MLB · Fri, Jun 26 · 6:40 PM

Reds at Pirates

O/U 10.5 · RL Pirates -1.5 · PNC Park

GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Reds· -190

The lights are bright at PNC Park tonight as the Pittsburgh Pirates host the Cincinnati Reds in a classic National League Central showdown. While my heart will always pull for the Redlegs, thirty years in this business has taught me that sentimentality is the quickest way to go broke, and tonight the numbers point toward Pittsburgh. The market is overpaying for a fragile number when it comes to Andrew Abbott. His 3.83 ERA looks decent on the surface, but his 4.84 xERA, a bloated 1.42 WHIP, 39 walks, and 64 strikeouts over 84.2 innings suggest he has been incredibly fortunate. Facing a Pirates lineup averaging 5.0 runs per game with a .257 team batting average and a .746 team OPS, Abbott's high-walk, fly-ball-heavy profile is a ticking time bomb. Conversely, Paul Skenes is a flat-out superstar. He comes in with a 2.86 ERA, a 2.60 xERA, and a microscopic 0.93 WHIP with 107 strikeouts and only 18 walks over 88.0 innings. The strongest argument against backing the Pirates is Skenes' baffling run-support drought, which has seen Pittsburgh lose seven consecutive starts of his. But sharp bettors know that is pure variance, not a reflection of his elite pitching quality—especially under the lights, where Skenes is historically dominant with a 1.26 ERA at night. A Cincinnati offense averaging 4.2 runs per game with a .226 batting average and a .699 team OPS does not have the firepower to exploit him, especially on the road where superstar Elly De La Cruz's numbers fall off to a .691 OPS compared to his .995 home mark, while Pittsburgh's Bryan Reynolds thrives at PNC Park with a .338 home average and a 1.026 home OPS. Pittsburgh also dominates the head-to-head matchup, winning five of six games this season while outscoring Cincinnati 43 to 16. Bryan Reynolds is a matchup nightmare for left-handers, boasting a .326 average and a .997 OPS against southpaws, making him the perfect weapon against Abbott. With rookie shortstop Konnor Griffin returning to the leadoff spot and closer Gregory Soto (3.24 ERA, 0.99 WHIP) ready to lock down the late innings, the Pirates are fully positioned to dominate, while the Reds rely on Pierce Johnson (3.18 ERA, 1.19 WHIP) and Sam Moll (3.82 ERA, 1.30 WHIP) in a heavily depleted bullpen. It hurts my Cincinnati soul, but the smart play is backing Pittsburgh on the moneyline.

Conversely, Paul Skenes is a flat-out superstar. He comes in with a 2.86 ERA, a 2.60 xERA, and a microscopic 0.93 WHIP with 107 strikeouts and only 18 walks over 88.0 innings. The strongest argument against backing the Pirates is Skenes' baffling run-support drought, which has seen Pittsburgh lose seven consecutive starts of his. But sharp bettors know that is pure variance, not a reflection of his elite pitching quality—especially under the lights, where Skenes is historically dominant with a 1.26 ERA at night. A Cincinnati offense averaging 4.2 runs per game with a .226 batting average and a .699 team OPS does not have the firepower to exploit him, especially on the road where superstar Elly De La Cruz's numbers fall off to a .691 OPS compared to his .995 home mark, while Pittsburgh's Bryan Reynolds thrives at PNC Park with a .338 home average and a 1.026 home OPS.

Pittsburgh also dominates the head-to-head matchup, winning five of six games this season while outscoring Cincinnati 43 to 16. Bryan Reynolds is a matchup nightmare for left-handers, boasting a .326 average and a .997 OPS against southpaws, making him the perfect weapon against Abbott. With rookie shortstop Konnor Griffin returning to the leadoff spot and closer Gregory Soto (3.24 ERA, 0.99 WHIP) ready to lock down the late innings, the Pirates are fully positioned to dominate, while the Reds rely on Pierce Johnson (3.18 ERA, 1.19 WHIP) and Sam Moll (3.82 ERA, 1.30 WHIP) in a heavily depleted bullpen. It hurts my Cincinnati soul, but the smart play is backing Pittsburgh on the moneyline.

The pick & result

Published pick: Pirates ML -190
Published odds: -190
Result: Lost
Final score: 6-4

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The read

Injuries noted

Pirates: [NEW] Jared Jones (SP) — Undisclosed (Not Specified): no (Jun 26 — 0d ago) [NEW] Spencer Horwitz (1B) — Hamstring (Left): The Pirates placed Horwitz on the 10-day injured list Thursday due to a left hamstring strain. (Jun 25 — 1d ago) [KNOWN] Wilber Dotel (RP) — Lat (Right): Dotel (lat) tossed a bullpen session Saturday, MLB.com reports. (Jun 21 — 4d ago) [KNOWN] Oneil Cruz (CF) — Hand (Left): Pirates general manager Ben Cherington said Sunday that Cruz (hand) is facing an estimated recovery timeline of 4-6 weeks, Danny Demilio of PittsburghBaseballNow.com reports. (Jun 14 — 12d ago) [KNOWN] Will Robertson (Left Fielder) — Undisclosed (Not Specified): The Orioles reassigned Robertson to minor-league camp Wednesday, Jacob Calvin Meyer of The Baltimore Sun reports. (May 8 — 49d ago) [KNOWN] Chris Devenski (RP) — Illness (Not Specified): Devenski (illness) was transferred from the 15-day IL to the 60-day IL on Sunday. (Jun 7 — 19d ago) [KNOWN] Liover Peguero (Shortstop) — Undisclosed (Not Specified): The Phillies reassigned Peguero to minor-league camp Sunday. (Jun 18 — 8d ago) Reds: [NEW] Tony Santillan (RP) — Oblique (Left): Reds manager Terry Francona said Friday that an MRI on Santillan's left oblique showed a significant strain, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports. (Jun 26 — 0d ago) [NEW] Nick Lodolo (SP) — Wrist (Left): Reds manager Terry Francona said that Lodolo (wrist) "showed up pretty good" when he reported to the ballpark Wednesday, Charlie Clifford of NBC 5 Cincinnati reports. (Jun 24 — 2d ago) [NEW] Hunter Greene (Starting Pitcher) — Elbow (Right): Reds manager Terry Francona said Wednesday that Greene (elbow) will make one more rehab start with Triple-A Louisville on Sunday, Charlie Clifford of NBC 5 Cincinnati reports. (Jun 24 — 2d ago) [NEW] Emilio Pagan (RP) — Hamstring (Left): Pagan (hamstring) will begin a rehab assignment Thursday, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports. (Jun 22 — 3d ago) [KNOWN] Brandon Williamson (Starting Pitcher) — Shoulder (Left): Williamson (shoulder) tossed a bullpen session Saturday, his first since landing on the injured list April 30, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports. (Jun 22 — 4d ago) [KNOWN] Ke'Bryan Hayes (3B) — Back (Not Specified): Hayes (back) has begun hitting at the Reds' training facility in Arizona, MLB.com reports. (Jun 18 — 8d ago) [KNOWN] Graham Ashcraft (RP) — Elbow (Right): Ashcraft (elbow) received a platelet-rich plasma injection Tuesday, MLB.com reports. (Jun 3 — 23d ago)

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

PLATOON EDGE

JJ Bleday (bats L) draws Paul Skenes (RHP), batting 3rd
.949
JJ Bleday carries a .949 OPS vs. Right (132 AB) against .680 the other way (53 AB), and faces RHP Paul Skenes from the 3rd spot — a split his blended season line may not reflect.

HEAT CHECK

Bryan Reynolds: 1.228 OPS in Last 15 Days
1.228
Over the last 15 days (49 PA) he is at a 1.228 OPS, up 0.338 on his .890 season mark. He has 11 home runs on the season.

All research from this day

About this analysis

Who made it: Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data: Daily picks first stored June 26, 2026 at 1:34 PM ET.
Odds record: The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, fanatics, betrivers, caesars, draftkings, betmgm.
Accountability: Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.

Props on this game

GARY'S PICK
ELLY DE LA CRUZTOTAL BASES UNDER 1.5
MLBReds· -170
✓ CASHED · ACTUAL 0
This pick is a play on the significant mismatch between a slumping high-strikeout hitter and the league's most dominant starting pitcher. Elly De La Cruz is currently hitting just .205 over his last 10 games and has struggled with consistency, recording zero hits in four of those contests. He faces Paul Skenes, the reigning Cy Young winner who has been nearly untouchable with a 0.93 WHIP and 107 strikeouts in 88 innings. Skenes' ability to miss bats (10.9 K/9) and limit hard contact (6% Barrel% allowed) matches up perfectly against De La Cruz's high-variance profile. Skenes is underperforming his expected metrics (2.86 ERA vs 2.60 xERA), suggesting he is even better than the surface numbers show. In a game where the Pirates' ace is expected to dominate a 'spiraling' Reds offense, De La Cruz is unlikely to find the extra-base hits or multiple hits needed to clear this total.
Elly De La Cruz
Total Bases under 1.5
-170 · CASHED · ACTUAL 0
Reds
This pick is a play on the significant mismatch between a slumping high-strikeout hitter and the league's most dominant starting pitcher. Elly De La Cruz is currently hitting just .205 over his last 10 games and has struggled with consistency, recording zero hits in four of those contests.
He faces Paul Skenes, the reigning Cy Young winner who has been nearly untouchable with a 0.93 WHIP and 107 strikeouts in 88 innings. Skenes' ability to miss bats (10.9 K/9) and limit hard contact (6% Barrel% allowed) matches up perfectly against De La Cruz's high-variance profile.
Skenes is underperforming his expected metrics (2.86 ERA vs 2.60 xERA), suggesting he is even better than the surface numbers show. In a game where the Pirates' ace is expected to dominate a 'spiraling' Reds offense, De La Cruz is unlikely to find the extra-base hits or multiple hits needed to clear this total.
GARY'S PICK
BRYAN REYNOLDSSINGLES OVER 0.5
MLBPirates· -125
✓ CASHED · ACTUAL 1
Bryan Reynolds is the hottest hitter in the Pirates' lineup, entering this contest with a .472 average over his last 10 games and hits in 10 consecutive outings. He faces Andrew Abbott, a left-handed starter whose surface stats (3.83 ERA) mask significant underlying struggles, evidenced by a 4.84 xERA and a high 1.42 WHIP. Abbott's inability to keep runners off the bases provides ample opportunity for Reynolds, a switch-hitter who can neutralize the platoon advantage. While Reynolds has shown increased power recently (4 HR in L10), he remains a disciplined contact hitter who has recorded 9 singles in his last 10 games. Against a fly-ball-heavy pitcher like Abbott (0.67 GO/AO) who frequently works into deep counts and allows baserunners, Reynolds is well-positioned to continue his hitting streak with at least one base knock that stays in the park.
Bryan Reynolds
Singles over 0.5
-125 · CASHED · ACTUAL 1
Pirates
Bryan Reynolds is the hottest hitter in the Pirates' lineup, entering this contest with a .472 average over his last 10 games and hits in 10 consecutive outings. He faces Andrew Abbott, a left-handed starter whose surface stats (3.83 ERA) mask significant underlying struggles, evidenced by a 4.84 xERA and a high 1.42 WHIP.
Abbott's inability to keep runners off the bases provides ample opportunity for Reynolds, a switch-hitter who can neutralize the platoon advantage. While Reynolds has shown increased power recently (4 HR in L10), he remains a disciplined contact hitter who has recorded 9 singles in his last 10 games.
Against a fly-ball-heavy pitcher like Abbott (0.67 GO/AO) who frequently works into deep counts and allows baserunners, Reynolds is well-positioned to continue his hitting streak with at least one base knock that stays in the park.

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