). Most lines price off his season ERA, which may not reflect that gap.
FANTASY PICKUPS
Gary Sanchez
.816 OPSPickup vs Nick Lodolo (6.06 xERA) — .816 OPS, bats 5th.
Brice Turang
.809 OPSPickup vs Nick Lodolo (6.06 xERA) — .809 OPS, bats 2nd.
William Contreras
.797 OPSPickup vs Nick Lodolo (6.06 xERA) — .797 OPS, bats 3rd.
Robert Gasser
3.13 xERAStreamer vs CIN — 3.13 xERA · 9.3 K/9 · 1.27 WHIP.
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Daily picks first stored June 29, 2026 at 12:20 PM ET.
- Odds record
- The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, fanatics, caesars, draftkings, betmgm, betrivers.
- Accountability
- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
Props on this game
2- GARY'S PICKANDREW VAUGHNRBI OVER 0.5
Andrew Vaughn presents a significant statistical mismatch against Nick Lodolo tonight. Vaughn has been elite against left-handed pitching this season, posting a .438 batting average and a 1.284 OPS in 48 at-bats.
Lodolo enters this contest struggling with a 5.59 ERA and a 1.52 WHIP, indicating he frequently allows runners on base. This is particularly relevant for Vaughn, who bats cleanup and is likely to see plate appearances with runners in scoring position, especially with Jackson Chourio (.345 vs LHP) and William Contreras (.382 AVG in last 10 games) hitting ahead of him.
Lodolo has surrendered 7 of his 8 home runs this season to right-handed hitters, further increasing Vaughn's chances for an RBI-producing hit. With temperatures at 89 degrees favoring ball carry, the environment is primed for the Brewers' middle-of-the-order power to produce runs.
- GARY'S PICKWILLIAM CONTRERASH+R+RBI OVER 2.5
William Contreras is currently the engine of the Brewers' offense, entering this series on a massive hot streak where he is hitting .382 over his last 10 games. This prop is a volume play; Contreras bats third in a high-powered lineup and is facing a pitcher in Nick Lodolo who allows a massive amount of traffic (1.52 WHIP).
Lodolo's inability to keep runners off base provides Contreras with multiple paths to clearing 2.5 Hits/Runs/RBIs, whether through multi-hit performances or by driving in the table-setters in front of him. Contreras has cleared this specific line in four of his last eight games, often doing so with significant margin (including an 8 HRR game on June 22).
Given the 89-degree heat and Lodolo's 5.59 ERA, the conditions are ideal for a multi-category contribution from the Brewers' catcher.
Every prop from this day is on the archive page.
Every pick posts before the game and is graded after, in public. My Book on this website lets you tail or fade listed calls and keeps your record separately labeled; Gary is also available as a native iOS app.
Get Gary on the App StoreEvery MLB game this dayThe MLB recordToday's MLB picksEvery sport this day