Nationals at Orioles
O/U 9 · RL Orioles -1.5 · Oriole Park at Camden Yards
The pick & result
- Published pick
- Nationals ML -104
- Published odds
- -104
- Result
- Won
- Final score
- 4-3
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The read
Under the overcast night skies at Oriole Park at Camden Yards, the Beltway Series heats up as the Washington Nationals look to snap a four-game skid against the Baltimore Orioles. At this virtual pick'em price, the value lies squarely with the road underdogs. The market is overpaying for a fragile number in Baltimore starter Brandon Young. While Young carries a shiny 3.07 ERA, his underlying 4.25 expected ERA (xERA) and 1.26 WHIP suggest his success is built on volatile ground. In contrast, Washington starter Foster Griffin has been in elite form. Over his last five starts, Griffin has pitched to a 2.15 ERA and 0.92 WHIP, walking only four batters in 29.1 innings. While Griffin also has a gap between his 3.15 ERA and 4.05 xERA, his elite 1.06 WHIP and pristine command make his production far more sustainable than Young’s high-wire act.
The strongest argument against backing the Nationals is Baltimore's right-handed-heavy lineup, which is designed to exploit Griffin's .714 OPS allowed to righties. However, the core of Baltimore's order has struggled against left-handed pitching this season, with Pete Alonso carrying a .652 OPS in 87 at-bats and Blaze Alexander at a .687 OPS. If Griffin maintains his elite control, he has the raw stuff to suppress these bats. On the other side, Young's success relies on holding lefties down, but he faces a tough challenge against Washington’s premier left-handed hitters. CJ Abrams boasts a .928 OPS against right-handed pitchers in 206 at-bats, and James Wood carries a .956 OPS in 205 at-bats. These star bats give Washington the upper hand in creating high-quality contact against Young’s 41.7% hard-hit rate.
The final piece of the puzzle is Washington’s road resilience. Despite their recent slump, the Nationals have been outstanding away from home this season, posting a 24-17 road record. Baltimore is motivated to stay in the postseason race, but their bullpen advantages may be rendered moot if the Nationals' offense can exploit Young's fragile command early. Foster Griffin’s ability to limit walks and pitch deep should help Washington bypass their taxed middle relief and hand a lead directly to their rested late-inning weapons. Trust the Nationals to break their slide and secure a road win behind their rookie ace.
Injuries noted
Orioles: [KNOWN] Adley Rutschman (C) — Concussion (Not Specified): The Orioles placed Rutschman on the 7-day injured list Saturday after he was diagnosed with a concussion, Rich Dubroff of BaltimoreBaseball.com reports. (Jun 20 — 6d ago) [KNOWN] Chris Bassitt (SP) — Back (Not Specified): Bassitt (back) received a facet injection to his lower back Friday, and he's set to begin his throwing progression, Jake Rill of MLB.com reports. (Jun 16 — 10d ago) [KNOWN] Yaramil Hiraldo (Relief Pitcher) — Shoulder (Right): Hiraldo (shoulder) will throw live batting practice Friday, Jake Rill of MLB.com reports. (Jun 16 — 10d ago) [KNOWN] Ryan Mountcastle (First Baseman) — Foot (Left): Mountcastle (foot) did some running Saturday, Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com reports. (Jun 13 — 13d ago) [KNOWN] Zach Eflin (Starting Pitcher) — Elbow (Right): Eflin underwent Tommy John surgery on his right elbow Wednesday, Andy Kostka of TheBaltimoreBanner.com reports. (May 8 — 50d ago) [NEW] Dylan Beavers (RF) — Oblique (Right): Beavers (oblique) is in Baltimore, before Saturday's matchup against Washington, and is feeling good after six rehab games, Jake Rill of MLB.com reports. (Jun 27 — 0d ago) [NEW] Dean Kremer (Starting Pitcher) — Quadriceps (Right): Kremer (quadriceps) made his second rehab start for Triple-A Norfolk on Friday, giving up two hits and one walk in 6.2 scoreless innings. He struck out eight. (Jun 27 — 0d ago) Nationals: [KNOWN] Jake Irvin (SP) — Shoulder (Right): Irvin (shoulder) will throw a bullpen session Tuesday, Kyle Williams of TheBanner.com reports. (Jun 22 — 5d ago) [KNOWN] Ken Waldichuk (Starting Pitcher) — Elbow (Left): Waldichuk (elbow) underwent Tommy John surgery and an internal brace procedure April 21 and is hopeful to return to game action at some point early in the 2027 season, Mark Zuckerman of MASNSports.com reports. (Jun 11 — 16d ago) [KNOWN] Josiah Gray (Starting Pitcher) — Elbow (Right): Gray (elbow) has resumed a throwing program, Mark Zuckerman of NatsJournal.com reports. (May 8 — 50d ago)
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
STARTER FORM
Foster Griffin: 1.40 ERA over his last 3 starts
1.40The last 3 times out: 19.3 innings, 3 earned runs, 20 Ks. That 1.40 ERA sits 1.76 runs under his 3.15 season number.
PLATOON EDGE
Coby Mayo (bats R) gets a LHP from the 4th spot
1.124Coby Mayo's vs. Left line (1.124 OPS, 58 AB) sits well above his .455 mark the other way (147 AB). Tonight's starter Foster Griffin throws LHP, the hand he hits best.
HEAT CHECK
Nasim Nunez: 1.027 OPS in Last 15 Days
1.027The last 15 days sample runs 39 PA: a 1.027 OPS versus .603 for the season, 0.424 above his norm. His total-bases line tonight: 0.5.
HR THREAT
Pete Alonso
+390This pick focuses on a massive platoon vulnerability for Nationals starter Foster Griffin. While Griffin has been efficient, his damage profile is extremely one-sided; he has surrendered 12 home runs to right-handed batters in 239 at-bats, compared to just 4 in 103 at-bats against lefties.
SITUATIONAL
WSH's bullpen has covered 12.3 innings over the last 3 games
12.3That is 12.3 relief innings in 3 games, led by Miles Mikolas (3.3) and Brad Lord (2.7). BAL's pen has thrown 11.3 over the same span.
TEAM RECORD
Orioles 7-1 in Brandon Young's last 8 starts
7-1Orioles are 7-1 in Brandon Young's last 8 starts this season. He starts tonight.
Nationals 6-2 in Foster Griffin's last 8 starts
6-2Nationals are 6-2 in Foster Griffin's last 8 starts this season. He starts tonight.
FANTASY PICKUPS
Foster Griffin
4.05 xERAStreamer vs BAL — 4.05 xERA · 8.8 K/9 · 1.06 WHIP.
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Daily picks first stored June 27, 2026 at 4:01 PM ET.
- Odds record
- The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, fanatics, caesars, draftkings, betmgm, betrivers.
- Accountability
- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
Props on this game
4- GARY'S PICKJAMES WOODHITS UNDER 0.5
James Wood is currently mired in a severe rookie slump, struggling with timing as evidenced by his staggering 50% strikeout rate over his last 10 games. Tonight, he faces a difficult platoon disadvantage against Baltimore's Brandon Young, who has been elite at neutralizing left-handed hitters this season. Wood is a left-handed batter who has struggled to put the ball in play recently, and while his leadoff role ensures he will see 4-5 plate appearances, his current form and the matchup suggest he will continue to struggle. Young's ability to limit contact against lefties aligns perfectly with Wood's high-whiff tendencies, making the under on a single hit a high-value play given the significant plus-money return.
- GARY'S PICKGUNNAR HENDERSONHITS UNDER 0.5
Gunnar Henderson faces an incredibly difficult task tonight against Foster Griffin, who has emerged as one of the most dominant 'lefty killers' in the league. Griffin's ability to hold left-handed hitters to a meager .165 batting average is a nightmare matchup for Henderson, who has been struggling with his own consistency, posting a sub-.200 average over his last 10 contests. Griffin leads all rookie starters in ERA (3.15) and WHIP (1.06) by focusing on efficiency and inducing weak contact, particularly against hitters from the left side. While Henderson remains an elite talent, his recent trend of hitless performances (0-for-9 in his last two outings) and the specific platoon difficulty of this matchup make the plus-money on him going hitless again tonight an excellent mathematical edge.
- THE LONG SHOTPETE ALONSOHR OVER 0.5
This pick focuses on a massive platoon vulnerability for Nationals starter Foster Griffin. While Griffin has been efficient, his damage profile is extremely one-sided; he has surrendered 12 home runs to right-handed batters in 239 at-bats, compared to just 4 in 103 at-bats against lefties.
Pete Alonso is the Orioles' primary right-handed power source and historically dominates this franchise with 28 career home runs. Despite his high recent strikeout rate, the situational matchup against a lefty who allows an 11% barrel rate and struggles to keep the ball in the park against righties provides significant value at +390.
The 80-degree temperature at Camden Yards further supports ball carry for a power hitter like Alonso.
- THE LONG SHOTJAMES WOODHR OVER 0.5
While James Wood is currently in a 5-for-42 slump, this is a prime 'buy-low' spot based on underlying pitching metrics. Orioles starter Brandon Young is a significant regression candidate; his 4.25 xERA is more than a full run higher than his actual ERA, and he allows a high 41.7% hard-hit rate. Wood's power is concentrated against right-handed pitching (15 of his 20 HRs this season), and Young's fly-ball tendency (0.91 GO/AO) creates a favorable environment for a high-exit-velocity hitter to break out. At +350, we are betting on Wood's season-long elite power profile (20 HR in 83 games) over a small-sample slump, especially against a pitcher whose luck is due to turn.
Every prop from this day is on the archive page.
Every pick posts before the game and is graded after, in public. My Book on this website lets you tail or fade listed calls and keeps your record separately labeled; Gary is also available as a native iOS app.
Get Gary on the App StoreEvery MLB game this dayThe MLB recordToday's MLB picksEvery sport this day