MLB · Sun, Jun 28 · 3:15 PM

Athletics at Angels

O/U 9.5 · RL Athletics -1.5 · Angel Stadium

GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Athletics· -106

It is a beautiful afternoon at Angel Stadium as the Angels and Athletics clash in a high-stakes rubber match under the Sunday sun. While the Athletics enter today’s matchup highly motivated by their position in a tight divisional race, they are fielding a severely compromised roster that the market has not fully discounted. The Athletics are missing 49 combined home runs of offensive production from their lineup with the absences of Nick Kurtz, who is getting a day off against a left-handed starter, alongside recent injuries to Tyler Soderstrom, Zack Gelof, and Brent Rooker. This leaves the Oakland offense highly dependent on Shea Langeliers and Jonah Heim, who carry an impressive 1.046 OPS and 1.024 OPS against left-handers respectively, but lack any real depth behind them to sustain rallies. This sudden lack of offensive depth is a massive problem against Sam Aldegheri, who has shown exceptional comfort pitching in Anaheim. While Aldegheri struggles on the road with a 13.50 ERA, he has thrived at Angel Stadium with a 3.60 ERA, including two stellar home performances where he limited opponents to just one earned run over 10.1 innings. On the other side, Aaron Civale is in the midst of a severe physical and performance collapse, posting a 9.43 ERA and 1.95 WHIP over his last five starts while managing right shoulder tendinitis. Although Civale has a strong 1.64 ERA in day starts, his extreme platoon vulnerability remains a glaring liability: he has allowed left-handed hitters to batter him for a .327 average and a massive .972 OPS, including nine home runs over 150 at-bats. With an 8 mph wind blowing directly out to right field, left-handed bats like Nolan Schanuel, Wade Meckler, and Josh Lowe are in a prime position to pull the ball in the air against Civale’s fly-ball delivery. The strongest argument against the Angels is their highly vulnerable defense, which sits near the bottom of the league with a .982 fielding percentage and a costly -33 defensive runs saved. In a matchup of two fly-ball pitchers, the Athletics' elite .989 fielding percentage is much more reliable. However, the Angels' defensive specialist Tyler Heineman, who carries a +7 Fielding Run Value, will be behind the plate to help stabilize the rookie Aldegheri. Moreover, the sheer drop-off in the Athletics' hitting power, combined with Civale's shoulder issues, makes the Angels at near-even money the smarter play. I am backing the home team to take advantage of a depleted Oakland lineup and claim the series victory.

This sudden lack of offensive depth is a massive problem against Sam Aldegheri, who has shown exceptional comfort pitching in Anaheim. While Aldegheri struggles on the road with a 13.50 ERA, he has thrived at Angel Stadium with a 3.60 ERA, including two stellar home performances where he limited opponents to just one earned run over 10.1 innings. On the other side, Aaron Civale is in the midst of a severe physical and performance collapse, posting a 9.43 ERA and 1.95 WHIP over his last five starts while managing right shoulder tendinitis. Although Civale has a strong 1.64 ERA in day starts, his extreme platoon vulnerability remains a glaring liability: he has allowed left-handed hitters to batter him for a .327 average and a massive .972 OPS, including nine home runs over 150 at-bats. With an 8 mph wind blowing directly out to right field, left-handed bats like Nolan Schanuel, Wade Meckler, and Josh Lowe are in a prime position to pull the ball in the air against Civale’s fly-ball delivery.

The strongest argument against the Angels is their highly vulnerable defense, which sits near the bottom of the league with a .982 fielding percentage and a costly -33 defensive runs saved. In a matchup of two fly-ball pitchers, the Athletics' elite .989 fielding percentage is much more reliable. However, the Angels' defensive specialist Tyler Heineman, who carries a +7 Fielding Run Value, will be behind the plate to help stabilize the rookie Aldegheri. Moreover, the sheer drop-off in the Athletics' hitting power, combined with Civale's shoulder issues, makes the Angels at near-even money the smarter play. I am backing the home team to take advantage of a depleted Oakland lineup and claim the series victory.

The pick & result

Published pick: Angels ML -106
Published odds: -106
Result: Won
Final score: 1-4

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The read

Injuries noted

Angels: [NEW] Logan Davidson (First Baseman) — Undisclosed (Not Specified): Davidson signed a minor-league contract with Tampa Bay on Monday, which includes an invitation to spring training, Ari Alexander of KPRC 2 Houston reports. (Jun 25 — 2d ago) [NEW] Mike Trout (CF) — Hamstring (Not Specified): Trout (hamstring) took 30 swings and ran at about 50 percent intensity Saturday, Jeff Fletcher of The Orange County Register reports. (Jun 27 — 0d ago) [NEW] Jack Kochanowicz (SP) — Elbow (Right): Kochanowicz's Tommy John surgery on his right elbow was deemed "successful," per MLB.com. (Jun 27 — 1d ago) [NEW] Yusei Kikuchi (SP) — Shoulder (Left): Kikuchi (shoulder) has begun a throwing program, per MLB.com. (Jun 27 — 1d ago) [NEW] Adam Frazier (2B) — Elbow (Right): Frazier (elbow) resumed throwing Wednesday, per MLB.com. (Jun 27 — 1d ago) [NEW] Grayson Rodriguez (SP) — Back (Not Specified): Rodriguez (back) will make a rehab start Sunday, Jeff Fletcher of The Orange County Register reports. (Jun 26 — 1d ago) [KNOWN] Niko Kavadas (First Baseman) — Undisclosed (Not Specified): The Angels reassigned Kavadas to minor-league camp Wednesday. (Jun 21 — 6d ago) [KNOWN] Travis d'Arnaud (C) — Foot (Right): D'Arnaud (foot) is no longer wearing a walking boot, and he played catch on the field Wednesday, Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com reports. (Jun 13 — 15d ago) [KNOWN] Sebastian Rivero (C) — Hand (Left): Rivero was removed from Tuesday's game against the Astros with an apparent left hand injury, Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com reports. (Jun 10 — 17d ago) [KNOWN] Yoan Moncada (3B) — Knee (Right): Moncada will require surgery on his right knee, Francys Romero of BeisbolFR.com reports. (Jun 8 — 19d ago) [KNOWN] Gustavo Campero (Right Fielder) — Hand (Right): The Angels selected Campero's contract from Double-A Rocket City and placed him on the 10-day injured list Saturday due to a fractured hand. (Jun 6 — 21d ago) Athletics: [NEW] Jacob Wilson (SS) — Shoulder (Left): Wilson (shoulder) is out of the lineup for Sunday's game against the Angels. (Jun 28 — 0d ago) [NEW] Tyler Soderstrom (LF) — Hip (Left): Soderstrom (hip) is out of the lineup for Sunday's game against the Angels. (Jun 28 — 0d ago) [NEW] Zack Gelof (3B) — Hand (Right): The Athletics placed Gelof on the 10-day injured list Thursday with a right hand contusion. (Jun 25 — 3d ago) [KNOWN] Mark Leiter Jr. (RP) — Hip (Right): Leiter (hip) began a throwing progression Monday, MLB.com reports. (Jun 24 — 4d ago) [KNOWN] Brent Rooker (DH) — Knee (Left): Rooker (knee) is still not participating in any baseball activities as of Tuesday, MLB.com reports. (Jun 24 — 4d ago) [KNOWN] Denzel Clarke (Center Fielder) — Hamstring (Left): Clarke (hamstring) has started to play catch and has also begun a swinging progression, Martin Gallegos of MLB.com reports. (Jun 23 — 4d ago) [KNOWN] Luis Severino (SP) — Shoulder (Right): The Athletics transferred Severino (shoulder) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Sunday. (Jun 21 — 6d ago) [KNOWN] Brooks Kriske (RP) — Shoulder (Right): Kriske (shoulder) began a throwing progression Thursday, MLB.com reports. (Jun 16 — 12d ago)

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

STARTER FORM

Sam Aldegheri: 8.53 ERA over his last 3 starts
8.53
The last 3 times out: 12.7 innings, 12 earned runs, 14 hits. That 8.53 ERA runs 3.05 over his 5.47 season number.

BULLPEN

Los Angeles Angels pen: 15 relief IP over their last 3 games
15 IP
Los Angeles Angels's bullpen has thrown 15 innings across their last 3 games, with 4 arms working multiple of them. A worked-down pen heading into tonight.

All research from this day

About this analysis

Who made it: Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data: Daily picks first stored June 28, 2026 at 12:11 PM ET.
Odds record: The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, fanatics, caesars, draftkings, betmgm, betrivers.
Accountability: Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.

Props on this game

GARY'S PICK
ZACH NETOTOTAL BASES OVER 1.5
MLBAngels· +101
LOST · ACTUAL 0
Zach Neto is currently the most consistent power threat in the Angels' lineup, having recorded 3 home runs in his last 10 games. Today he faces Aaron Civale, a veteran right-hander whose underlying metrics suggest significant vulnerability. Civale's 47.2% hard-hit rate and 10.2% barrel rate are among the highest in the league, and his 5.3 xERA indicates he has been fortunate to maintain his current 4.88 ERA. Neto is coming off a 2-for-3 performance yesterday that included a home run and a walk, showing he is seeing the ball well. Batting in the leadoff spot, Neto is guaranteed a high volume of opportunities to find the gaps or clear the fence against a pitcher who struggles to limit hard contact. Even if Civale limits walks, Neto's ability to drive the ball makes clearing 1.5 total bases highly achievable. The risk is that Civale uses his veteran command to induce early-count flyouts, but his inability to suppress hard contact this season makes the over the more likely outcome.
Zach Neto
Total Bases over 1.5
+101 · LOST · ACTUAL 0
Angels
Zach Neto is currently the most consistent power threat in the Angels' lineup, having recorded 3 home runs in his last 10 games. Today he faces Aaron Civale, a veteran right-hander whose underlying metrics suggest significant vulnerability. Civale's 47.2% hard-hit rate and 10.2% barrel rate are among the highest in the league, and his 5.3 xERA indicates he has been fortunate to maintain his current 4.88 ERA.
Neto is coming off a 2-for-3 performance yesterday that included a home run and a walk, showing he is seeing the ball well. Batting in the leadoff spot, Neto is guaranteed a high volume of opportunities to find the gaps or clear the fence against a pitcher who struggles to limit hard contact. Even if Civale limits walks, Neto's ability to drive the ball makes clearing 1.5 total bases highly achievable.
The risk is that Civale uses his veteran command to induce early-count flyouts, but his inability to suppress hard contact this season makes the over the more likely outcome.
GARY'S PICK
COLBY THOMASH+R+RBI UNDER 1.5
MLBAthletics· -137
LOST · ACTUAL 2
Colby Thomas is currently mired in a severe slump, recording just one hit in his last five games (H L5: [1, 0, 0, 0, 0]). Today he faces a difficult individual matchup against rookie left-hander Sam Aldegheri, who has demonstrated elite suppression of right-handed hitters. Aldegheri has held righties to a meager .214 batting average and a .649 OPS through his first four starts of 2026. Furthermore, the Athletics' lineup is significantly weakened by the absences of Nick Kurtz (.951 OPS) and Tyler Soderstrom, leaving Thomas without the offensive protection needed to see high-quality pitches in the #5 spot. Without runners consistently on base in front of him and given his current contact struggles, Thomas is unlikely to record the multiple hits or run-production events necessary to clear this line. The primary risk is a high-leverage RBI opportunity if the top of the order reaches, but his recent form suggests he is a prime candidate for the under.
Colby Thomas
H+R+RBI under 1.5
-137 · LOST · ACTUAL 2
Athletics
Colby Thomas is currently mired in a severe slump, recording just one hit in his last five games (H L5: [1, 0, 0, 0, 0]). Today he faces a difficult individual matchup against rookie left-hander Sam Aldegheri, who has demonstrated elite suppression of right-handed hitters.
Aldegheri has held righties to a meager .214 batting average and a .649 OPS through his first four starts of 2026. Furthermore, the Athletics' lineup is significantly weakened by the absences of Nick Kurtz (.951 OPS) and Tyler Soderstrom, leaving Thomas without the offensive protection needed to see high-quality pitches in the #5 spot.
Without runners consistently on base in front of him and given his current contact struggles, Thomas is unlikely to record the multiple hits or run-production events necessary to clear this line. The primary risk is a high-leverage RBI opportunity if the top of the order reaches, but his recent form suggests he is a prime candidate for the under.

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