MLB · Sun, Jun 28 · 2:10 PM

Rockies at Twins

O/U 9 · RL Twins -1.5 · Target Field

GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Rockies· -164

An afternoon rubber match at Target Field brings a fascinating pitching contrast to the mound as the Minnesota Twins host the Colorado Rockies. This series has been a high-scoring affair with 30 combined runs over the first two games, and today’s matchup points to another game where the offenses should dictate the pace, but the pitching and bullpen structure give a clear edge to the home side. The market price of -164 on the Twins moneyline feels entirely justified when looking at how Ryan Feltner matches up with this Minnesota lineup. While Feltner has looked better lately with a 3.67 ERA over his last five starts, his full-season underlying metrics reveal a highly fragile profile. Feltner possesses an xERA of 5.37 compared to his 4.79 ERA, and he has been completely dismantled in afternoon games with an 11.37 ERA. The primary issue for Feltner is his severe platoon split against right-handed hitters, who are batting .283 with an .875 OPS against him. The Twins' lineup configuration aligns directly with this vulnerability, starting six right-handed hitters today, including Byron Buxton, who carries a .958 OPS against righties and an outstanding 1.055 Home OPS. The counterpart for Minnesota, rookie Connor Prielipp, has some concerning surface numbers of his own with a 5.17 ERA and a recent stretch where he allowed a 6.41 ERA. However, the market is overpaying for these fragile surface numbers. Prielipp’s 4.31 xERA indicates his actual process has been much stronger than the results, particularly at Target Field where he holds a 4.18 home ERA. The Rockies do possess a dangerous bat in Hunter Goodman, who has 25 home runs on the season including four in his last six plate appearances, but outside of Goodman, Colorado's lineup will face a rested Minnesota bullpen. After Colorado was forced to burn through eight different relievers in yesterday's game, their pitching staff is highly depleted. Meanwhile, the Twins have their primary high-leverage arms completely fresh, including closer Yoendrys Gómez with a 3.55 ERA and seven saves, who has not thrown in three days. This late-inning disparity gives Minnesota a distinct structural advantage over the final few frames.

The market price of -164 on the Twins moneyline feels entirely justified when looking at how Ryan Feltner matches up with this Minnesota lineup. While Feltner has looked better lately with a 3.67 ERA over his last five starts, his full-season underlying metrics reveal a highly fragile profile. Feltner possesses an xERA of 5.37 compared to his 4.79 ERA, and he has been completely dismantled in afternoon games with an 11.37 ERA. The primary issue for Feltner is his severe platoon split against right-handed hitters, who are batting .283 with an .875 OPS against him. The Twins' lineup configuration aligns directly with this vulnerability, starting six right-handed hitters today, including Byron Buxton, who carries a .958 OPS against righties and an outstanding 1.055 Home OPS.

The counterpart for Minnesota, rookie Connor Prielipp, has some concerning surface numbers of his own with a 5.17 ERA and a recent stretch where he allowed a 6.41 ERA. However, the market is overpaying for these fragile surface numbers. Prielipp’s 4.31 xERA indicates his actual process has been much stronger than the results, particularly at Target Field where he holds a 4.18 home ERA. The Rockies do possess a dangerous bat in Hunter Goodman, who has 25 home runs on the season including four in his last six plate appearances, but outside of Goodman, Colorado's lineup will face a rested Minnesota bullpen. After Colorado was forced to burn through eight different relievers in yesterday's game, their pitching staff is highly depleted. Meanwhile, the Twins have their primary high-leverage arms completely fresh, including closer Yoendrys Gómez with a 3.55 ERA and seven saves, who has not thrown in three days. This late-inning disparity gives Minnesota a distinct structural advantage over the final few frames.

The pick & result

Published pick: Twins ML -164
Published odds: -164
Result: Won
Final score: 2-3

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The read

Injuries noted

Twins: [NEW] Mick Abel (Starting Pitcher) — Elbow (Right): Abel will undergo arthroscopic surgery on his right elbow, Aaron Gleeman of AaronGleeman.com reports. (Jun 24 — 3d ago) [KNOWN] Bailey Ober (SP) — Elbow (Right): Ober (elbow) is scheduled to throw a bullpen session Tuesday of approximately 40 pitches, Dan Hayes of The Athletic reports. (Jun 23 — 5d ago) [KNOWN] Ryan Jeffers (C) — Hand (Left): Jeffers (hand) was spotted taking swings in the batting cage and catching a bullpen session Monday, Theodore Tollefson of ZoneCoverage.com reports. (Jun 23 — 5d ago) [KNOWN] Garrett Acton (Relief Pitcher) — Shoulder (Right): Acton (shoulder) resumed throwing off a mound last week, MLB.com reports. (Jun 18 — 9d ago) [KNOWN] Cole Sands (RP) — Forearm (Right): Sands underwent an MRI on Friday that showed healing in his injured forearm, though inflammation was still present, MLB.com reports. (Jun 16 — 11d ago) Rockies: [KNOWN] Chase Dollander (SP) — Elbow (Right): Dollander underwent an internal brace procedure on his right elbow Monday, Kevin Henry of The Denver Gazette reports. (Jun 23 — 4d ago) [KNOWN] Tanner Gordon (RP) — Hip (Right): Gordon (hip) is slated to make a rehab start with Triple-A Albuquerque on Wednesday, MLB.com reports. (Jun 23 — 4d ago) [KNOWN] Brenton Doyle (CF) — Oblique (Left): Doyle (oblique) will begin a rehab assignment with Triple-A Albuquerque on Tuesday, Kevin Henry of The Denver Gazette reports. (Jun 22 — 5d ago) [KNOWN] Jordan Beck (LF) — Hamstring (Left): Beck (hamstring) will begin a rehab assignment with Triple-A Albuquerque on Tuesday, Kevin Henry of The Denver Gazette reports. (Jun 22 — 5d ago) [KNOWN] Blas Castano (RP) — Pectoral (Right): Castano was called up from Triple-A Albuquerque on Thursday. (Jun 21 — 6d ago) [KNOWN] Welinton Herrera (RP) — Elbow (Left): Rockies manager Warren Schaeffer announced Monday that Herrera (elbow) has been diagnosed with a torn UCL and will miss the remainder of the season, Jack Janes of MLB.com reports. (Jun 2 — 25d ago) [KNOWN] Jose Quintana (SP) — Elbow (Left): The Rockies placed Quintana on the 15-day injured list Monday with a left elbow sprain. (May 28 — 30d ago) [NEW] Jaden Hill (RP) — Shoulder (Right): The Rockies placed Hill on the 15-day injured list Wednesday with right shoulder tendinitis. (Jun 24 — 3d ago)

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

PLATOON EDGE

Trevor Larnach (bats L) hits 1st against Ryan Feltner (RHP)
.861
Over 185 AB vs. Right, Trevor Larnach owns a .861 OPS versus .493 in 27 AB the other way. He sees RHP Ryan Feltner tonight hitting 1st, where the platoon side lines up his way.

HEAT CHECK

TJ Rumfield: 1.152 OPS in Last 15 Days
1.152
The last 15 days sample runs 52 PA: a 1.152 OPS versus .862 for the season, 0.29 above his norm. He has 12 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
Trevor Larnach: 1.188 OPS in Last 15 Days
1.188
That 1.188 OPS spans the last 15 days (40 PA) against a .815 season baseline, a 0.373 swing. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.

HR THREAT

Hunter Goodman
+305
Goodman is currently in the midst of a historic power surge, having hit 4 home runs in his last six plate appearances, including a three-homer game yesterday at this very ballpark. While his day-game splits (.664 OPS) and the 15 mph wind blowing in from right field are significant headwinds, his underlying performance against left-handed pitching (.910 OPS) remains elite.
Byron Buxton
+230
Buxton's home-run-per-game frequency of 34.7% exceeds the 30.3% break-even mark required by his +230 odds. He enters this game with a massive platoon advantage against Rockies starter Ryan Feltner; while Feltner has been effective against lefties, he has been vulnerable to right-handed power, surrendering a .283 average and an .875 OPS to righties.

BALLPARK

At Target Field, Connor Prielipp pitches to a 4.18 ERA
4.18
Connor Prielipp starts at Target Field tonight, where his ERA is 4.18 over 32.3 innings — 6.56 on a 23.3-inning baseline elsewhere. Hitters bat .207 off him here.

PARK WEATHER

Wind blowing in 15 mph at Target Field tonight
IN 15
Conditions at Target Field: Partly Cloudy, 76°, wind 15 mph, In From RF. That wind knocks down anything hit in the air. The total sits at 9.

All research from this day

About this analysis

Who made it: Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data: Daily picks first stored June 28, 2026 at 12:11 PM ET.
Odds record: The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: draftkings, betmgm, fanatics, caesars, betrivers, fanduel.
Accountability: Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.

Props on this game

GARY'S PICK
BYRON BUXTONTOTAL BASES OVER 1.5
MLBTwins· -125
LOST · ACTUAL 0
Byron Buxton is in a premier position to produce tonight given the extreme platoon splits of Rockies starter Ryan Feltner. Feltner has struggled significantly against right-handed hitters this season, surrendering a .283 average and an .875 OPS, which contrasts sharply with his elite numbers against lefties. Buxton is a notorious home specialist at Target Field, where his OPS (1.055) is over 280 points higher than his road mark (.772). Feltner’s low strikeout rate (6.7 K/9) and high hard-hit rate (43%) suggest Buxton will have multiple opportunities to put the ball in play with authority. Batting second in the Twins lineup, Buxton's volume of plate appearances provides a high floor for clearing this total bases line, even with a strong wind blowing in from right field.
Byron Buxton
Total Bases over 1.5
-125 · LOST · ACTUAL 0
Twins
Byron Buxton is in a premier position to produce tonight given the extreme platoon splits of Rockies starter Ryan Feltner. Feltner has struggled significantly against right-handed hitters this season, surrendering a .283 average and an .875 OPS, which contrasts sharply with his elite numbers against lefties.
Buxton is a notorious home specialist at Target Field, where his OPS (1.055) is over 280 points higher than his road mark (.772). Feltner’s low strikeout rate (6.7 K/9) and high hard-hit rate (43%) suggest Buxton will have multiple opportunities to put the ball in play with authority.
Batting second in the Twins lineup, Buxton's volume of plate appearances provides a high floor for clearing this total bases line, even with a strong wind blowing in from right field.
GARY'S PICK
KODY CLEMENSTOTAL BASES UNDER 1.5
MLBTwins· -139
LOST · ACTUAL 4
While the Twins' right-handers should thrive, left-handed hitter Kody Clemens faces a daunting matchup. Ryan Feltner has been dominant against lefties this season, holding them to a meager .176 batting average and a .600 OPS across 85 at-bats. Clemens enters this contest in a significant slump, managing only two hits in his last 15 at-bats and going hitless in three of his last five games. Additionally, the 17 mph wind blowing directly in from right field acts as a natural suppressor for Clemens' primary power alley. Given that Feltner rarely allows lefties to reach base via the hit (only 15 hits in 85 AB), the probability of Clemens recording multiple bases—which would require at least two singles or an extra-base hit against a pitcher who specializes in neutralizing his side of the plate—is significantly lower than the implied odds suggest.
Kody Clemens
Total Bases under 1.5
-139 · LOST · ACTUAL 4
Twins
While the Twins' right-handers should thrive, left-handed hitter Kody Clemens faces a daunting matchup. Ryan Feltner has been dominant against lefties this season, holding them to a meager .176 batting average and a .600 OPS across 85 at-bats.
Clemens enters this contest in a significant slump, managing only two hits in his last 15 at-bats and going hitless in three of his last five games. Additionally, the 17 mph wind blowing directly in from right field acts as a natural suppressor for Clemens' primary power alley.
Given that Feltner rarely allows lefties to reach base via the hit (only 15 hits in 85 AB), the probability of Clemens recording multiple bases—which would require at least two singles or an extra-base hit against a pitcher who specializes in neutralizing his side of the plate—is significantly lower than the implied odds suggest.

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