MLB · Wed, Jun 24 · 6:40 PM

Mariners at Pirates

O/U 7.5 · RL Pirates -1.5 · PNC Park

GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Mariners· -116

We have a beautiful night for baseball at PNC Park as the Pittsburgh Pirates host the Seattle Mariners in a pivotal mid-season clash under clear skies, warm 78°F temperatures, and a 5 mph breeze blowing out to center field. While the public may look at the Pirates’ recent slide of losing eight of their last nine games and immediately run the other way, the market has installed Pittsburgh as a -116 home favorite for a clear reason: starting pitcher Braxton Ashcraft and bullpen rest. Ashcraft has been the definition of stability, yielding two or fewer earned runs in four of his last five starts, supported by a stellar 2.99 xERA that indicates his 3.18 ERA is entirely sustainable. Crucially, his ground-ball profile (1.16 GO/AO) keeps the ball out of the air, making him highly insulated against the wind blowing out tonight. This ground-ball stability stands in stark contrast to Mariners starter Bryan Woo, whose extreme fly-ball profile (0.60 GO/AO) makes him highly vulnerable in these warm, windy conditions. Woo is a high-variance arm who has been tagged for four or more runs in three of his last five starts, and tonight he faces a Pirates lineup built to punish his primary weapon. Woo throws his four-seam fastball 49% of the time, playing right into the strengths of Brandon Lowe (.725 SLG vs. four-seamers) and Bryan Reynolds (.624 SLG vs. four-seamers). Pittsburgh enters tonight hitting the ball with immense authority, posting a 51.9% hard-hit rate over their last three games, which spells disaster for Woo, who allows a high 44.5% hard-hit rate and a 7.3% barrel rate. The strongest argument against the Pirates is Seattle's clean defense (.986 fielding percentage) and their ability to optimize platoon advantages by stacking lefties against Ashcraft's splits. However, the game’s final third heavily favors the home side due to bullpen fatigue. Seattle’s top-tier relief arms, including Andres Munoz (5.08 ERA) and Jose Ferrer, are highly taxed after throwing in two of the last three days. In contrast, Pittsburgh’s closer Gregory Soto (3.34 ERA) and their key bridge relievers have not pitched since June 21 and are fully rested. With Ashcraft holding the line on the ground and a fresh bullpen ready to shut the door, the Pirates have the perfect situational edge to snap their skid at a very reasonable -116 price.

This ground-ball stability stands in stark contrast to Mariners starter Bryan Woo, whose extreme fly-ball profile (0.60 GO/AO) makes him highly vulnerable in these warm, windy conditions. Woo is a high-variance arm who has been tagged for four or more runs in three of his last five starts, and tonight he faces a Pirates lineup built to punish his primary weapon. Woo throws his four-seam fastball 49% of the time, playing right into the strengths of Brandon Lowe (.725 SLG vs. four-seamers) and Bryan Reynolds (.624 SLG vs. four-seamers). Pittsburgh enters tonight hitting the ball with immense authority, posting a 51.9% hard-hit rate over their last three games, which spells disaster for Woo, who allows a high 44.5% hard-hit rate and a 7.3% barrel rate.

The strongest argument against the Pirates is Seattle's clean defense (.986 fielding percentage) and their ability to optimize platoon advantages by stacking lefties against Ashcraft's splits. However, the game’s final third heavily favors the home side due to bullpen fatigue. Seattle’s top-tier relief arms, including Andres Munoz (5.08 ERA) and Jose Ferrer, are highly taxed after throwing in two of the last three days. In contrast, Pittsburgh’s closer Gregory Soto (3.34 ERA) and their key bridge relievers have not pitched since June 21 and are fully rested. With Ashcraft holding the line on the ground and a fresh bullpen ready to shut the door, the Pirates have the perfect situational edge to snap their skid at a very reasonable -116 price.

The pick & result

Published pick: Pirates ML -116
Published odds: -116
Result: Won
Final score: 1-11

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The read

Injuries noted

Pirates: [KNOWN] Liover Peguero (Shortstop) — Undisclosed (Not Specified): The Phillies reassigned Peguero to minor-league camp Sunday. (Jun 18 — 6d ago) [NEW] Jared Jones (SP) — Undisclosed (Not Specified): Jones had additional imaging on his right elbow come back clean and played catch Tuesday, though manager Don Kelly indicated it's too early to know if the right-hander will be ready for his next turn through the rotation, Colin Beazley of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports. (Jun 23 — 1d ago) [NEW] Konnor Griffin (SS) — Forearm (Right): Manager Don Kelly announced that Griffin (forearm) will begin a rehab assignment with Double-A Altoona on Tuesday, Colin Beazley of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports. (Jun 23 — 1d ago) [NEW] Wilber Dotel (RP) — Lat (Right): Dotel (lat) tossed a bullpen session Saturday, MLB.com reports. (Jun 21 — 2d ago) [KNOWN] Oneil Cruz (CF) — Hand (Left): Pirates general manager Ben Cherington said Sunday that Cruz (hand) is facing an estimated recovery timeline of 4-6 weeks, Danny Demilio of PittsburghBaseballNow.com reports. (Jun 14 — 10d ago) [KNOWN] Chris Devenski (RP) — Illness (Not Specified): Devenski (illness) was transferred from the 15-day IL to the 60-day IL on Sunday. (Jun 7 — 17d ago) [KNOWN] Will Robertson (Left Fielder) — Undisclosed (Not Specified): The Orioles reassigned Robertson to minor-league camp Wednesday, Jacob Calvin Meyer of The Baltimore Sun reports. (May 8 — 47d ago) Mariners: [KNOWN] Carlos Vargas (Relief Pitcher) — Lat (Right): Mariners general manager Justin Hollander said Tuesday that Vargas (lat) recently began a throwing program and could be ready to return from the 60-day injured list around the Aug. 3 trade deadline, Zac Hereth of 710 AM Seattle Sports reports. (Jun 17 — 7d ago) [KNOWN] Will Wilson (3B) — Thumb (Left): Wilson (thumb) has gone 3-for-9 with two RBI and a 1:2 BB:K in his first three rehab games between High-A Everett and Triple-A Tacoma. (Jun 17 — 7d ago) [KNOWN] Cooper Criswell (RP) — Pectoral (Right): Criswell was diagnosed with a Grade 1-plus pectoral strain Tuesday, Daniel Kramer of MLB.com reports. (Jun 16 — 7d ago) [KNOWN] Brendan Donovan (3B) — Groin (Left): Donovan (groin) began a running progression Tuesday, Daniel Kramer of MLB.com reports. (Jun 16 — 7d ago) [KNOWN] Matt Brash (RP) — Lat (Right): General manager Justin Hollander said Tuesday that Brash was diagnosed with a Grade 1 strain in his right lat, Shannon Drayer of SeattleSports.com reports. (Jun 16 — 7d ago) [KNOWN] Joe Jacques (Relief Pitcher) — Undisclosed (Not Specified): The Mets signed Jacques to a minor-league contract Wednesday, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports. (May 8 — 47d ago)

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

STARTER FORM

Bryan Woo: 5.89 ERA over his last 3 starts
5.89
The last 3 times out: 18.3 innings, 12 earned runs, 19 hits. That 5.89 ERA runs 1.95 over his 3.94 season number.

HEAT CHECK

Bryan Reynolds: 1.255 OPS in Last 15 Days
1.255
Over the last 15 days (50 PA) he is at a 1.255 OPS, up 0.372 on his .883 season mark. He has 11 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.

HR THREAT

Brandon Lowe to go deep
+320
Brandon Lowe is in an elite position to utilize his power against Mariners starter Bryan Woo. Woo has struggled significantly away from Seattle this season, posting a 5.93 road ERA compared to 2.00 at home.

RUNNING GAME

Green light: Seattle Mariners run, and Endy Rodriguez has caught just 10%
10% CS
Seattle Mariners steal 0.8 bags a game (60 on the season) and Endy Rodriguez has thrown out 2 of 20 runners (10%). Everything about tonight says they keep running.
Pittsburgh Pirates like to run — Cal Raleigh (34% caught) is the wrong catcher to test
34% CS
Cal Raleigh owns a 34% caught-stealing rate (10 of 29) and Pittsburgh Pirates run anyway — 0.9 steals a game. Strength on strength on the bases.

All research from this day

About this analysis

Who made it: Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data: Daily picks first stored June 24, 2026 at 10:44 AM ET.
Odds record: The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, fanatics, caesars, draftkings, betmgm, betrivers.
Accountability: Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.

Props on this game

GARY'S PICK
JULIO RODRIGUEZTOTAL BASES UNDER 1.5
MLBMariners· -145
LOST · ACTUAL 2
Julio Rodriguez is currently in a significant slump, batting just .194 over his last 10 games. During this stretch, he has failed to clear the 1.5 total bases line in 80% of his appearances (8 out of 10). He faces a difficult matchup in Braxton Ashcraft, who utilizes high-velocity heaters (97.1 mph) and two secondary pitches (curveball and slider) that both generate whiff rates above 31%. This matches up poorly for a Mariners offense that has posted a 26.4% whiff rate over their last three games. Rodriguez's season average against right-handed pitching (.240) is lower than his mark against lefties, and Ashcraft's ability to generate swing-and-miss depth makes a multi-hit or extra-base hit performance unlikely for the struggling outfielder.
Julio Rodriguez
Total Bases under 1.5
-145 · LOST · ACTUAL 2
Mariners
Julio Rodriguez is currently in a significant slump, batting just .194 over his last 10 games. During this stretch, he has failed to clear the 1.5 total bases line in 80% of his appearances (8 out of 10).
He faces a difficult matchup in Braxton Ashcraft, who utilizes high-velocity heaters (97.1 mph) and two secondary pitches (curveball and slider) that both generate whiff rates above 31%. This matches up poorly for a Mariners offense that has posted a 26.4% whiff rate over their last three games.
Rodriguez's season average against right-handed pitching (.240) is lower than his mark against lefties, and Ashcraft's ability to generate swing-and-miss depth makes a multi-hit or extra-base hit performance unlikely for the struggling outfielder.
GARY'S PICK
BRYAN REYNOLDSTOTAL BASES OVER 1.5
MLBPirates· +125
✓ CASHED · ACTUAL 3
Bryan Reynolds is currently the most productive hitter in the matchup, entering the game with a .432 average (16-for-37) over his last 10 games. His production is heavily concentrated at PNC Park, where he maintains a 1.021 OPS and .333 batting average this season. The matchup against Bryan Woo is highly favorable; Woo has struggled significantly away from Seattle, posting a 5.93 ERA on the road. As a fly-ball pitcher (0.60 GO/AO), Woo is particularly vulnerable in tonight's environment, which features 80-degree temperatures and wind blowing out to left field. Reynolds has recorded multiple total bases in 4 of his last 10 games, including a 10-TB performance, and his current hot streak combined with Woo's road struggles provides a high ceiling for extra-base hits.
Bryan Reynolds
Total Bases over 1.5
+125 · CASHED · ACTUAL 3
Pirates
Bryan Reynolds is currently the most productive hitter in the matchup, entering the game with a .432 average (16-for-37) over his last 10 games. His production is heavily concentrated at PNC Park, where he maintains a 1.021 OPS and .333 batting average this season.
The matchup against Bryan Woo is highly favorable; Woo has struggled significantly away from Seattle, posting a 5.93 ERA on the road. As a fly-ball pitcher (0.60 GO/AO), Woo is particularly vulnerable in tonight's environment, which features 80-degree temperatures and wind blowing out to left field.
Reynolds has recorded multiple total bases in 4 of his last 10 games, including a 10-TB performance, and his current hot streak combined with Woo's road struggles provides a high ceiling for extra-base hits.
THE LONG SHOT
BRANDON LOWEHR OVER 0.5
MLBPirates· +400
LOST · ACTUAL 0
Brandon Lowe is a high-volume power hitter who matches up perfectly against Mariners starter Bryan Woo. Woo is an extreme fly-ball pitcher (0.59 GO/AO) who struggles significantly away from Seattle, carrying a 5.93 road ERA. Lowe hit a home run in the series opener yesterday and faces a pitcher who allows a high 44.5% hard-hit rate and a 7.3% barrel rate. With the weather clear and 78 degrees at PNC Park, conditions favor the long ball, especially for a hitter like Lowe who bats second and will see maximum plate appearances. His season pace (18 HR in 284 AB) suggests a roughly 23% chance of homering in any 4-AB game, which exceeds the 20% break-even requirement for the +400 odds.
Brandon Lowe
HR over 0.5
+400 · LOST · ACTUAL 0
Pirates
Brandon Lowe is a high-volume power hitter who matches up perfectly against Mariners starter Bryan Woo. Woo is an extreme fly-ball pitcher (0.59 GO/AO) who struggles significantly away from Seattle, carrying a 5.93 road ERA.
Lowe hit a home run in the series opener yesterday and faces a pitcher who allows a high 44.5% hard-hit rate and a 7.3% barrel rate. With the weather clear and 78 degrees at PNC Park, conditions favor the long ball, especially for a hitter like Lowe who bats second and will see maximum plate appearances.
His season pace (18 HR in 284 AB) suggests a roughly 23% chance of homering in any 4-AB game, which exceeds the 20% break-even requirement for the +400 odds.

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