MLB · Sat, Jun 27 · 4:40 PM

Reds at Pirates

O/U 8 · RL Reds -1.5 · PNC Park

GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Pirates· -110

A thick overcast layer settles over PNC Park as rookie sensation Chase Burns leads the Cincinnati Reds into Pittsburgh for a pivotal divisional clash against the Pirates. Looking at this matchup, the starting pitching disparity is simply too massive to ignore, and the market is pricing this game like a coin flip with the Reds at -110. Chase Burns has been absolute money this season, carrying a 9-1 record with a 2.00 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP. His slider is one of the most devastating pitches in baseball right now, boasting a 52.5% whiff rate and holding opponents to a .271 wOBA. He gives Cincinnati elite length with 16 consecutive starts of at least five innings, which is precisely what the Reds need to mitigate their bullpen concerns today. On the other side of the mound, Jared Jones represents a major vulnerability. Jones has been hammered to the tune of a 5.75 ERA and a 1.52 WHIP, and he is making a risky return today after exiting his June 21 start early due to an elbow contusion from a comebacker. More importantly, Jones has a disastrous reverse-platoon split, giving up a massive .367 batting average and a 1.120 OPS to left-handed hitters this year. Cincinnati is perfectly situated to exploit this weakness with a lineup loaded with left-handed and switch-hitting weapons. Elly De La Cruz is already 2-for-3 with a home run off Jones, while JJ Bleday has a stout .940 OPS against right-handed pitching this season, and Nathaniel Lowe is close behind with a .911 OPS. This left-handed core is built to jump on Jones early and force the Pirates into their middle relief. The primary argument against Cincinnati is their tired bullpen following last night's 6-4 win, compounded by the fresh loss of closer Tony Santillan, who landed on the IL yesterday with an oblique strain. While Gregory Soto and the Pirates' bullpen are admittedly fresher, Pittsburgh's offense is heavily compromised by the fresh hamstring injury to Spencer Horwitz, who went on the IL on June 25. Without Horwitz's .386 on-base percentage to set the table, the Pirates' offense lacks the firepower to consistently threaten Burns. My heart is always with the Reds, but as a sharp bettor, my money is on them today because Burns' elite length will shield our tired relievers while our left-handed bats tee off on a vulnerable, recovering Jones. Back the Reds on the moneyline.

On the other side of the mound, Jared Jones represents a major vulnerability. Jones has been hammered to the tune of a 5.75 ERA and a 1.52 WHIP, and he is making a risky return today after exiting his June 21 start early due to an elbow contusion from a comebacker. More importantly, Jones has a disastrous reverse-platoon split, giving up a massive .367 batting average and a 1.120 OPS to left-handed hitters this year. Cincinnati is perfectly situated to exploit this weakness with a lineup loaded with left-handed and switch-hitting weapons. Elly De La Cruz is already 2-for-3 with a home run off Jones, while JJ Bleday has a stout .940 OPS against right-handed pitching this season, and Nathaniel Lowe is close behind with a .911 OPS. This left-handed core is built to jump on Jones early and force the Pirates into their middle relief.

The primary argument against Cincinnati is their tired bullpen following last night's 6-4 win, compounded by the fresh loss of closer Tony Santillan, who landed on the IL yesterday with an oblique strain. While Gregory Soto and the Pirates' bullpen are admittedly fresher, Pittsburgh's offense is heavily compromised by the fresh hamstring injury to Spencer Horwitz, who went on the IL on June 25. Without Horwitz's .386 on-base percentage to set the table, the Pirates' offense lacks the firepower to consistently threaten Burns. My heart is always with the Reds, but as a sharp bettor, my money is on them today because Burns' elite length will shield our tired relievers while our left-handed bats tee off on a vulnerable, recovering Jones. Back the Reds on the moneyline.

The pick & result

Published pick: Reds ML -110
Published odds: -110
Result: Won
Final score: 9-7

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The read

Injuries noted

Pirates: [NEW] Jared Jones (SP) — Undisclosed (Not Specified): no (Jun 27 — 0d ago) [NEW] Wilber Dotel (RP) — Lat (Right): Dotel (lat) will begin a rehab assignment at Double-A Altoona on Saturday, Kevin Gorman of TribLive.com reports. (Jun 27 — 0d ago) [NEW] Spencer Horwitz (1B) — Hamstring (Left): The Pirates placed Horwitz on the 10-day injured list Thursday due to a left hamstring strain. (Jun 25 — 2d ago) [KNOWN] Oneil Cruz (CF) — Hand (Left): Pirates general manager Ben Cherington said Sunday that Cruz (hand) is facing an estimated recovery timeline of 4-6 weeks, Danny Demilio of PittsburghBaseballNow.com reports. (Jun 14 — 13d ago) [KNOWN] Chris Devenski (RP) — Illness (Not Specified): Devenski (illness) was transferred from the 15-day IL to the 60-day IL on Sunday. (Jun 7 — 20d ago) [KNOWN] Will Robertson (Left Fielder) — Undisclosed (Not Specified): The Orioles reassigned Robertson to minor-league camp Wednesday, Jacob Calvin Meyer of The Baltimore Sun reports. (May 8 — 50d ago) [KNOWN] Liover Peguero (Shortstop) — Undisclosed (Not Specified): The Phillies reassigned Peguero to minor-league camp Sunday. (Jun 18 — 9d ago) Reds: [NEW] Blake Dunn (CF) — Elbow (Right): Dunn (elbow) isn't in the lineup for Saturday's game against the Pirates. (Jun 27 — 0d ago) [NEW] Tony Santillan (RP) — Oblique (Left): Reds manager Terry Francona said Friday that an MRI on Santillan's left oblique showed a significant strain, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports. (Jun 26 — 1d ago) [NEW] Hunter Greene (Starting Pitcher) — Elbow (Right): Reds manager Terry Francona said Wednesday that Greene (elbow) will make one more rehab start with Triple-A Louisville on Sunday, Charlie Clifford of NBC 5 Cincinnati reports. (Jun 24 — 3d ago) [KNOWN] Emilio Pagan (RP) — Hamstring (Left): Pagan (hamstring) will begin a rehab assignment Thursday, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports. (Jun 22 — 4d ago) [KNOWN] Brandon Williamson (Starting Pitcher) — Shoulder (Left): Williamson (shoulder) tossed a bullpen session Saturday, his first since landing on the injured list April 30, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports. (Jun 22 — 5d ago) [KNOWN] Ke'Bryan Hayes (3B) — Back (Not Specified): Hayes (back) has begun hitting at the Reds' training facility in Arizona, MLB.com reports. (Jun 18 — 9d ago) [KNOWN] Graham Ashcraft (RP) — Elbow (Right): Ashcraft (elbow) received a platelet-rich plasma injection Tuesday, MLB.com reports. (Jun 3 — 24d ago)

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

HEAT CHECK

Bryan Reynolds: 1.228 OPS in Last 15 Days
1.228
Over the last 15 days (49 PA) he is at a 1.228 OPS, up 0.346 on his .882 season mark. He has 11 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.

RUNNING GAME

Green light: Cincinnati Reds run, and Endy Rodriguez has caught just 10%
10% CS
Cincinnati Reds steal 0.7 bags a game (59 on the season) and Endy Rodriguez has thrown out 2 of 20 runners (10%). Everything about tonight says they keep running.

STREAK

CIN have lost 4 straight
L4
4 losses in a row for CIN, a -12 run margin across the slide — they limp in 3-5 over their last 8.

TEAM RECORD

Reds 7-1 in Chase Burns's last 8 starts
7-1
Reds are 7-1 in Chase Burns's last 8 starts this season — winners of his last 3 in a row. He starts tonight.

All research from this day

About this analysis

Who made it: Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data: Daily picks first stored June 27, 2026 at 4:01 PM ET.
Odds record: The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, fanatics, caesars, draftkings, betmgm, betrivers.
Accountability: Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.

Props on this game

GARY'S PICK
ELLY DE LA CRUZH+R+RBI OVER 1.5
MLBCincinnati Reds· -135
LOST · ACTUAL 0
The primary edge in this matchup is the extreme platoon liability of Pirates starter Jared Jones. This season, Jones has been historically vulnerable against left-handed hitting, allowing a .367 batting average and a 1.120 OPS to lefties—compared to a stifling .152 average against right-handers. As a switch-hitter, Elly De La Cruz will bat from the left side today, placing him in the optimal position to exploit this split. De La Cruz enters this game with significant momentum after a 2-for-4 performance yesterday that included a home run and 3 RBIs. Batting leadoff ensures he will see the maximum possible plate appearances, providing multiple opportunities to clear this 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs line against a pitcher who has struggled to find answers for left-handed bats all season.
Elly De La Cruz
H+R+RBI over 1.5
-135 · LOST · ACTUAL 0
Cincinnati Reds
The primary edge in this matchup is the extreme platoon liability of Pirates starter Jared Jones. This season, Jones has been historically vulnerable against left-handed hitting, allowing a .367 batting average and a 1.120 OPS to lefties—compared to a stifling .152 average against right-handers.
As a switch-hitter, Elly De La Cruz will bat from the left side today, placing him in the optimal position to exploit this split. De La Cruz enters this game with significant momentum after a 2-for-4 performance yesterday that included a home run and 3 RBIs.
Batting leadoff ensures he will see the maximum possible plate appearances, providing multiple opportunities to clear this 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs line against a pitcher who has struggled to find answers for left-handed bats all season.
GARY'S PICK
JJ BLEDAYHITS OVER 0.5
MLBCincinnati Reds· -155
✓ CASHED · ACTUAL 1
Similar to the De La Cruz pick, JJ Bleday is positioned to capitalize on Jared Jones' inability to retire left-handed hitters. While Bleday had struggled recently, he definitively snapped that skid in the series opener, recording two hits including a home run. Bleday's season-long profile shows he is a much more dangerous hitter against righties, posting a .940 OPS and 10 of his 13 home runs against RHP. Batting third in the Reds' lineup, he will benefit from having De La Cruz on base ahead of him, forcing Jones to challenge him in the zone. Given Jones' .367 average allowed to lefties and Bleday's demonstrated power and contact quality against right-handed arms, he is a strong candidate to record at least one hit tonight.
JJ Bleday
Hits over 0.5
-155 · CASHED · ACTUAL 1
Cincinnati Reds
Similar to the De La Cruz pick, JJ Bleday is positioned to capitalize on Jared Jones' inability to retire left-handed hitters. While Bleday had struggled recently, he definitively snapped that skid in the series opener, recording two hits including a home run.
Bleday's season-long profile shows he is a much more dangerous hitter against righties, posting a .940 OPS and 10 of his 13 home runs against RHP. Batting third in the Reds' lineup, he will benefit from having De La Cruz on base ahead of him, forcing Jones to challenge him in the zone.
Given Jones' .367 average allowed to lefties and Bleday's demonstrated power and contact quality against right-handed arms, he is a strong candidate to record at least one hit tonight.

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