MLB · Fri, Jun 26 · 7:45 PM

Cubs at Brewers

O/U 7.5 · RL Brewers -3.5 · American Family Field

GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Cubs· -111

Under the closed roof of American Family Field, the lights are bright and the stakes are high as the Chicago Cubs and Milwaukee Brewers renew their bitter NL Central rivalry with both clubs riding impressive four-game winning streaks. But while both teams come in hot, the pitching matchup and active roster situations point heavily toward the home team tonight. The Cubs are dealing with a severe, fast-developing pitching crisis. Just today, they placed reliever Phil Maton on the 15-day IL, joining recent additions Ben Brown (neck stress reaction yesterday) and Edward Cabrera (hamstring strain on Wednesday) on the sidelines. This sudden strain has left Chicago's bullpen highly vulnerable, as key relievers like Webb, Thielbar, and Thornton are running on consecutive days of usage. With Colin Rea on the mound—who has struggled on the road to the tune of a 7.19 ERA and allows an .815 OPS to lefties—the Cubs are forced to lean heavily on a depleted relief corps. Meanwhile, Milwaukee offers complete stability and a historic edge on the bump. Jacob Misiorowski is throwing like a Cy Young favorite, carrying a 1.45 ERA and 0.75 WHIP. His recent form is staggering: a 0.75 ERA and 50 strikeouts to just 5 walks over his last five starts (36.0 innings). The neutral environment of the closed dome perfectly suits his 100.2 mph fastball. Additionally, the Brewers' lineup features five left-handed bats, including Brice Turang (.941 OPS against right-handers), designed to exploit Rea's clear platoon weakness. If the game does get to the late frames, the Brewers boast a fully rested high-leverage bullpen with Megill, Uribe, and Kuhnel all sitting on two-plus days of rest. The strongest argument against backing the Brewers is the red-hot form of the Cubs' offense, which generated a 121 wRC+ in June and features Pete Crow-Armstrong on a career-best 26-game on-base streak. However, Crow-Armstrong is 0-for-7 with 5 strikeouts in his career against Misiorowski, demonstrating how the ace's velocity can neutralize Chicago's momentum. In a game where one team has a fully rested bullpen and a historically dominant starter, and the other is navigating a fresh pitching crisis, the run line is the sharp play. The Brewers have already outscored the Cubs 19-5 across three wins this season, and they are primed to cover the margin again tonight.

The Cubs are dealing with a severe, fast-developing pitching crisis. Just today, they placed reliever Phil Maton on the 15-day IL, joining recent additions Ben Brown (neck stress reaction yesterday) and Edward Cabrera (hamstring strain on Wednesday) on the sidelines. This sudden strain has left Chicago's bullpen highly vulnerable, as key relievers like Webb, Thielbar, and Thornton are running on consecutive days of usage. With Colin Rea on the mound—who has struggled on the road to the tune of a 7.19 ERA and allows an .815 OPS to lefties—the Cubs are forced to lean heavily on a depleted relief corps.

Meanwhile, Milwaukee offers complete stability and a historic edge on the bump. Jacob Misiorowski is throwing like a Cy Young favorite, carrying a 1.45 ERA and 0.75 WHIP. His recent form is staggering: a 0.75 ERA and 50 strikeouts to just 5 walks over his last five starts (36.0 innings). The neutral environment of the closed dome perfectly suits his 100.2 mph fastball. Additionally, the Brewers' lineup features five left-handed bats, including Brice Turang (.941 OPS against right-handers), designed to exploit Rea's clear platoon weakness. If the game does get to the late frames, the Brewers boast a fully rested high-leverage bullpen with Megill, Uribe, and Kuhnel all sitting on two-plus days of rest.

The strongest argument against backing the Brewers is the red-hot form of the Cubs' offense, which generated a 121 wRC+ in June and features Pete Crow-Armstrong on a career-best 26-game on-base streak. However, Crow-Armstrong is 0-for-7 with 5 strikeouts in his career against Misiorowski, demonstrating how the ace's velocity can neutralize Chicago's momentum. In a game where one team has a fully rested bullpen and a historically dominant starter, and the other is navigating a fresh pitching crisis, the run line is the sharp play. The Brewers have already outscored the Cubs 19-5 across three wins this season, and they are primed to cover the margin again tonight.

The pick & result

Published pick: Brewers -1.5 -111
Published odds: -111
Result: Won
Final score: 2-6

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The read

Injuries noted

Brewers: [NEW] DL Hall (RP) — Pectoral (Left): Hall (pectoral) hopes to gain clearance to resume throwing during a checkup Tuesday, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports. (Jun 23 — 3d ago) [NEW] Brandon Lockridge (LF) — Knee (Right): Lockridge's timeline for a return has been pushed back to late July after imaging showed a chondral flap in his right patella, Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports. (Jun 23 — 3d ago) [NEW] Coleman Crow (SP) — Forearm (Right): Crow (forearm) will throw a bullpen session Tuesday, Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports. (Jun 23 — 3d ago) [NEW] Logan Henderson (SP) — Back (Not Specified): Henderson (back) is aiming to begin a rehab assignment Sunday, Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports. (Jun 23 — 3d ago) [KNOWN] Brian Fitzpatrick (RP) — Elbow (Left): Fitzpatrick (elbow) has been diagnosed with a left UCL strain and will get a second opinion to determine if he needs Tommy John surgery, MLB.com reports. (Jun 9 — 16d ago) [KNOWN] Carlos Rodriguez (RP) — Shoulder (Right): The Brewers placed Rodriguez on the 15-day injured list Monday due to a right shoulder impingement, MLB.com reports. (Jun 8 — 17d ago) [KNOWN] Rob Zastryzny (RP) — Shoulder (Left): The Brewers reinstated Zastrzyny (shoulder/ribs) from the 60-day injured list Sunday. (Jun 3 — 23d ago) [KNOWN] Angel Zerpa (Relief Pitcher) — Elbow (Left): The Brewers transferred Zerpa (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Sunday. (May 31 — 26d ago) Cubs: [KNOWN] Jameson Taillon (SP) — Hamstring (Left): Taillon (hamstring) is expected to be sidelined until after the All-Star break, Vinnie Duber of the Chicago Sun-Times reports. (Jun 9 — 16d ago) [KNOWN] Hunter Harvey (Relief Pitcher) — Triceps (Right): The Cubs moved Harvey (triceps) from the 15-day IL to the 60-day IL on Sunday. (May 17 — 40d ago) [KNOWN] Porter Hodge (Relief Pitcher) — Elbow (Right): The Cubs transferred Hodge (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Friday, Taylor McGregor of Marquee Sports Network reports. (May 8 — 49d ago) [KNOWN] Julian Merryweather (Relief Pitcher) — Hamstring (Left): Merryweather (hamstring) will begin a rehab assignment with the Twins' rookie-level Florida Complex League affiliate Tuesday, Theodore Tollefson of ZoneCoverage.com reports. (May 8 — 49d ago) [KNOWN] Cade Horton (Starting Pitcher) — Elbow (Right): The Cubs transferred Horton (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Saturday, Andy Martinez of Marquee Sports Network reports. (May 8 — 49d ago) [NEW] Phil Maton (RP) — Knee (Right): The Cubs placed Maton (knee) on the 15-day injured list Friday with a right knee injury, Taylor McGregor of Marquee Sports Network reports. (Jun 26 — 0d ago) [NEW] Ben Brown (RP) — Neck (Not Specified): Cubs manager Craig Counsell said Thursday that Brown has been diagnosed with a stress reaction in his neck and will have limited activity for the next month, 104.3 The Score reports. (Jun 25 — 1d ago) [NEW] Edward Cabrera (SP) — Hamstring (Left): Cabrera was diagnosed with a moderate-grade left hamstring strain Wednesday following an MRI and is without a return timeline, Taylor McGregor of Marquee Sports Network reports. (Jun 24 — 2d ago) [KNOWN] Riley Martin (RP) — Elbow (Left): The Cubs announced June 10 that Martin (elbow) has resumed playing catch, MLB.com reports. (Jun 21 — 4d ago) [KNOWN] Daniel Palencia (RP) — Elbow (Right): Palencia was diagnosed with a mild flexor strain in his right arm Saturday, Jesse Rogers of ESPN.com reports. (Jun 20 — 6d ago)

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

PLATOON EDGE

Brice Turang (bats L) gets a RHP from the 3rd spot
.941
Brice Turang's vs. Right line (.941 OPS, 201 AB) sits well above his .552 mark the other way (82 AB). Tonight's starter Colin Rea throws RHP, the hand he hits best.

HEAT CHECK

Pete Crow-Armstrong: 1.391 OPS in Last 15 Days
1.391
The last 15 days sample runs 55 PA: a 1.391 OPS versus .888 for the season, 0.503 above his norm. He has 17 home runs on the season.
Dansby Swanson: 1.010 OPS in Last 15 Days
1.010
The last 15 days sample runs 45 PA: a 1.010 OPS versus .678 for the season, 0.332 above his norm. He has 11 home runs on the season.

COOLING OFF

Christian Yelich: .506 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Colin Rea
.506
Christian Yelich's .506 OPS over the last 15 days (36 PA) trails his .734 season mark, down 0.228. Tonight he draws RHP Colin Rea — his weaker side: a .720 OPS vs RHP across 126 AB.

SITUATIONAL

13 bullpen innings in 3 games for CHC
13
Relievers have absorbed 13 innings over the last 3 games (Caleb Thielbar (2) and Tyler Ferguson (2) the heaviest). MIL's pen has thrown 11.7 over the same span.

REGRESSION

Nico Hoerner: .239 AVG vs .290 xBA
.290
Nico Hoerner is hitting .239 against a .290 expected average (xBA) over 360 plate appearances. His wOBA sits at .297 against a .326 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit above what he has actually posted.
Andrew Vaughn: .351 AVG vs .303 xBA
.303
Across 130 plate appearances, Andrew Vaughn carries a .351 average versus a .303 xBA. His wOBA sits at .420 against a .368 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit below what he has actually posted.

FANTASY PICKUPS

Brice Turang
.831 OPS
Pickup vs Colin Rea (5.52 xERA) — .831 OPS, bats 3rd.

All research from this day

About this analysis

Who made it: Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data: Daily picks first stored June 26, 2026 at 1:34 PM ET.
Odds record: The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, fanatics, betrivers, caesars, betmgm, draftkings.
Accountability: Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.

Props on this game

GARY'S PICK
JAKE BAUERSHITS OVER 0.5
MLBBrewers· -150
LOST · ACTUAL 0
Jake Bauers is in a prime position to capitalize on Colin Rea's significant platoon struggles. Rea has been vulnerable against left-handed bats all season, surrendering a .308 average and a 42.4% hard-hit rate. Bauers, batting 5th in a Brewers lineup that ranks as the most productive offense in baseball for the month of June, provides steady contact and power from the left side. Given Rea's 1.40 WHIP and tendency to allow baserunners to southpaws, Bauers should see multiple opportunities with runners on base in a hitter-friendly environment. While Rea is a ground-ball specialist, his inability to miss bats against lefties (only 59 Ks in 79.1 IP total) suggests Bauers will have ample opportunity to put the ball in play and secure a hit.
Jake Bauers
Hits over 0.5
-150 · LOST · ACTUAL 0
Brewers
Jake Bauers is in a prime position to capitalize on Colin Rea's significant platoon struggles. Rea has been vulnerable against left-handed bats all season, surrendering a .308 average and a 42.4% hard-hit rate.
Bauers, batting 5th in a Brewers lineup that ranks as the most productive offense in baseball for the month of June, provides steady contact and power from the left side. Given Rea's 1.40 WHIP and tendency to allow baserunners to southpaws, Bauers should see multiple opportunities with runners on base in a hitter-friendly environment.
While Rea is a ground-ball specialist, his inability to miss bats against lefties (only 59 Ks in 79.1 IP total) suggests Bauers will have ample opportunity to put the ball in play and secure a hit.
GARY'S PICK
PETE CROW-ARMSTRONGHITS UNDER 0.5
MLBCubs· +110
✓ CASHED · ACTUAL 0
While Pete Crow-Armstrong is currently riding a career-best 26-game on-base streak and a 14-game hitting streak, he faces the most difficult matchup in baseball tonight. Jacob Misiorowski is the NL Cy Young favorite for a reason, having allowed just three earned runs since the end of April while maintaining a staggering 1.45 ERA. The most critical factor is Misiorowski's total dominance over left-handed hitters, who are batting just .112 against him this season. With 138 strikeouts in 93 innings, Misiorowski generates misses at an elite rate, and against a Cubs lineup that can be high-volume in strikeouts, the probability of PCA extending his hit streak against a pitcher allowing fewer than 0.5 hits per inning is statistically low. This is a play on the pitcher's elite suppression metrics over the hitter's current form.
Pete Crow-Armstrong
Hits under 0.5
+110 · CASHED · ACTUAL 0
Cubs
While Pete Crow-Armstrong is currently riding a career-best 26-game on-base streak and a 14-game hitting streak, he faces the most difficult matchup in baseball tonight. Jacob Misiorowski is the NL Cy Young favorite for a reason, having allowed just three earned runs since the end of April while maintaining a staggering 1.45 ERA.
The most critical factor is Misiorowski's total dominance over left-handed hitters, who are batting just .112 against him this season. With 138 strikeouts in 93 innings, Misiorowski generates misses at an elite rate, and against a Cubs lineup that can be high-volume in strikeouts, the probability of PCA extending his hit streak against a pitcher allowing fewer than 0.5 hits per inning is statistically low.
This is a play on the pitcher's elite suppression metrics over the hitter's current form.

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