MLB · Fri, Jun 26 · 7:10 PM

Phillies at Mets

O/U 6.5 · RL Phillies -1.5 · Citi Field

GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Mets· -156

A classic NL East rivalry resumes at Citi Field under warm, partly cloudy skies with the wind blowing out to center field at 8 mph, but the real storm is inside the Queens clubhouse. The Mets are in complete disarray, entering tonight on a six-game losing streak and making headlines today by firing manager Carlos Mendoza. While Andy Green makes his interim managerial debut in hopes of providing a sudden emotional spark, the Mets face a monumental task in Zack Wheeler, who has been absolutely dominant this season with a 7-1 record and a 2.11 ERA. The starting pitching matchup is an extreme mismatch. Wheeler has a 0.88 WHIP over 68.1 innings and has held left-handed hitters to a meager .188 batting average, which perfectly neutralizes the Mets' lefty-heavy lineup featuring Carson Benge, Jared Young, and A.J. Ewing. In contrast, the Mets are sending rookie left-hander Zach Thornton to the mound for just his second career start. In Thornton’s lone outing, he surrendered an 8.31 ERA, a 57.1% hard-hit rate, and allowed a .300 batting average to right-handed hitters. The market is pricing the Phillies at -156, which feels cheap because of Wheeler's 3.01 xERA compared to his 2.11 actual ERA. But even with minor regression factored into the price, Wheeler's floor is miles above Thornton's 8.41 xERA. The Phillies' offense is also firing on all cylinders, coming off a historic series where they hit a go-ahead home run in the ninth inning of three straight games. They possess a tailored lineup to exploit Thornton, led by Kyle Schwarber, who has crushed lefties to the tune of a 1.006 OPS, and right-handed bats like Trea Turner and Alec Bohm. While the Mets might get a temporary emotional lift from their managerial change and have Juan Soto in the lineup, they are defensively vulnerable, having committed 53 errors this season compared to the Phillies' 39. The Phillies' defense, combined with their clear advantage on the mound and high-octane lineup, makes them the sharp play tonight at -156.

The starting pitching matchup is an extreme mismatch. Wheeler has a 0.88 WHIP over 68.1 innings and has held left-handed hitters to a meager .188 batting average, which perfectly neutralizes the Mets' lefty-heavy lineup featuring Carson Benge, Jared Young, and A.J. Ewing. In contrast, the Mets are sending rookie left-hander Zach Thornton to the mound for just his second career start. In Thornton’s lone outing, he surrendered an 8.31 ERA, a 57.1% hard-hit rate, and allowed a .300 batting average to right-handed hitters. The market is pricing the Phillies at -156, which feels cheap because of Wheeler's 3.01 xERA compared to his 2.11 actual ERA. But even with minor regression factored into the price, Wheeler's floor is miles above Thornton's 8.41 xERA.

The Phillies' offense is also firing on all cylinders, coming off a historic series where they hit a go-ahead home run in the ninth inning of three straight games. They possess a tailored lineup to exploit Thornton, led by Kyle Schwarber, who has crushed lefties to the tune of a 1.006 OPS, and right-handed bats like Trea Turner and Alec Bohm. While the Mets might get a temporary emotional lift from their managerial change and have Juan Soto in the lineup, they are defensively vulnerable, having committed 53 errors this season compared to the Phillies' 39. The Phillies' defense, combined with their clear advantage on the mound and high-octane lineup, makes them the sharp play tonight at -156.

The pick & result

Published pick: Phillies ML -156
Published odds: -156
Result: Won
Final score: 2-1

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The read

Injuries noted

Mets: [NEW] Marcus Semien (2B) — Hip (Left): Semien went 2-for-4 with a triple and two RBI in Thursday's win over the Phillies. (Jun 25 — 1d ago) [NEW] Luis Robert Jr. (Center Fielder) — Back (Not Specified): Mets manager Carlos Mendoza said that Robert "looked normal" while taking a full session of batting practice in the cages Tuesday, Max Goodman of NJ.com reports. (Jun 23 — 3d ago) [NEW] Christian Scott (SP) — Hip (Right): Manager Carlos Mendoza said Tuesday that Scott (hip) is expected to be reinstated from the 15-day injured list to start this weekend against the Phillies, Andrew Tredinnick of The Bergen Record reports. (Jun 23 — 3d ago) [KNOWN] Christian Arroyo (Second Baseman) — Undisclosed (Not Specified): The Mets re-signed Arroyo to a minor-league contract Tuesday. (Jun 17 — 9d ago) [KNOWN] Jorge Polanco (Second Baseman) — Achilles (Left): An MRI on Polanco's left ankle/Achilles tendon came back negative Tuesday, Andrew Tredinnick of The Bergen Record reports. (Jun 15 — 11d ago) [KNOWN] Brandon Waddell (Relief Pitcher) — Undisclosed (Not Specified): Waddell (shoulder) picked up the win after allowing three runs on four hits while striking out two across three innings during Saturday's game against Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes Barre. (May 31 — 25d ago) [KNOWN] Clay Holmes (SP) — Leg (Right): The Mets transferred Holmes (fibula) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Tuesday. (May 19 — 38d ago) [KNOWN] Kevin Herget (Relief Pitcher) — Undisclosed (Not Specified): Herget signed a minor league contract that includes an invitation to spring training with the Mets on Thursday, Will Sammon of The Athletic reports. (May 8 — 49d ago) [KNOWN] Justin Hagenman (Relief Pitcher) — Ribs (Not Specified): The Mets placed Hagenman on the 60-day injured list Saturday due to a rib fracture. (May 8 — 49d ago) Phillies: [KNOWN] Brad Keller (RP) — Forearm (Right): Keller picked up the save Wednesday against the Athletics, allowing no runs on one hit and two walks in the ninth inning. He struck out one. (Jun 16 — 9d ago) [NEW] Johan Rojas (Center Fielder) — Elbow (Right): Rojas (suspension) underwent surgery Friday to repair the UCL in his right elbow and will face an expected recovery timeline of 6-to-8 months, Scott Lauber of The Philadelphia Inquirer reports. (Jun 25 — 1d ago) [NEW] Adolis Garcia (RF) — Lat (Right): The Phillies announced that Garcia underwent successful surgery Wednesday to repair a torn right lat, Lochlahn March of The Philadelphia Inquirer reports. (Jun 24 — 2d ago)

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

HEAT CHECK

Bo Bichette: 1.110 OPS in Last 15 Days
1.110
That 1.110 OPS spans the last 15 days (58 PA) against a .688 season baseline, a 0.422 swing. He has 10 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
Juan Soto: 1.340 OPS in Last 15 Days
1.340
The last 15 days sample runs 40 PA: a 1.340 OPS versus .966 for the season, 0.374 above his norm. He has 17 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.

REPLACEMENT

Brandon Marsh (.733 vs LHP) replaces Adolis Garcia at RF tonight
.875
Brandon Marsh draws LHP Zach Thornton from the 5th spot. He carries a .733 OPS vs LHP (77 AB) — a tough platoon spot relative to his .875 season line. On the injury report for 2 days (Lat).

SITUATIONAL

NYM's bullpen has covered 13.3 innings over the last 3 games
13.3
That is 13.3 relief innings in 3 games, led by Austin Warren (2.3) and Jonathan Pintaro (2). PHI's pen has thrown 10.3 over the same span.

FANTASY PICKUPS

Derek Hill
.746 OPS
Pickup vs Zach Thornton (8.41 xERA) — .746 OPS, bats 6th.
Zack Wheeler
3.01 xERA
Streamer vs NYM — 3.01 xERA · 9.1 K/9 · 0.88 WHIP.

All research from this day

About this analysis

Who made it: Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data: Daily picks first stored June 26, 2026 at 1:34 PM ET.
Odds record: The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, fanatics, betrivers, caesars, draftkings, betmgm.
Accountability: Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.

Props on this game

GARY'S PICK
ALEC BOHMH+R+RBI UNDER 1.5
MLBPhillies· +125
✓ CASHED · ACTUAL 0
Alec Bohm enters tonight's matchup in the midst of a significant offensive slump, having failed to record more than one hit in any of his last ten games and averaging a meager .231 over that span. His situational production has completely stalled, with combined hits, runs, and RBIs (HRR) totals of 1, 1, 1, 0, and 1 over his last five outings. While the Phillies' offense as a whole is surging, Bohm has been the outlier. Tonight he faces left-hander Zach Thornton; Bohm possesses a negative platoon split against lefties this season, hitting just .220 with a .677 OPS. Even against a struggling starter, Bohm's inability to clear this 1.5 line in five consecutive games makes the under a high-value play at plus-money. The volume floor is there as the clean-up hitter, but his current contact quality suggests he is more likely to extend his streak of 1-HRR performances than to suddenly explode for a multi-hit or multi-RBI night.
Alec Bohm
H+R+RBI under 1.5
+125 · CASHED · ACTUAL 0
Phillies
Alec Bohm enters tonight's matchup in the midst of a significant offensive slump, having failed to record more than one hit in any of his last ten games and averaging a meager .231 over that span. His situational production has completely stalled, with combined hits, runs, and RBIs (HRR) totals of 1, 1, 1, 0, and 1 over his last five outings.
While the Phillies' offense as a whole is surging, Bohm has been the outlier. Tonight he faces left-hander Zach Thornton; Bohm possesses a negative platoon split against lefties this season, hitting just .220 with a .677 OPS.
Even against a struggling starter, Bohm's inability to clear this 1.5 line in five consecutive games makes the under a high-value play at plus-money. The volume floor is there as the clean-up hitter, but his current contact quality suggests he is more likely to extend his streak of 1-HRR performances than to suddenly explode for a multi-hit or multi-RBI night.
GARY'S PICK
JUAN SOTOHITS UNDER 0.5
MLBMets· +155
✓ CASHED · ACTUAL 0
Betting against Juan Soto to record a hit is usually a perilous endeavor, but the specific context of tonight's game creates a unique opportunity. Soto is currently listed as day-to-day with a back injury, a condition that notoriously saps rotational power and slows bat speed—critical components when facing a pitcher of Zack Wheeler's caliber. Wheeler is arguably the most dominant starter in the NL right now, boasting a 0.88 WHIP and a specific dominance over left-handed hitters like Soto, holding them to a .188 batting average this season. Furthermore, the Mets are in a state of organizational flux after firing their manager this morning and entering this series on a six-game losing streak. Soto has already gone hitless in two of his last five games, and facing Wheeler's 95.3 mph fastball while physically compromised significantly lowers his probability of reaching safely via a hit. At +155, the price for a generational talent facing the league's most dominant arm while injured is a sharp calculated risk.
Juan Soto
Hits under 0.5
+155 · CASHED · ACTUAL 0
Mets
Betting against Juan Soto to record a hit is usually a perilous endeavor, but the specific context of tonight's game creates a unique opportunity. Soto is currently listed as day-to-day with a back injury, a condition that notoriously saps rotational power and slows bat speed—critical components when facing a pitcher of Zack Wheeler's caliber.
Wheeler is arguably the most dominant starter in the NL right now, boasting a 0.88 WHIP and a specific dominance over left-handed hitters like Soto, holding them to a .188 batting average this season. Furthermore, the Mets are in a state of organizational flux after firing their manager this morning and entering this series on a six-game losing streak.
Soto has already gone hitless in two of his last five games, and facing Wheeler's 95.3 mph fastball while physically compromised significantly lowers his probability of reaching safely via a hit. At +155, the price for a generational talent facing the league's most dominant arm while injured is a sharp calculated risk.

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